NJGOP Tries to Make it a Real Race in Blue New Jersey
Democrats have been giddy of late – or ever since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the presidential ticket.
Polls, more or less, confirm that enthusiasm. No matter if you look at statewide or national polls, Harris is doing much better against Donald Trump than Biden was.
In the constant media focus on “battleground states,” New Jersey never makes the cut. Good reason for that – the last GOP presidential candidate to win New Jersey was George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Nonetheless, the state Republican Committee is singing another tune, and talking pretty bravely.
In a release and solicitation Thursday headlined “Breaking News,” the state committee trumpeted the following:
“This is a big deal! The latest public poll shows NJ Democrats are in danger, and our state could very well be in ‘swing state’ territory!”
Really?
The release refers to a poll taken by National Research Inc., a Republican pollster, that gives Democrat Andy Kim a mere 5-point lead over Republican Curtis Bashaw in the U.S. Senate race.
Moreover, Republicans say that in the generic ballot, Democrats have a smaller lead of only 4-points – 45 to 41.
This is interesting to be sure, but partisan polls are often unreliable.
At the bottom of the Republicans’ communication is something that probably should have been the lead.
That was a reminder that voting actually begins in 24 days when mail-in voters will receive their ballots.
“We have a plan to reach every single vote-by-mail recipient and ensure Republican ballots are returned quickly, safely, and securely. We will protect the vote,” the state committee says.
This is more of a big deal than the poll.
As has been well documented, Republican and conservative voters often eschew voting by mail. It is common for Dems to return about three times as many mail-in ballots as Republicans do.
The practical result is that when polls close and the mail-in vote is released, Democratic candidates often have a big lead. It’s like always losing by two touchdowns at the end of the first quarter.
Curiously, I have heard many GOP leaders and candidates telling voters to trust the mail-in process and put their vote “in the bank,” thereby leaving nothing to chance on Election Day – like an illness, lousy weather or family emergency.
So far it hasn’t worked.
But now Republicans say they “have a plan.”
Let’s see how it turns out.
Republicans are living in a dream world.
NJ is redder than the media would have us believe.
Maryann, stop living on a dream world. There are almost a million more registered Democrats than Republicans. No way NJ is turning red.
Let’s se….Democrats good for NJ..as long as you like to keep paying more and more taxes! GO RED! It’s time for a change!
The state’s electorate is now 38.3% Democratic, 24.2% Republican, and 36.3% unaffiliated, sometimes called independents. The independents are what nobody knows how they’ll vote. The GOP has outpaced Democratic registration by nearly 3-1 margin since last fall. This is starting to show in local state senate and assembly races, and the Governor’s race.