The budget will uniquely impact the 2025 contest between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill, as Ciattarelli will try to maintain focus on the state budget, almost in a vacuum, while Sherrill will contextualize New Jersey's budget with the as-yet unratified federal budget, President Donald Trump's so-called "big, beautiful bill."

The most pragmatic, historically astute NJ Republicans did not want Trump winning the presidential contest last year, because they knew how his priorities at the federal level would force the Republican nominee to make uncomfortable adjustments. But Ciattarelli has the comfort zone of a dark and dingy Democratic budget process and is already rubbing his hands together for a crack at the plate.

In the arguably unenviable position of seeking a third term of Democratic Party rule of New Jersey's executive leadership, Sherrill has the advantage of an autocratic and morally compromised Republican President in office whose attacks on women - at a bare minimum - and lack of personal character, enable the retired U.S. Navy helicopter pilot to provide strong campaign contrast.

If she plays the blame game, however, and can't properly make the case for how another Democrat can serve without merely taking the reins of a runaway spending stagecoach, the articulate and very capable Ciattarelli - a CPA/MBA, with sharp campaigning and people skills - will pounce.

Sherrill will have to not only contrast herself with the golf-playing, scowling and childishly self-centered President (the easy part, really), but with her own party, which expanded this year's budget with $700 million in Christmas Tree monies (the hard part).

Ciattarelli will have his own challenges, of course, trying to run with Trump - who lives here, after all - hovering over his shoulder in a state with 830,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

The candidates have already been sharpening their weapons in preparation for their intensifying head-on collision.

Ciattarelli routinely makes the case that under the stewardship of Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat, the state budget has ballooned from $35 billion when Republican Governor Chris Christie left office, to $59 billion, dashed off Murphy's desk last night.

The Republican nominee for governor stockpiled more ammo during the final days of the budget season.

Yesterday he tweeted:

"In the middle of the night Governor Murphy & Trenton Democrats crafted a budget that once again adds billions in state spending [up 70% in 8 years!] & raises taxes on both working families and small businesses while doing nothing to address the real problems we face - the highest property taxes in the nation, worst state in the country to do business, a failed housing policy that’s over paving our suburbs while ignoring our cities, and schools that are failing our students. Want four more years of the same?Vote for @MikieSherrill. Want real change? Join our fight. I’ll reduce the size & cost of our state budget, cut your taxes, and won’t sign a budget until you see it. It’s time."

Sherrill, for her part, will continue to make the argument that Ciattarelli lacks credibility as a budget hawk.

"Jack has raised taxes at every level of government," said the Democrat earlier this month in her acceptance speech of the Democratic nomination for Governor. "He raised taxes as a councilmember. He raised taxes as a commissioner. And, you guessed it, your taxes went up when he was an assemblymember."

Democrats argued during this last session that their budget fully funds pensions and schools.

Ciattarelli objects to the school funding formula, which he has long pledged to reform.

Speaking to InsiderNJ earlier today, state Senator Paul Sarlo (D-36) emphasized that the structural deficit is less now than it was during the Christie years. In addition, he notes the $6 billion surplus that will steady New Jersey for the tsunami wave of Trump's federal budget.

Trump's federal budget.

This is one area where Sherrill will obviously look for an edge, as she seeks to intensify her argument about the injustice and mangled priorities of the sitting GOP President and his "big, beautiful bill" (currently under discussion in the United States Capitol).

Ciattarelli accepted Trump's endorsement during the Republican Primary for Governor, following a meeting with the President at the latter's golf course.

Trump's budget bill, which already produced a "no mas" response from U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), bloats the deficit, rewards the rich and cuts 12 million people from Medicaid.

"We can and must do better than this," said Tillis. "The Senate should return to the House’s Medicaid approach. That plan includes commonsense reforms to address waste, fraud, and abuse, and implements work requirements for some able-bodied adults to ensure taxpayer-funded benefits are going to our most vulnerable neighbors."

Steamed by the bill, U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-6) said, "The biggest wealth transfer in American history is happening right now. Republicans are just not calling it that because 'Steal from the middle class and give Bezos another yacht' doesn’t test well in focus groups. Republicans are cutting Medicaid, shutting down nursing homes, killing solar, while RAISING taxes on the middle class, and calling that 'fiscal responsibility'? This is like a Bond villain origin story. Indefensible and terrible for the American people."

Pallone told InsiderNJ that Trump's budget will jeopardize the Medicaid benefits of 800,000 New Jerseyans.

In a head-to-head state versus federal budget showdown:

$6 billion surplus verse a $3.3 trillion federal deficit.

Who has the better perception?

All fair game for Sherrill as she attempts to double down on her depiction of Ciattarelli as a "Trump lackey."

But Ciattarelli appears ready for those attacks, and more than willing to talk economics and property taxes.

"Listen, when people are calling you names it's usually a sign that they're very worried about your candidacy," the Republican told InsiderNj on Election Day. "We're going to focus on the issues of concern to the people of New Jersey."

What about Trump, though?

"He's on top of the issues that matter to New Jersey voters," Ciattarelli said of the President. "He wants to quadruple our salt tax deductions so we can deduct property taxes on our fed tax returns. I'm honored to have his endorsement and welcome his active involvement.

"People do not want us to be a sanctuary state," he added. "They want support for local law enforcement, so we don't have things like flash mobs like we had at the Jersey Shore."

Finally, whatever one thinks about that assessment, New Jerseyans want solutions to New Jersey's problems, not merely a perpetuation of the blame game.

And most people don't see the state heading in the right direction.

From the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released this week:

Forty-eight percent of residents say New Jersey is on the wrong track, compared with 39% who
say it is headed in the right direction; 14% are unsure.

“The latest numbers on where New Jerseyans think the state is headed continue a trend we’ve seen in the past few years of a divided outlook that has often been more negative than positive,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “The current gap between right track and wrong direction is now at its widest since March 2022. And much like everything else in today’s political climate, views on the state’s future are heavily influenced by partisanship.”

Adds Koning:

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (63%) say the state is headed in the right direction, while three quarters of Republicans (77%) say it’s headed off on the wrong track, according to the poll conducted in mid-June. Independents somewhat mirror the population as a whole: 32% say the state is headed in the right direction versus 48% saying it is on the wrong track. White residents and those in higher income brackets are all more likely than their respective counterparts to have a negative view.

Ciattarelli will blame Democrats and throw their attempts at targeted middle class tax relief under a high-powered microscope.

Assemblyman Brian Bergen (R-Morris) last night eviscerated the Democrats' Stay NJ initiative as shell game, reasserting his central criticisms of the program, which ostensibly relieves New Jersey's seniors.

"I would support a tax break for businesses that create jobs or an income tax cut for those who reinvest in our economy when it cuts taxes they pay," Bergen wrote in a 2023 Op-Ed. "But I can’t fathom a scheme that takes sales taxes collected at grocery stores and income taxes from the average family and essentially transfers that money to a senior who makes nearly a half-million a year. New Jersey Policy Perspective released a report saying 41% of the total benefits under the original proposal would go to the top 20% of highest-income households in the state, while only 5% would go to the bottom 20% of households."

Sherrill will blame Trump and argue his grotesque self-aggrandizement at the expense of real New Jerseyans.

But those are the starting points of this campaign.

In the end, the winner will have convinced people that he or she stands for them, and their economic interests, not a political party, and not a President.