Warren and Sanders catch up to Biden on ‘electability’

            West Long Branch, NJ – President Donald Trump’s reelection prospects have not taken a hit since the House formally moved ahead with impeachment proceedings. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders lead national Democratic voter preference to take on Trump, with the latter two rising in perceived electability since the summer.  The poll also finds that the vast majority of Democrats are satisfied with the field of candidates currently running for the 2020 nomination.

Just over 4-in-10 (42%) registered voters feel that Trump should be reelected in 2020, while a majority (55%) say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office.  These results are statistically similar to Monmouth’s September poll taken just after news broke about the Ukraine call (39% reelect and 57% someone new) and from August when the House impeachment inquiry was just getting started (39% reelect and 57% someone new).  While the current results are statistically similar to prior polls, this marks the first time support for Trump’s reelection has nominally risen above 40% since Monmouth started asking this question one year ago. Prior to the current poll, support for Trump’s reelection stayed in a narrow range of 37% to 39% while the preference for someone new varied from 57% to 60%.

“It’s important not to read too much into differences within the margin of error. But the fact that there is no significant change in the current results suggests that the opening salvo of the House impeachment inquiry has had little impact on the overall 2020 dynamic. Voter opinion remains baked in,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump currently has a 44% favorable and 54% unfavorable personal rating among registered voters. This is largely unchanged from his 43%-56% rating in late September.  The leading Democratic contenders who want to take on the president in 2020 all had a net advantage over Trump in voter favorability last month, but this has now diminished. Biden has a rating of 43% favorable and 50% unfavorable, which is more negative than his 46%-45% rating in late September. Voters have also grown more negative about Sanders, giving him a 41% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating, down from 42%-49%.  Warren’s current rating of 42% favorable and 44% unfavorable is similar to her 42%-40% rating in late September.  California Sen. Kamala Harris gets a 27% favorable and 46% unfavorable rating (was 33%-42% in September) and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets a 27% favorable and 34% unfavorable rating (was 30%-31% in September).

Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are divided over who they want to stand against Trump in 2020.  The top contenders remain Biden (23%), Warren (23%), and Sanders (20%).  In late September, these three stood at 25%, 28%, and 15%, respectively. Buttigieg garners 9% (up from 5%) and Harris gets 5% (same as 5% in late September).  New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and entrepreneur Andrew Yang each get 3% and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar gets 2%.  The remaining eight candidates included in the poll earn 1% or less.

“It is interesting that these results look a lot like what was considered an outlier poll back in August.  But the current numbers are not an outlier with other recent national polls being all over the place.  This is just another reminder that there is no such thing as a national primary. Most of the voters we talk to right now are not really anchoring their choices to an actual election decision just yet,” said Murray.

While preferences may not be locked in, few Democratic voters (16%) say they would like to see another candidate in the running for their party’s nomination. The vast majority (74%) say they are satisfied with the current field.  However, non-liberals (22%) are more likely than liberals (11%) to express a desire for having other candidates from which to choose.

            The poll tested the perceived “electability” of eight candidates among Democratic voters. While Biden remains the candidate seen as having the best chance of beating Trump next year, both Warren and Sanders have narrowed the gap.  When asked to rate Biden on a scale from 0 (would definitely lose to Trump) to 10 (would definitely defeat Trump), 51% of Democratic voters give him an 8, 9 or 10 and just 11% score him less than 5. His average score is 7.3.  In June, 59% gave Biden a high score and 9% gave him a low score, for an average of 7.7.

            Warren averages 7.1, which is up from a 6.4 score in June. This includes 49% who give her an electability rating of 8 to 10 (up from 32%) and 11% below 5 (down from 16%). Sanders averages 7.0, which is up from a 6.5 score in June. This includes 48% who give him an electability rating of 8 to 10 (up from 39%) and 10% below 5 (down from 17%).

            Electability ratings for other candidates have dropped slightly. This includes Harris with an average score of 5.5, down from 6.0 in June. Just 20% give her a score of 8 to 10 (down from 24%) and 29% rate her below 5 (up from 20%).  Buttigieg earns a 5.3 electability rating (down from 5.6), Booker gets a 5.2 rating (from 5.3), and Klobuchar has a 4.5 rating (from 4.7). Yang also has a 4.5 rating, although he was not included in the June poll.

Biden’s electability rating has declined mainly among self-described liberals (from 7.7 in June to 6.8 now) while it has remained stable among non-liberals (from 7.8 to 7.7).  Warren’s perceived electability has grown more among non-liberals (from 6.1 to 7.0) than among liberals (from 6.7 to 7.0). Similarly, Sanders’ electability score has grown more among non-liberals (from 6.1 to 6.8) than among liberals (from 6.9 to 7.2) since June. Harris has seen her rating decline more among liberals (from 6.4 to 5.3) than among non-liberals (from 5.7 to 5.4). Buttigieg’s electability score has declined among liberals (from 5.8 to 5.3) but remained stable among non-liberals (5.2 in both June and November).

            On average, most voters feel that the candidate they are currently supporting has a good chance of defeating Trump. Among the eight candidates tested for perceived electability in the poll, the average score from their own supporters is 8.4, including 9.0 for Biden, 8.6 for Warren, and 8.7 for Sanders.  This perception is not much different than Monmouth’s June poll, when voters gave their preferred candidate an average electability rating of 8.3, including 8.9 for Biden among his supporters, 8.1 for Warren among her supporters, and 8.0 for Sanders among his supporters.

Warren continues to see her ratings improve among Democrats and Democratic-leaners with every new poll.  She currently earns a 79% favorable and 9% unfavorable rating, which is up from 75%-9% in September, 65%-13% in August and 60%-14% in May.  Ratings for Biden have also ticked up after having dropped in the last two Monmouth polls. He currently has a 76% favorable and 19% unfavorable rating, which is up from 72%-20% in September and 66%-25% in August, but similar to 74%-17% in May.

The ratings for Sanders have ticked down slightly after making a big jump in the last poll. He currently has a 72% favorable and 25% unfavorable rating, compared with 75%-19% in September, 64%-24% in August, and 65%-21% in May.

            The other two candidates included in this question have also seen their ratings among Democratic voters decline since September. Harris currently has a 53% favorable and 20% unfavorable rating, which is down from 60%-18% in September, 56%-17% in August, and 58%-9% in May. Buttigieg has seen his rating fall back since getting a bump last month. He currently gets a 49% favorable and 16% unfavorable rating, compared with 53%-12% in September, 43%-14% in August, and 35%-11% in May.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 30 to November 3, 2019 with 908 adults in the United States. The results in this release are based on 835 registered voters and have a +/- 3.4 percentage point sampling margin of error.  This release also includes results based on 345 voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party which have a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-7 previously released.]

[Note: Q8 was rotated with Q7-Trump impeachment question, which was released yesterday.]

8.     Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should be reelected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?

[Q9-10 previously released.]

[Q11 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS/LEANING DEMOCRATIC VOTERS.]

11.   I know the 2020 election is far away, but who would you support for the Democratic nomination for president if the candidates were the following? [INCLUDES LEANERS] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

     * O’Rourke was included in 10/30-31 interviewing only.

[Q12 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS/LEANING DEMOCRATIC VOTERS.]

12.   Are you satisfied with the field of candidates running for the Democratic nomination right now or would you like to see someone else running?

[ASKED OF EVERYONE]

13.   I’m going to read you the names of some people who are running for president in 2020.  Please tell me if your general impression of each is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

[Q14 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS/LEANING DEMOCRATIC VOTERS]

14.   I’m going to read you the names of some Democrats who are running for president in 2020.  Regardless of whether you would support them, I want to know how strong you think they would be against President Trump if they were the Democratic nominee.  For each one, please rate them on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means they definitely would lose to Trump and 10 means they definitely would beat Trump. 5 means they have a 50/50 chance.  You may use any number between zero and 10. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

[Q15-26 previously released.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 30 to November 3, 2019 with a national random sample of 908 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 364 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 544 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 835 registered voters. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on the registered voter sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.