• Independents lean slightly towards Trump, with 48% supporting him compared to 45% for Harris. Suburban voters, however, favor Harris by a small margin, 50% to 47%.
• Among new voters (those who did not vote in 2020), Harris has a significant advantage, leading 61% to 31%.
• Voters under 40 support Harris over Trump, 61% to 36%. Trump’s strongest base is among voters aged 50-69, where he leads Harris 57% to 40%. The swing vote appears to be among voters aged 40-49, who are evenly split at 49% each. Voters over 70 lean towards Trump, with 52% supporting him compared to 47% for Harris.
• Trump leads Harris among Protestant voters 58% to 40%, and among Roman Catholic voters 60% to 39%. Harris leads among atheists and agnostic voters, who break 84% to 13% in her favor, and those with no particular religious affiliation, who support her 56% to 39%.

Last month, Trump led Harris 51% to 45% in Pennsylvania among very likely voters, his support dropping two points this month to 49%, and Harris’ support increasing three points, from 45% to 48%.

In the U.S. Senate election between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 48% support Casey and 44% support McCormick; 8% are undecided. Since last month, Casey’s support among likely voters has stayed at 48%, while McCormick’s support among likely voters decreased from 47% to 44%.

“Six percent of Casey voters support Trump — compared to 1% of McCormick voters who support Harris,” Kimball added.

In the Attorney General election, 43% support Republican David Sunday and Democrat Eugene DePasquale respectively with 14% undecided.

President Biden holds a 38% job approval among Pennsylvania voters, while 54% have an unfavorable view of him. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro holds a 51% job approval, 31% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.

Forty-eight percent of voters have a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 47% have a favorable view of Donald Trump. Fifty-two percent have a negative view of Harris while 53% have a negative view of Trump.

Forty-three percent have a favorable view of Tim Walz, while 44% have a favorable view of JD Vance. Forty-three percent have a negative view of the Minnesota governor, while 49% have a negative view of the Ohio Senator.

Half of voters have a favorable view of their Senator Casey, while 45% have a favorable view of David McCormick. Forty-four percent have an unfavorable view of both the Senator and McCormick.

The economy is the top issue for 51% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, followed by threats to democracy (12%),  immigration (8%), housing affordability (6%), healthcare (6%), and abortion access (5%).

On the issue of fracking, voters were asked which presidential candidate they trust more to handle the issue. Half (50%) trust Trump more, while 43% trust Harris more. Eight percent trust neither candidate on the issue.