Most Americans see an unwillingness to accept election outcomes as a major problem in the country today. Fewer say the same about election fraud, although there are glaring partisan differences in both opinions, according to the Monmouth University Poll. Distrust of the courts and justice system is also a problem for many. On a related topic, most Americans would be upset if Donald Trump acted on his anti-institutional statements about suspending laws and constitutional provisions. However, a significant number see this rhetoric as more of an exaggeration than a serious threat. There are stark partisan variations in underlying public attitudes toward authoritarianism in general. Of immediate interest this election year, the poll finds evidence that the key group of swing voters known as double haters want changes in the country but would not be happy if that shake-up resulted in authoritarian style rule.

Just over 4 in 10 (43%) Americans say that too many people unwilling to accept the decisions by our courts of law is a major problem for the country. There are few partisan differences on this particular view, but there are when it comes to concern about the justice system being used to go after political enemies. Half (50%) of Americans see political manipulation of the justice system as a major problem, which ranges widely from 77% of Republicans to 50% of independents and just 22% of Democrats who see this as a major problem.

Similar numbers of Americans agree that it is hard to trust the decisions of courts that are controlled by judges who were appointed by either Republicans (48%) or Democrats (46%). As may be expected, those who identify with the Republican Party are more likely to distrust supposedly Democratic courts (67%) than they are Republican courts (24%). Democratic identifiers do the opposite, with more distrusting supposedly Republican courts (69%) than Democratic ones (21%).

“Court decisions seem to be viewed through a partisan lens more and more. While it might not be surprising that Americans distrust courts dominated by appointees of the opposite party, it is worth noting that just over 1 in 5 partisans tend to distrust courts appointed by their own party as well. This is a sign of larger anti-institutional sentiment,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A majority (58%) of Americans say that too many people being unwilling to accept the outcomes of elections is a major problem in the country. Fewer (41%) say that election outcomes being determined by fraud is a major problem. Democrats (74%) are most likely to see election denial as a major problem while Republicans (64%) are most likely to see election fraud as a major problem. Specifically, 32% of Americans – including 63% of Republicans – continue to believe that Joe Biden won the presidency only because of voter fraud. This opinion has been virtually immutable since the 2020 election.

Most Americans feel the president should not have the power to suspend provisions of the U.S. Constitution if he determines that significant election fraud has occurred. The overall results are identical whether the president in question is Trump or Biden. Just 17% say either man should have that power while 79% say either should not. However, Republicans are slightly more willing to give Trump the power to suspend laws (30%) than Democrats are for Biden (21%).

Trump has suggested that, if elected again, he could suspend some laws and constitutional provisions to go after political enemies. The public is divided on whether this is something he will seriously do (52%) or if it is more of an exaggeration (45%). Most Democrats take these statements seriously (78%) while Republicans tend to see them as an exaggeration (65%). If Trump did get elected and suspend some laws and constitutional provisions, 65% of the public would be bothered a lot by this. However, this ranges from 86% of Democrats to 68% of independents and just 41% of Republicans who would be bothered a lot.

In general, a majority (56%) of Americans say it is more important to have a stable system of government even if that means not much changes in the country. This compares to 38% who say it is more important to have significant change even if that means our system of government becomes less stable. Democrats prefer stability (74%) over change (20%), while Republicans and independents are split (49% stability and 45% change for each). Independents under the age of 35 years old are much more likely than others to value change (65%) over stability (32%).

The Monmouth University Poll also explored the prevalence of authoritarianism tendencies in the American populace. The authoritarian index used here is adapted from the Right-Wing Authoritarian (RWA) scale used in research conducted by Monmouth in 2019 through a collaboration with the measurement’s developer, Dr. Robert Altemeyer. This study was replicated on a multinational level by Morning Consult in 2021. The scale uses a set of intentionally pointed statements to gauge agreement with authoritarian approaches to organizing society, such as our country needing a “strong, determined leader who will crush evil and take us back to our true path,” a sentiment with which 44% of the public strongly agrees. Responses to the six scale items in the poll (see questions 9 and 22) were combined and grouped into four categories of authoritarian inclination: high (representing 18% of the adult population), above average (28%), moderate (26%), and low (29%).

There are clear partisan variations in authoritarianism, including differences by strength of partisanship. Nearly 8 in 10 strong Republicans score as either high (39%) or above average (40%) on this scale. In contrast, a smaller majority of Republicans who are not-strong partisans or only lean toward the party score either high (18%) or above average (38%). At the other end of the political spectrum, one-third of strong Democrats score high (16%) or above average (18%) on the authoritarian scale. This actually declines to just over 1 in 5 of not-strong or leaning Democrats (5% high and 17% above average). True independents with no partisan leaning are similar to strong Democrats in their authoritarian tendencies (13% high and 22% above average). Among all partisan groups, independents who lean Democratic are the most likely to score in the lowest category on this scale (62%).

There are some other demographic differences on the authoritarian scale, such as by age and education. However, they are overshadowed by partisanship among Republicans. For example, a majority (53%) of all Americans without a bachelor’s degree score above average or high on the scale compared with just 31% of college graduates. Also, older adults age 55 and over (59%) are most likely to score high in authoritarianism when compared with those age 35 to 54 (43%) and 18 to 34 years old (31%). However, among strong Republicans, there are no significant age variations for scoring in the top categories of the authoritarian scale, and there are only some education-based differences (i.e., 83% of those without a college degree compared with 69% of college graduates among strong Republicans). Age has more of a mitigating factor among not-strong Republicans, including those who lean toward the GOP, with 65% of those age 55 and older and 57% of those age 35 to 54 scoring in the upper part of the scale, compared with just 42% who are younger than 35 years old.

Age and education have more of a mitigating effect among Democrats. Among strong Democrats, those scoring high or above average on the authoritarian scale include 48% of those age 55 and older, 23% of those age 35 to 54, and 9% of those age 18 to 34, as well as 48% of those without a bachelor’s degree versus 11% of those who graduated college. There are also some differences in authoritarianism by race, but they tend to correlate more with education given that a majority of strong Democrats who are white hold college degrees while only 1 in 4 strong Democrats who are Black, Hispanic, Asian, or of another race have college degrees. This pattern is similar among not-strong Democrats and Democratic leaners, with 45% of those age 55 and older, 18% of those age 35 to 54, and 10% of those age 18 to 34, as well as 32% of those without a college degree versus 7% of college graduates scoring high or above average on the authoritarian scale. There are smaller race-based differences for this partisan bloc compared with strong Democrats because the educational attainment levels of not-strong Democrats are more similar across racial groups.

An interesting thing about the most authoritarian members of the American population is that they distrust current government institutions and also feel that too many people question those institutions. Among Americans in the high authoritarian category, 75% say that the justice system being used to go after political enemies is a major problem, but 57% also say it is a major problem that too many people are unwilling to accept court decisions. Similarly, 60% of this group say people unwilling to accept election outcomes is a major problem, but 67% also say the same about fraud determining election outcomes. More specifically, 57% of high authoritarians believe that Biden’s 2020 victory was only due to voter fraud. This seeming cognitive dissonance is not the case with nonauthoritarians. Among those who score lowest on this scale, just 28% see the justice department being used to go after political enemies as a major problem and 41% say the same about the public’s unwillingness to accept court decisions. Even more stark, just 13% of this low authoritarian group say that election fraud is a major problem while 73% say that public unwillingness to accept election outcomes is a major problem.

“The authoritarian’s mentality is basically that everyone should accept institutional processes and policies as long as it is their preferred leader who gets to call all the shots for those processes and policies. For anyone needing a refresher in civics, this is not healthy for a democratic republic,” said Murray.

In other poll findings, just 20% of Americans say the country is headed in the right direction while two-thirds (68%) feel things have gotten off on the wrong track. This view has been more negative than positive for over a decade, but opinion has been particularly low during the past two years with the right direction percentage frequently dipping into the teens.

Just under half of the American public says our system of government is basically sound, needing only some (43%) or no (6%) improvement, while just over half say it is on shakier ground, being either not too sound (26%) or not sound at all (26%). Since January 2021, the number of Americans who see our system as sound has ranged between 36% (June 2022) and 50% (Sept. 2022). This opinion was slightly higher between 2017 and 2020 (50% to 55%) and much higher more than four decades ago (62% in 1980). Some people say the political turmoil and unrest we are currently experiencing is weakening the country so much that the American system of government cannot last much longer in its current form. A majority (57%) feel this view is accurate while 41% say it is exaggerated. Most Republicans (65%) and independents (63%) say it is accurate, while a majority of Democrats (58%) say it is exaggerated. Republicans (39%) and independents (43%) are also less likely than Democrats (69%) to say the American system is basically sound.

“I think there’s a tendency to default to a core belief in the American system even as we point out a number of areas where its foundation may be crumbling. That may be why opinion on this question hasn’t moved as much as views on more specific aspects of our political institutions. But faith in the soundness of our system is definitely not where it was more than a generation ago,” said Murray.

A majority of the public has some trust and confidence in the American people as a whole when it comes to making judgments under our democratic system about issues facing the country – just not necessarily a lot of confidence. Specifically, 11% have a great deal of trust and confidence in their fellow Americans and 41% have a fair amount. Another 37% have not very much trust and confidence and 10% have none at all. Democrats (68%) are more likely than either Republicans (49%) or independents (45%) to have confidence in the judgment of the American people. In 2019, during the Trump administration, there were no significant partisan differences in this view – 57% for Democrats, 59% for Republicans, and 56% for independents – although the Democratic number had dropped by more than 10 points from 2016. Republican confidence in the American people fell to 49% after Biden took office in 2021 while it rose significantly for Democrats (71%) and increased somewhat for independents (66%). However, confidence in the American people among independents has been on a steady decline since then.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from June 6 to 10, 2024 with 1,106 adults in the United States.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-6 previously released.]

7. Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

        * Registered voters

8. Which is more important to you: to have a stable system of government even if that means not much changes in the country, or to have significant change in the country even if that means our system of government becomes less stable? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

9. Please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statements.

[Q10-18 previously released.]

19. Now, I’m going to read four statements about our American system of government. Listen carefully and then tell me which one is closest to how you feel: our system of government is basically sound and essentially needs no changes, our system is basically sound, but needs some improvement, our system is not too sound and needs many improvements, or our system is not sound at all and needs significant changes?

* Source: Opinion Research Corporation

20. Some people say the political turmoil and unrest we are currently experiencing is weakening the country so much that the American system of government cannot last much longer in its current form. Do you feel this view is very accurate, somewhat accurate, somewhat exaggerated, or very exaggerated?

21. More generally, how much trust and confidence do you have in the American people as a whole when it comes to making judgments under our democratic system about the issues facing our country – a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, or none at all?

        * Registered voters

22. Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statements.

23. Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statements. [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

24. How big of a problem are the following situations in America right now?  [READ ITEM] – is this a major problem, a minor problem, or not a problem? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 25 & 26 WERE ROTATED]

25. Do you think Donald Trump, if he is president, should have or should not have the power to temporarily suspend provisions of the Constitution if he determines that significant election fraud has occurred?

26. Do you think Joe Biden, as president, should have or should not have the power to temporarily suspend provisions of the Constitution if he determines that significant election fraud has occurred?

27. Do you believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election fair and square or do you believe that he only won it due to voter fraud?

* Includes 2% who said Biden would not be declared the winner.

28. Donald Trump has made statements suggesting that he could suspend some laws and constitutional provisions to go after political enemies if he is elected president again. Do you see these statements as something he will seriously do if elected or more of an exaggeration?

29. If Donald Trump did suspend some laws and constitutional provisions if he is elected president, would that bother you a lot, bother you a little, or not bother you at all?

[Q30-38 previously released.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from June 6 to 10, 2024 with a probability-based national random sample of 1,106 adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 262 live landline telephone interviews, 348 live cell phone interviews, and 496 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n= 756), Aristotle (list, n= 182) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n= 168). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2022 one-year survey). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.69). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 28% Republican, 44% Independent, 28% Democrat

Sex: 49% male, 50% female, 1% other

Age: 29% 18-34, 33% 35-54, 38% 55+

Race: 61% White, 12% Black, 17% Hispanic, 10% Asian/other

Education: 37% high school or less, 30% some college, 18% 4 year degree, 15% graduate degree

Crosstabs may be found in the PDF file on the report webpage:  https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_071124/