If Essex and Passaic can’t keep their two counties bottled up in CD11 with a run by state Senator Kristin Corrado (R-40), Republican leaders in those counties at first blush would appear more likely to back Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-26) than Assemblyman Tony Bucco (R-25).

The reason’s simple: self-interest.

This is how it appears to be going right now as Republicans try to figure out how to position a replacement candidate for retiring U.S. Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11).

Webber’s in. All in.

Bucco’s looking at it. Hard.

Corrado appears to be leaning away from it. Tough race last year. Draining. She just arrived in Trenton. Doesn’t feel like turning around and running for Congress. Plus, the former Passaic County Clerk insisted on a senate seat at the outset, because she didn’t want to have to run for reelection every two years like they do in the Assembly.

Congress doesn’t look like an option right now. Maybe at some point – but not now.

That irks Essex County GOP Chairman Al Barlas and Totowa chieftain Peter Murphy.

They would prefer a woman to put up against former Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill, who’s already raised $1.2 million and is sitting on $800K, and has the attention of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), and – her indivisible allies would argue – Frelinghuysen’s pelt on the wall.

They’re also jittery about a hard pro-life candidate like Webber (a Passaic native, he can argue) in this environment.

Isn’t that just giving the women’s movement more ammo at the worst possible time, they worry.

Webber doesn’t think so, and will make the case for ideological consistency. Moreover, other options – Kate Whitman Annis and Morris Freeholder Christine Myers – appear to have stalled at the moment, or to lack Passaic and Essex traction.

Webber can give them something. Bucco can’t.

Or so it would appear.

The 26th Legislative District includes pieces of Essex (Fairfield, North Caldwell, Verona, West Caldwell) and Passaic (West Milford).

Bucco’s 25th doesn’t include towns in those counties.

Now here comes the heavy political lift for Webber.

This is asking a lot – maybe too much, in fact, given how disorganized Morris is at the moment (or by nature), but a large part of Webber’s task is to organize Morris – with the galvanizing opportunity of his own Congressional candidacy to hold a seat Republicans have held going back to 1985. That’s tough unto itself. But given all the players and the ambitions (Morris Freeholder Tom Mastrangelo already has his toe in the congressional roil, as did Myers and Bucco’s apparently still mulling and so are others), it’s difficult to picture a deal holding together that would empower Essex and Passaic and deprive an assembly seat of one of those faithful toiling soldiers in Morris.

But that’s a Webber play.

Isn’t it?

The line in Passaic and Essex in exchange for chipping Essex an Assembly seat in the 26th.

Bucco can’t make that deal.

But…can Webber?

Wouldn’t Morris fall apart the second Essex and Passaic ink it?

If Mastrangelo – never making his penchant for Trenton secret – discovers that Webber gave away a Morris assembly seat for his own grand federal designs, wouldn’t he just run against Webber now?

Wouldn’t that be exactly the nudge Bucco needs to get in the race?

But as long as Morris – with no county party line – remains divided, a united Essex and Passaic have the upper hand.

Barlas backed Corrado for senate last year in LD40.

Now it’s Murphy’s turn to back Barlas for an assembly pick up in LD26.

But wouldn’t state Senator Joe Pennacchio (R-26) – newly having explored and having concluded that he doesn’t want to run for Congress – have to look askance at that encroachment into his realm?

We’ll protect you, Joe – would have to be part of the deal.

Joe backs Jay.

Al backs Jay.

Peter backs Jay.

Al and Peter back Joe.

Joe and Jay and Peter back Al.

Al – or someone among the elected officials he has at his fingertips in that portion of the 26th – gets an assembly seat.

No.

It’s too simple.

Almost like a children’s storybook.

This is Morris, not Hudson.

Neither Webber, nor anyone else, for that matter, could work with the expectation that another party or parties could believe something could hold in the weather of every-man-for-himself Morris.

For starters there’s Bucco (with a still-open exploratory committee) wanting to know what’s in it for him.

And yes, there is still that jittery, wish-we-could-run-a-woman atmosphere in Passaic and Essex. With Morris mangled, could anyone – Tony Sr. or anyone else in that county ever actually deliver on a political promise? They don’t have a line. They lack a cemented chair. It seems politically foolhardy.

As Webber strove to put together a framework to enhance his rock ribbed Reagan bonafides, Bucco had his head under another hood, examining the feasibility supposedly of settling this Morris nightmare of no line by holding a convention (before petitions are due) to create a line. Presumably he’d get the line and Webber wouldn’t.

Stay with me, Bucco could argue to Pasaic and Essex, and I’ll put together a plan that gives you a true longer-term partner.

Again, it was something promised for tomorrow that looked blurry at best today.

A source told InsiderNJ that Barlas and Murphy – infuriated by Morris – continued to scour the landscape for their own candidate, an alternative to Corrado – but “no one wants to run,” another source said. “They fear the money and time commitment.”

There was Webber.

Making his case.

Not dickering.

Not dallying.

All in.

Essex and Passaic stood back blinking.

Was there a nuclear option anywhere?

At least one person suspected that option was here.