The combination of 2020 redistricting reconceived mostly to protect Democratic Party incumbents gives a big advantage to the majority party in New Jersey. Even in these volatile times as Democrats struggle to find a message, their congressional delegation advantage looks mostly intact by way of the map, with only CD-7 a likely victory for the Republican challenger. That would render New Jersey 9-3 D-R by the end of the year. But we won’t consider those general election contests here, at least not in the main. For the moment, we concern ourselves with the June 7th Primary Calendar.
We take a look at the dynamics in each of New Jersey’s 12 Congressional Districts.
Certainly, Republicans have devoured much of the season’s energy, as challengers face one another for the right to go up against Democratic Party incumbents in battleground or quasi-battleground districts. In particular, the CD-5 GOP Primary looks like a significant conflict, with the Bergen County Republican Organization (BCRO)-backed candidate in a dogfight with a strong challenger off the line. CD-3 has also commanded a lot of attention, in a true establishment versus anti-establishment Republican Primary contest.
In many contests, the influence of former President Donald J. Trump remains strong, visible in a unique way in CD-4, where two challengers oppose U.S. Rep. Chris Smith (R-4) – one of just two incumbent Republican congressmen in New Jersey – because he favored the creation of a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6th, 2021 desecration of the United States Capitol.
Keep an eye, too, on CD-10, where a progressive challenger looks to test the strength of the party organization line in her financially well-connected challenge of a veteran Democratic Party incumbent. U.S. Rep. Donald Payne (D-10) is highly favored to win, but how much will his opponent, Imani Oakley, cut into the perception of an unbeatable Essex County Democratic Party Machine?
For analysis on those races, insider X’s and O’s, and much more, please read on, and don’t forget to vote on June 7th.
Download Insider NJ’s June Primary Election Special Edition or view it below:June Primary Elections