FDU Poll: Trump Tanks in New Jersey

The night before his impeachment acquital in the senate, Trump delivered a speech that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would rip in half immediately after his delivery.

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, New Jersey, February 21. 2020 – Despite low unemployment in the Garden State (3.2%), and perceptions by many that the economy is strong, Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in New Jersey, with a sizable number unable or unwilling to credit him with any significant accomplishments as president.

The most recent statewide survey of New Jersey adults from the Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll finds Trump’s approval at a slim 32 percent, with 60 percent who say they disapprove of how he is handling his job as president. The last time the same question was asked was in October of 2019. The impeachment has done little to change his approval in the Garden State, for better or worse, as he was underwater around the same degree that he is today (34/57).

“Trump is faring considerably worse than his predecessor, Barack Obama, did at this point in his presidency, and Obama was wrestling with unemployment that was almost triple what it is today in New Jersey. Back then, the unemployment rate was 9 percent, but half of Garden Staters approved of the job he was doing as president. Today, Trump is wrestling with low approval amidst strong economic numbers,” said Krista Jenkins, Director of the FDU Poll and a Professor of Politics and Government.

The president remains strongly supported by Republicans (79%), with 16 percent who disapprove, and independents decidedly unfavorable toward Trump (48%). With the exception of Republicans and independents, a majority of all demographic groups considered express displeasure with his leadership.

The president’s unpopularity is accompanied by a divided citizenry over whether he has achieved any accomplishments, both major and minor. Around four-in-ten (38%) say he has little to show for his presidency, with Democrats (60%), women (42%), non-whites (45%), and young adults (45%), among the most likely to rate the president poorly. Forty-six percent believe the president has accomplishments to show for his time in office, with a quarter (25%) who believe they are major, and another 21 percent who believe they are minor. Unsurprisingly, two-thirds (63%) of Republicans credit the president with major achievements, while a quarter of Democrats (24%) believe the president has had minor accomplishments.

When asked to provide an example of a major achievement, the economy tops the list, with jobs, tax cuts, and reform, and unemployment also offered by many respondents.

“What’s interesting, but not unexpected given years of political science research, is the importance of economic trends when evaluating leaders. As Garden Staters demonstrate so clearly, Trump’s strengths are the perception that the country’s economy is booming, tax reforms are working, and jobs are plentiful, all because of his leadership,” said Jenkins.

The same survey finds that among many, there is a perception that his political opponents, despite moving to impeach and remove him from office, have not done enough to check the behavior that they find objectionable. Half say the Democrats should have done more, with around a third (36%) who believe Democratic leaders have overreacted. Besides Democrats, non-whites are the most likely to want more, rather than less, done to address their perceptions of Trump’s problematic behavior (65%). Women (29%) are also significantly less likely than men (44%) to believe the Democratic party has overreacted to the Trump presidency.

“Far from admonishing the Democrats for pursuing a ‘hoax,” most in the Garden State, including a fifth of Republicans, think they should be pursuing the president with even more vigor, despite surviving a failed impeachment trial,” said Jenkins.

 

Methodology

The survey was conducted by live callers on both landlines and cellular phones between February 12 through February 16, 2020, with a scientifically selected random sample of 805 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. Persons without a telephone could not be included in the random selection process. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult currently available. The interview was conducted in English and included 321 adults reached on a landline phone and 484 adults reached on a cell phone, all acquired through random digit dialing.

The data were weighted to be representative of the non-institutionalized adult population of New Jersey. The weighting balanced sample demographics to target population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and phone use. The sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, and region parameters were derived from the 2017 American Community Survey PUMS data. The phone use parameter was derived from estimates provided by the National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program.

Weighting was done in two stages. The first stage of weighting corrected for different probabilities of selection associated with the number of adults in each household and each respondent’s telephone usage patterns. This adjustment also accounts for the overlapping landline and cell sample frames and the relative sizes of each frame and each sample. This first stage weight was applied to the entire sample which included all adults.

The second stage of the weighting balanced sample demographics to match target population benchmarks. This weighting was accomplished using SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population.

Effects of Sample Design on Statistical Analysis

Post-data collection statistical adjustments require analysis procedures that reflect departures from simple random sampling. We calculate the effects of these design features so that an appropriate adjustment can be incorporated into tests of statistical significance when using these data. The so-called “design effect” or deff represents the loss in statistical efficiency that results from a disproportionate sample design and systematic non-response. The total sample design effect for this study is 1.36.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 801 New Jersey adults is +/-4 percentage points (including the design effect) at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus, if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46 and 54 percent (50 +/- 4) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample.

Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question-wording, or context effects.

This telephone survey was fielded by Braun Research, Inc. with a sample from Dynata.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

805 New Jersey Adults

Male    48%  N = 382 (+/-5%)

Female    52%  N = 423 (+/-5%)

18-34    27%  N = 214 (+/-7%)

35-54    35%  N = 285 (+/-6%)

55+    26%  N = 305 (+/-6%)

Democrat (with leaners)  51%  N = 393 (+/-5%)

Independent   18%  N = 139 (+/-8%)

Republican (with leaners) 31%  N = 241 (+/-6%)

White    59%  N = 472 (+/-4%)

Black    12%  N = 99 (+/-10%)

Hispanic   19%  N = 151(+/-8%)

Other    10%  N = 79 (+/-11%)

HS or less   30%  N = 239 (+/-6%)

Some college   31%  N = 252 (+/-6%)

College    38%  N = 309 (+/-6%)

 

Question wording and order:

LV1 Are you currently registered to vote at this address?

1 Yes    [Ask PID1]

2 No    [Ask LV2]

8 DK (vol)    [Ask LV2]

9 Refused (vol)   [Ask LV2]

 

LV2 Do you plan on registering in time to vote in the state’s primary elections in June?

1 Yes    [Ask PID1]

2 No    [Ask PID1]

8 DK (vol)    [Ask PID1]

9 Refused (vol)   [Ask PID1]

 

PID1 In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

1 Democrat

2 Republican

3 Independent  ASK PID2

4 Something Else/Other

8 Don’t know (VOL)

9 Refused (VOL)

 

PID2          Which way do you lean?

1 Democrat

2 Republican

3 Independent

4 Something Else/Other

8 Don’t know (VOL)

9 Refused (VOL)

 

NOTE TO PROGRAMMER: ASK REMAINDER OF LV SERIES IF PID1  = 1 OR (PID1 = 3 & PID2 = 1); OTHERWISE ASK US1

 

LV3 Please rate your chances of voting in June on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning you’ll definitely vote, and 1 meaning you definitely will not vote.

1-10

88 DK (vol)

99 Refused (vol)

 

LV4 Please tell me how enthusiastic you are to vote in June on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning you’re extremely enthused and 1 meaning you’re not at all enthused to vote.

1-10

88 DK (vol)

99 Refused (vol)

 

LV5 I know it’s early, but if the Democratic primary were held today, who would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER]?

1 Joseph Biden

2 Michael Bloomberg

3 Pete Buttigieg [BOOT-A-JEJ]

4 Tulsi Gabbard [GAB-ARD]

5 Amy Klobuchar [KLO-BA-SHAR]

6 Bernie Sanders

7 Tom Steyer  [STI-ER]

8 Elizabeth Warren

 

US1. Do you approve or disapprove [ROTATE] of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

1 Approve

2 Disapprove

8 DK (vol)

9  Refused (vol)

 

1/17
3/17
10/17
1/18
5/18
9/18
10/19
2/20
Approve
37
28
31
31
33
33
34
32
Disapprove
50
61
62
60
57
58
57
60

 

 

US2 Since President Trump took office in 2017, would you say he’s had major accomplishments, minor accomplishments, or no real accomplishments as president?

1 Major  ASK US2a

2 Minor

3 No real accomplishments

4 Both major and minor (vol)

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused  (vol)

 

US2A What has been his biggest accomplishment? [open ended]

 

US3 Which of the following statements best describes how you feel, even if neither statement is perfect: Democrats have overreacted to President Trump’s behavior OR Democrats have not done enough to correct problems they see with President Trump’s behavior [RANDOMIZE ORDER]

1 Overreacted

2 Not done enough

8 DK (vol)

9 Refused  (vol)

 

Tables [percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding]

US1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
All
Gender
Party w/ Lean
Age
Race/Eth
Income
Education
Region
Men
Women
Dem
Ind
Repub
18-34
35-54
55+
White Non/Hisp
Non-white
<75K
75K-<150K
150K+
HS or less
Some coll
Coll grad+
North
Central
South
Approve
32%
37%
28%
7%
28%
79%
19%
29%
45%
44%
16%
29%
40%
29%
32%
36%
29%
27%
36%
36%
Disapprove
60%
54%
65%
90%
48%
16%
67%
64%
50%
50%
73%
64%
53%
62%
58%
55%
65%
66%
54%
57%
Don’t know (vol)
3%
3%
2%
2%
7%
2%
4%
4%
1%
2%
4%
2%
4%
3%
4%
3%
2%
2%
4%
3%
Refused (vol)
5%
5%
5%
1%
17%
3%
10%
4%
3%
5%
6%
6%
3%
7%
6%
6%
4%
5%
6%
4%
Unweighted N
805
382
423
379
142
253
225
286
294
576
224
396
240
112
156
291
351
318
262
225

 

US2. Since President Trump took office in 2017, would you say he’s had major accomplishments, minor accomplishments, or no real accomplishments as president?
All
Gender
Party w/ Lean
Age
Race/Eth
Income
Education
Region
Men
Women
Dem
Ind
Repub
18-34
35-54
55+
White Non/Hisp
Non-white
<75K
75K-<150K
150K+
HS or less
Some coll
Coll grad+
North
Central
South
Major
25%
31%
20%
6%
21%
63%
13%
21%
37%
33%
14%
23%
28%
24%
25%
28%
23%
23%
27%
27%
Minor
21%
24%
18%
24%
28%
13%
21%
24%
18%
21%
21%
18%
24%
26%
19%
16%
26%
23%
15%
24%
No real accomplish
38%
32%
42%
60%
24%
9%
45%
41%
29%
32%
45%
42%
34%
34%
34%
43%
36%
39%
37%
35%
Both (vol)
9%
9%
9%
5%
15%
13%
10%
9%
9%
10%
9%
8%
11%
12%
10%
7%
10%
6%
14%
9%
Don’t know (vol)
5%
2%
7%
5%
6%
2%
5%
2%
7%
3%
6%
7%
2%
2%
8%
3%
3%
6%
4%
3%
Refused (vol)
3%
2%
4%
1%
5%
0%
6%
2%
1%
1%
5%
2%
1%
2%
3%
3%
2%
3%
4%
1%
Unweight N
805
382
423
379
142
253
225
286
294
576
224
396
240
112
156
291
351
318
262
225

 

US3. Which of the following statements best describes how you feel, even if neither statement is perfect: Democrats have overreacted to President Trump’s behavior OR Democrats have not done enough to correct problems they see with President Trump’s behavior?
All
Gender
Party w/ Lean
Age
Race/Eth
Income
Education
Region
Men
Women
Dem
Ind
Repub
18-34
35-54
55+
White Non/Hisp
Non-white
<75K
75K-<150K
150K+
HS or less
Some coll
Coll grad+
North
Central
South
Overreacted
36%
44%
29%
12%
45%
74%
22%
35%
47%
49%
18%
29%
46%
43%
34%
38%
36%
31%
37%
42%
Not done enough
51%
49%
53%
75%
40%
20%
56%
53%
46%
41%
65%
57%
45%
47%
56%
46%
52%
56%
48%
48%
Don’t know (vol)
6%
4%
9%
8%
7%
2%
7%
7%
6%
6%
7%
7%
5%
3%
6%
8%
5%
7%
8%
5%
Refused (vol)
6%
4%
9%
5%
8%
3%
15%
5%
2%
4%
10%
7%
4%
8%
4%
7%
7%
6%
8%
5%
Unweighted N
805
382
423
379
142
253
225
286
294
576
224
396
240
112
156
291
351
318
262
225

 

 

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  • Gtfo… we are not dumb…TRUMP2020 TURN NJ RED

    • Brainiac3397

      You’re aware that Trump was responsible for NJ turning more blue? Democrats nationally gained 41 more seats in the House. 7 state governorships flipped Democrat.

      The only thing turning blue will be Trump supporters holding their breath waiting for something that’ll never happen…

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