BOONTON - Patrick Allocco ran for Congress back in 2018 and didn't fare all that well in what was a crowded Republican primary in CD-11.

Local Assemblyman Jay Webber won that race and ultimately lost to Democrat Mikie Sherrill.

There is a connection here - as there often is in New Jersey politics.

Allocco has morphed from congressional candidate to political forecaster via a tech company called Zoose. Here is how he describes it:

"Zoose® is a tech company leveraging advanced AI and human-to-human solutions to solve real-time challenges. While Zoose remains focused on enhancing global communication and support, we also apply our AI-driven insights to critical areas like election analysis - bringing data-backed clarity to complex political landscapes."

What does all that mean regarding the race for governor?

"I am the only forecaster who has Jack up ... right now," he said when we met Wednesday morning in this Morris County town.

Allocco's Zoose analysis has Jack Ciattarelli up by one point over Sherrill. That hardly portends a looming landslide, but it differs from other polls.

Most recently, a FDU poll has Sherrill up by 8 and a StimSight Research Poll has her up by 6.

Allocco began studying the race during the primary and dispatched weekly columns about his findings.  Yes, he had Sherrill and Ciattarelli winning, which, to be cynical, wasn't all that hard.

Looking ahead to the "real" race, Allocco postulated the following.

He said loyal Republicans and Democrats are locked in to Ciattarelli and Sherrill respectively.

Some observers have wondered what backers of Ras Baraka and Steve Fulop would do on the Democratic side. Ditto for Bill Spadea supporters on the GOP side.

Allocco suggests just about all of them will vote for their party's nominee.

So, why doesn't he have Sherrill in the lead? After all, there are almost 900,000 more registered Dems in the state than Republicans.

The apparent answer is that Sherrill's support is not as rock solid as her campaign would like.

Allocco spoke of the party's progressive, or liberal, base, which he said is actually split into two camps.

He described them as "practical progressives" and "emotional progressives."

As the label suggests, those who view the race practically will vote for Sherrill to stop a MAGA-candidate from becoming governor.

But the so-called emotional progressives?

Allocco said there's a chance this group "will not come out and vote for the established candidate."

Now, this is not something Team Mikie is unaware of. Just a few weeks ago, she spent a day campaigning in Trenton, a visit organized by a primary backer of Baraka.

That possible uncertainty among the Democrats' progressive wing makes the "undecided" quite important.

But in these polarized times, how many people are truly undecided?

Allocco called them "persuadables" and put their number at about 13 percent.

Of that group, Allocco said his analysis shows that young men are breaking for Ciattarelli by a big margin. That may be expected. Sherrill's base is probably suburban women.

The key with the "persuadables" is, obviously, getting them engaged. Or getting out the vote, something Democrats generally are better at than Republicans.

Combining his findings with the other recent polls, Allocco surmised that the race is now about 4 points in Sherrill's favor, which for Ciattarelli ain't all that bad.

Allocco, a 64-year-old resident of Morristown, has had a varied career. He was a concert promoter for more than a decade, a job that had ups and downs. He once was held under house arrest in Angola for about six weeks after a performer didn't show up. Really.

Even New Jersey politics is not as fraught as that.