The Essex Factor in the Aftermath if Murphy Goes to a Democratic Administration

Booker, Murphy, and Menendez

The New Jersey source really didn’t want to talk about presidential politics so much as what would happen if President Donald J. Trump loses his 2020 reelection bid and Governor Phil Murphy slips the surly bounds of the Delaware.

It was an InsiderNJ conversation earlier this week.

The question was about South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and the source turned attention to Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop.

Would Fulop run for governor again if Murphy were to go to a Democratic administration?

Maybe he’d want to, the source said, but acknowledged the unlikelihood of the mayor getting the backing he’d need to make a viable run.

Murphy himself has mostly hoarded that base of support Fulop would have required in order to check mate a statewide candidacy of Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-3), stocking up with Hudson, Bergen, Passaic, public sector labor, suburban progressives infuriated into politics by Trump, and a big public display of affection for Newark Mayor Ras Baraka.

Those were all once critical pieces of Fulop’s building blocks.

The sitting governor has pretty good control of that sector of party power, but Murphy leaves New Jersey to go serve as Treasury Secretary or Secretary of State, and the leaders of those political pieces seek an alternative, they will probably go in a different direction from Fulop, the source insisted.

Where? InsiderNJ asked.

“Mikie Sherrill,” the source said, referring to the Morris County Democratic congresswoman from Montclair.

Why?

“She’s from Essex, and with South Jersey presumably leaning hard on Essex with support for Sweeney, Essex could legitimately make the argument for going in another direction in favor of one of its own,” the source insisted.

In 2017, the Democratic Primary field consisted of Fulop, Murphy and Sweeney, with Fulop and Sweeney clearly cutting up the state between them, while Murphy prioritized a strategy of being the second choice of as many people as possible. When Fulop left the race, Essex’s decision to back Murphy over Sweeney and break the logjam of three northern counties and public sector workers against South Jersey and the Building Trades effectively ended the South Jerseyan’s gubernatorial bid.

Essex will again decide.

It’s easier for the aftermath if the choice hails from home.

If it’s not Sherrill whom the north will produce to check Sweeney, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is another option, the source acknowledged.

Again, he’s Essex.

U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-5) is less likely because he’s Bergen, not Essex, and doesn’t readily give Essex County Democratic Committee Chairman Leroy Jones cover against Sweeney and his allies craving statewide reins.

Of course, U.S. Senator Cory Booker could complicate Murphy’s escape route to the next presidential administration.

Murphy backs Booker for prez.

Booker hasn’t broken out yet in any of the polls. He seems stuck, in fact, in single digits.

That has to be alarming for Murphy, who doesn’t want to end up like former Governor Jon Corzine.

Corzine backed Hillary Clinton for president in 2008, then found himself out in the cold when Barack Obama assembled his cabinet, forced into running for reelection in 2009 against Chris Christie while attempting to unify a compromised, scared, and very divided Democratic Party organization.

If Booker does win, he would undoubtedly pick Murphy (Booker’s former state director, George Helmy, now serves as the governor’s chief of staff, so there’s a relationship there) for some position in his administration, freeing not only the senate seat but the executive, a double gift to the political establishment here intent on seizing more power and expanding its influence.

 

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