Rollercoaster Campaign Week Post-Debate

The Sherrill-Ciattarelli campaign has seen a rollercoaster of a week. Starting on Sunday, the first debate between the two candidates showcased their styles and messages before a live audience as well as broadcast. Both kept their messaging largely middle-of-the-road, focusing on bread-and-butter issues of affordability, housing, and largely side-stepping culture war subjects. Sherrill, however, did say she would defend the right to choose in an atmosphere where, with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Republican-led efforts have significantly or completely rolled back abortion access and women’s reproductive health options in other states. Sherrill held firm to her assertion that she would declare a state of emergency regarding utility bill expenses and freeze price increases, although many, including Governor Murphy, had questioned how a governor would be able to do so.
“In 1990, Jack took his first of many votes to raise your taxes,” she said in her opening remarks. “That was the same year I took my first of many oaths to support and defend the Constitution of the United States. He’ll support abortion bans, I’ll support your personal freedoms. He’ll do whatever Trump tells him to do, and I will fight anybody to work for you.”
Ciattarelli framed himself as the candidate of change, saying he would be a “hands-on CEO governor” who would fix the problems. He also made a dig at Sherrill, who was born in Virginia, rather than being Jersey-born. Ciattarelli spoke of a public education and public safety crisis in the state. “With all the overdevelopment, we’re the worst place in the country in which to do business,” he said. “These are the issues. My opponent will blame all these things on the president. Make no mistake—her party has controlled our legislature for 25 years. The party has controlled the executive branch for eight years.”
On taxation, Ciattarelli defended President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” as being good for families, drawing mixed reactions from the audience. Each candidate drew in the president, either as a prop or a pillory. Ciattarelli seemed to show he is not wholly of climate-denier stock, admitting in a subtle way, that human activity likely plays a hand in climate change, and emphasized diversifying energy sources without abandoning natural gas, a fossil fuel. He was quick to pivot to overdevelopment as being a key factor in increased flooding damage. Sherrill referred to her service on the Science, Space, and Technology Committee and said that she was committed to reducing energy costs while simultaneously shifting the grid away from carbon-emitting processes which are accelerating climate change.
On taxation, the two traded barbs. Ciattarelli said that he would lower income and property taxes in the state, presumably necessitating serious cuts in state spending. “It took us 238 years to get to a $36 billion budget,” he said. “In eight years, we went from $36 billion to $59 billion. Can anybody tell me their life is better off than it was eight years ago? Has anything gotten better? I’ve been here for 64 years. I never remember it being this bad: the affordability crisis. Look at your property tax bill. What’s your monthly electric bill? Public safety, public education, overdevelopment, and the worst place in the country to do business. That’s why we are where we are today.”
Sherrill fired back, taking aim at Ciattarelli’s own time in the New Jersey Assembly. “Sixty-four years and for over half that time, he’s been raising taxes on all of us. I can see why your career as a CPA was so short-lived, because your math just doesn’t add up, Jack. So that’s why, as we look at a $5 billion hole that we’re facing from the federal government—as we’re working hard to make sure that we’re paying into pensions, at least one of us, to make sure that people have the hard-earned dollars that they’ve earned over time, as we’re working to make sure that we have the best public school system in the nation.”
The Democrat appeared to avoid making a hard promise on taxation. “I’m not going to commit to anything right now, because I’m not just going to tell you what you want to hear. Now, Jack talks about raising the sales tax all the time, and yet tonight, he said this because, like we know, he’ll tell you whatever you want to hear. Well, I’m going to tell you the truth. I’m going to be fiscally responsible with your money. I’m going to drive down your costs at every level, and I’m going to make sure your kids have great opportunities here in the state of New Jersey.”
One spotlight moment during the debate was, as the candidates were taking questions from students, Ciattarelli offered a fist-bump to a well-dressed 12-year-old student. The student hesitated and then declined, leaving Jack hanging for an awkward moment and retreating with a shrug. The student later said to the media later that he had wanted to seem neutral and impartial and wouldn’t have fist bumped Sherrill, either.
Since the debate, where Sherrill had been polling about 8 points ahead of Ciattarelli, a number of organizations responded, making their own statements or releasing endorsements.
Sherrill gained an endorsement from the National Resources Defense Council, an environmental organization. “In Congress, Sherrill delivered results for the state by securing funding to make communities more flood resilient, replace lead water pipes, address pollution, and protect open spaces,” NRDC said in a statement. “As governor she has a bold plan to lower utility costs and invest in clean, cheap power generation while holding PJM, the regional grid operator, accountable for mismanagement. Her opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, dismisses PJM’s role in creating the current energy affordability crises and supports President Trump’s repeal of clean energy generation incentives.”
Ciattarelli thanked the New Jersey Fraternal Order of Police for their endorsement, saying, “"I am honored to have the faith, trust, and confidence of the @njfop leadership and, of course, their membership. As Governor, I will do everything in my power to support law enforcement - and their families. Working in close partnership, we can and will make communities all across New Jersey safe. In a number of ways, the job of law-enforcement has never been more difficult, which is why recruitment, retention and morale is down. We can change all that by restoring respect for authority, law and order and, most of all, the men and women in blue who are trained and dedicated professionals very much committed to serving and protecting. Law-enforcement needs the support of our political leadership. As Governor, they will have it from me, the Attorney General, and my entire administration."
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Democratic US Senator Andy Kim hailed Sherrill following the debate. “Mikie Sherrill showed tonight that she’s ready on day one to tackle the challenges our state faces and move New Jersey forward,” said Kim. “Jack Ciattarelli continues to show that he just wants the job for his own ambition and that he’ll do and say anything, even at the expense of New Jersey families. I’ve known Mikie as a public servant and I’ve worked alongside her fighting for issues that impact people every day. She’s on our side.”
Mid-week, an Emerson Poll reported that Ciattarelli and Sherrill were essentially tied, representing the first time Jack had shown parity with his opponent. The poll showed both candidates standing at about 43% with the balance undecided. According to Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball, “Young voters, under 40, break for Sherrill by large margins, 58% to 24%. The race tightens to seven points among voters in their 40s, with Sherrill leading 47% to 40%, then Ciattarelli flips the script among voters over 50, leading Sherrill 52% to 36% among this group.”
A second debate between the candidates was announced for October 8, to be hosted by the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.
While hosting a civility event with State Senator Jon Bramnick, defeated by Ciattarelli in the Republican primary, State Senator Joe Cryan urged his fellow Democrats to rally harder around their nominee, apparently disappointed by Sherrill’s reception by the debate audience.
The bombshell of the week came Thursday, with CBS News reporting an explosive development where the National Archives had released Sherrill’s complete, unredacted military personnel file, including her private insurance information, social security number, and information about her family, following an information request by Nick De Gregorio, a close Ciattarelli ally.
“The disclosure potentially violates the Privacy Act of 1974 and exemptions established under the Freedom of Information Act,” CBS reported.
The Democratic Governors Association swiftly condemned the error. “This illegal and targeted weaponization of the federal government by the Trump Administration against Mikie Sherrill should send chills down the spine of every veteran and every American. The Ciattarelli campaign’s decision to knowingly distribute Mikie’s unredacted military records, in violation of the law and in defiance of clear protocol from the National Archives, shows that there is no low they will not stoop to in a desperate effort to try to sway this election. Even after New Jersey has already shown Jack Ciattarelli the door twice, his disgraceful and unlawful conduct in this race will go down as a black mark on his failed political career.”
CBS reported that the National Archives and Records Administration said in an email, "The technician should NOT have released the entire record.”
Sherrill said, "That Jack Ciattarelli and the Trump administration are illegally weaponizing my records for political gain is a violation of anyone who has ever served our country. No veteran's record is safe."
In a statement, EMILY’s List president Jessica Mackler joined the condemnations. “The National Archives leak of Mikie Sherrill’s personal information is an illegal and disturbing act pushed by Jack Ciattarelli's team for political gain. Veterans, like Mikie Sherrill, fearlessly protected our country and should expect our country to protect their private information in return. This is just the latest example of the Trump administration weaponizing nonpartisan services of the federal government to help himself and his Republican allies, and the only way to stop their recklessness is to take back power by electing Democratic women up and down the ballot.”
De Gregorio himself said that he was “a little shocked and kind of disgusted” when he saw the social security number unredacted.
The Archives, CBS reported, apologized and admitted their mistake as Democratic leaders in Congress demanded a formal investigation into the matter.
