Incumbent Democratic Assemblymembers Lisa Swain and Chris Tully are facing challenges from Republicans Robert Kaiser and Barry Wilkes. The Republican process saw the elimination of 2021 nominee Jerry Taylor while Paul Duggan withdrew from the race. Whether or not LD-38 should be seen as “competitive” is a question which requires an assessment of how insulated the party establishments have been from larger, national trends.

Therefore, a look back at LD-38 voter habits is in order. Wholly subsumed in Bergen County, LD38 is made up of Bergenfield, Fair Lawn, Glen Rock, Hasbrouck Heights, Little Ferry, Lodi, Maywood, Moonachie, New Milford, Oradell, Paramus, River Edge, Rochelle Park, Saddle Brook, South Hackensack, and the tiny borough of Teterboro. Most of these towns are suburban, middle- and- working-class, majority-white with large Hispanic and Asian populations.

With the state elections out-of-synch with presidential elections, New Jersey’s electoral outcomes can be seen as a temperature check on the country itself, not just the state of New Jersey, a consequence (and perhaps an unfair and unfortunate one) of the apparent nationalization of all politics.

For about twenty years, dominating the 1980s and 1990s, the Republican party held a strong grasp on the district. This changed in the election of 2003 when State Senator Joseph Coniglio would be joined by fellow Democrats Bob Gordon and Joan Voss in the General Assembly. Since then, the Democrats have had their own twenty-two year reign, weathering some turbulent years, especially in the Trump era where national issues have had a profound and inescapable impact on state and local political operations.

With Swain and Tully facing off against Robert Kaiser and returning-candidate Wilkes, the incumbents enjoy a historical advantage of voters. LD-38 has a majority of independent/unaffiliated voters at about 40%, registered Democrats about 36%, and registered Republicans about 23%. Given the thin margin by which Kamala Harris held onto New Jersey in 2024, and the undeniable “Red Wave” which saw the map shift dramatically, Democrats should not take anything for granted. The 38th Legislative District has seen a slight red shift, with Republican gains in the reddened Paramus giving Democratic leaders some cause for concern.

In the 2017 election which brought Governor Phil Murphy into power, the General Assembly election saw the Joseph Lagana-Tim Eustace ticket carry 60% of the vote from Bill Leonard-Christopher Wolf’s GOP opposition which nabbed 40%. However, the next year, Senator Gordon resigned to take a position on the Board of Public Utilities, triggering a special election. Voter turn-out was actually higher for the special election, 158,000 compared to the 105,000 who turned out the previous year. The 2018 elections were also the “Blue Wave” midterms which came as a response to the first Trump administration. The 2018 special election saw the largest turnout of any General Assembly election in recent times. Only 2021—which narrowly delivered Governor Murphy’s re-election win—saw a turnout that came close, and this was not a Congressional midterm year.

This week, Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli was in LD-38, in Fair Lawn specifically, when he announced that he was ready to debate his competitor, Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill. As political scientists analyze all aspects of campaign strategy and decision-making, it is possible that the announcement in Fair Lawn was engineered to try to further shake an already-knocked blue fortress. Formerly reliable Democratic strongholds, such as Lodi and Saddle Brook, have moved toward the GOP. Democrats’ advantage in northern New Jersey, where the bulk of the state’s population (and financial resources) are found, could be threatened by the charismatic former Assemblyman.

In May, Bergen County Republican Chairman Jack DeLorenzo said, “The voters of Bergen County have a chance to flip the governor’s seat and the legislature in November. With Jack Ciattarelli leading the ticket and a great group of legislative candidates… we can do just that.”

DeLorenzo had also acknowledged the Democrats’ long-held control, saying that the Republican county commissioner candidates would “restore checks and balances” on what he called “a lock on runaway debt and spending” steered by Democrats.

A source familiar with the political landscape and operations told Insider NJ that he expected the Democrats would remain in power, but acknowledged there has been an undeniable change in some communities due to a failure of effective Democratic messaging on affordability concerns. "Kitchen table issues," the source said, are foremost in the minds of skeptical-Democrats and independents, which made the district less reliably blue than in the past. The weight of numbers is still in Democrats' favor, and the economic impacts of the Trump administration have yet to be fully felt, the source said, noting that grocery prices are still high, and imports from tariffs are adding further financial burden to New Jerseyans. Lagana, Swain, and Tully may well win another term and, the source said, some of that confidence could also be attributed to the division and infighting within the Bergen County Republican Party itself, hindering their ability to harness their resources in the most effective manner.

As it does appear that LD-38 has been a stable hold for Democrats, even riding out the Red Waves, the national conversation dominates headlines. On the state-level, Republicans seek to tie Sherrill to being an extension of Phil Murphy, while Democrats frame their attacks on Ciattarelli on his closeness to Donald Trump, who endorsed him over the likes of the more right-wing Bill Spadea. If the New Jersey gubernatorial election remains, to some extent, a “temperature check” on the country as a whole, then Democrats will have their work cut out for them. To what extent two twenty-year periods of LD-38 political dominion (the 80s and 90s for the Republicans, the 00s-present for the Democrats) are indicative of actual shifts, or merely apophenia, will be seen in the coming election. Democrats in LD-38 who are wise enough to not take their base for granted will either capitalize on anti-Trump sentiment, or the GOP—led by Ciattarelli—will upend a generation-long period of Democratic rule in the district.