The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race is in the campaign stage of what the late great journalistic chronicler of presidential races, Theodore H.  White, labeled as “First Stirrings.”

Prospective candidates for the 2025 New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nomination are currently involved in early positioning for the June, 2025 primary.  The maneuvers of the announced candidates, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, former State Senate President Steve Sweeney, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and New Jersey Education Association (NJEA) president and former Montclair mayor Sean Spiller have both advanced themselves and impacted significantly the political fortunes of the two unannounced candidates, Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill and Congressman Josh Gottheimer.

Sherrill and Gottheimer are perceived by the Trenton chattering class as the frontrunners for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. It is anticipated that they will announce their respective candidacies shortly after the November 2024 election.

Baraka, Sweeney, and Spiller have thus far taken effective steps to coalesce their prime constituencies existing beyond their home base.  By contrast, Fulop is running in an independent lane all his own, also seeking support from prospective legislative candidates willing to run under his banner.

Baraka has already made unprecedented progress statewide in attracting widespread support throughout the Jersey African- American community. Sweeney has secured early commitments of support from every South Jersey Democratic County organization.  As president of the NJEA, Spiller leads the New Jersey affiliate of the NEA, the largest public employee union in the nation and a most effective source of Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts on Primary Day.

Yet the two current front runners for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination remain Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer.  Sherrill is perceived as the candidate likely to win if the election was held today, based upon available public polling.  Her advantage in these surveys is attributable to support from women voters in all regions of the state.  In this era of Trump/Vance vulgar misogyny, the notion of a woman governor is highly cherished, and Sherrill’s communication skills, intellectual erudition, and leadership attributes, honed by her Naval officer experience give her an excellent gubernatorial profile.  She also is a superb political performer, as exhibited by her performances on national news television talk shows.

Gottheimer, however, is viewed by many Jersey pundits as more likely to prevail in the June, 2025 primary, due to his political assets, which are superior to those of the other likely candidates.  The most significant of these assets are 1) his renowned prodigious fundraising capacity; 2) support of the New Jersey Jewish community, constituting as high as ten percent of the Democratic primary turnout; and 3) backing of major County Democratic organizations.

It is the county organization role which gives Gottheimer his most significant advantage.  There is a misperception in the wake of the Democratic US Senate primary that County organizations, specifically the chairs, have lost power due to the judicial elimination of the “County lines.”  This ignores the fact that County organizations remain the most effective engine of GOTV efforts.   For virtually every modern New Jersey governor, a base consisting of the candidate’s home county plus other County organizations has been the key to victory.

Sherrill is unable to secure full control of her home County of Essex Democratic organization, which is in terms of registration the largest Democratic County organization in the state.  She does have the backing of the two most formidable figures in the Essex County Democratic firmament, County Executive Joe DiVincenzo and Essex County and New Jersey Democratic Chair LeRoy Jones. Her inability to secure full Essex control is not attributable to any failing on her part but instead is due to the presence of two Essex competitors, Baraka, who has the support of Newark, and Spiller, a resident of her home town of the People’s Republic of Montclair, who will likely have the backing of the Essex limousine liberal and latte crowd.

Sherrill may obtain the backing of other County Democratic organizations, but at this point is significantly behind Gottheimer in this regard.  The congressman has the strong support of the second largest Democratic organization in the state, his home County of Bergen and its chair, Paul Juliano.   This summer, Gottheimer achieved a political masterstroke by securing the backing of the fourth largest Democratic organization in the state, Hudson.

The focus of the 2025 Democratic gubernatorial campaign will now be on next spring’s Middlesex County Democratic Convention.  Middlesex has the third largest Democratic registration of any county.  If Josh Gottheimer wins that convention and thus the Middlesex County Democratic Organization endorsement, he will be heavily favored to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination on Primary Day 2025.  Thus, for Josh Gottheimer, the road to the New Jersey Governorship runs through Middlesex.

The key to victory at the Middlesex County Democratic Convention will be the endorsement of Middlesex County Democratic Chair Kevin McCabe.  He has given absolutely no clue thus far as to which candidate he is leaning.

Kevin McCabe is one of the five most effective County chairs I have observed in my half century of involvement in New Jersey politics.  His record of achievement in both the governmental and political realms is equaled by very few.

In 2025, McCabe is likely to have a role for which he never bargained: Gubernatorial Kingmaker.

Alan J. Steinberg of Highland Park served as regional administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He graduated from Northwestern University and the University of Wisconsin Law School.