Election Day Commentary from Prof. Ben Dworkin

Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship (RIPPAC)

Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ

November 5, 2019

The following is on-the-record commentary from:   Professor Ben Dworkin, Director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship (RIPPAC) at Rowan University in Glassboro, NJ

Low Turnout

With the Assembly at the top of the ticket, we expect turnout to be low statewide, probably about 25%.  The number could tick up a few points in the most competitive races, but overall, only about 1 in 4 registered voters will be casting ballots this year.

By way of comparison, in next year’s presidential race, we expect turnout to be 75% or even a little higher.

The Races to Watch

Democrats currently have a 54-to-26 majority in the General Assembly.  No one expects that control of the legislature is at stake.

Of the 40 districts, each electing two members of the General Assembly, there are seven districts that are seriously competitive and therefore have garnered a bulk of the campaign spending and media attention.

In four of these districts, the Democrats are defending incumbents:

**        District 1 (Cumberland and Cape May counties),

**        District 2 (Atlantic City area)

**        District 11 (Asbury Park area), and

**        District 16 (Somerville/Princeton area).

In the other three of the seven competitive districts, Republicans are defending incumbents:

**        District 8 (Burlington County),

**        District 21 (Union County), and

**        District 25 (Morris County).

What’s Significant About These Competitive Districts

LD1 and LD2 are almost always competitive.

LD11 and LD16 reflect relatively recent pickups for the Democrats.  Republicans still view these districts as having a high potential to flip back to the GOP, and therefore run aggressive campaigns.

More importantly:  For veteran Trenton observers, the fact that Districts 8, 21 and 25 are competitive at all is stunning.

Just a few years ago, these suburban districts were considered solid Republican areas.

The fact that the Democrats have “expanded the map” and put these districts in play is one of the most interesting dynamics of the 2019 election.  A big reason is the shift in partisan voter registration throughout the state.

Blue and Getting Bluer

New Jersey has been a solid Democratic state for a while now, and it is getting more Democratic.

Just 12 years ago, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in New Jersey by about 290,000.

Today, in 2019, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in New Jersey by more than 990,000.

In just over a decade, Democrats have more than tripled their voter registration advantage.

These new Democrats are not all living in traditional Democratic areas.  Instead, they are moving to traditional Republican areas, such as the counties of Burlington, Somerset, western Union, and eastern Morris.

The shift in partisan registration numbers is a major trend that has had the effect of turning previously reliable, suburban Republican districts into much more competitive areas.

The LD21 Voter Registration Shift

A good example of how these partisan voter registration trends are affecting today’s elections can be seen in Legislative District 21, currently represented by Assembly Republican Leader Jon Bramnick and Assemblywoman Nancy Munoz.

According to the NJ Division of Elections:

As of 11/2/2009 – in LD21

Registered D’s                        40,861

Registered R’s                        42,360

Registered Unaffiliated          64,680

So the GOP had a +1,499 registration advantage in 2009.

As of 11/3/2019 – in LD21

Registered D’s                        52,434

Registered R’s                        47,042

Registered Unaffiliated          67,190

In a decade, the district has changed to give the DEMOCRATS a +5,392 registration advantage.  That’s a 6,891 swing.

If Bramnick and Munoz lose tonight, it will be in large part because of the electoral changes in that district that are emblematic of the voter registration shifts in this state.

Three Factors Favoring the Democratic Campaigns

There are three big factors that favor Democrats this year:

First, they have MUCH more money than the Republicans.  Democrats have outraised Republicans by more than 3-to-1.

Money won’t always win the election, but every campaign wishes they had more of it than less.

Second, Democrats are up against a battered GOP brand.  Between the final four years of Chris Christie’s term – culminating with the iconic “sitting on the beach” photo – and the steady unpopularity of Donald Trump in New Jersey, the Republican label isn’t what it used to be.

The third factor that is favoring the Democrats this year is, as outlined above, voter registration.

The Influence of Governor Murphy on the Electorate

Republicans have branded this election as a “Murphy Midterm” and have steadily attacked the Governor’s progressive agenda and the support it finds among Democrats in the legislature.

While Murphy’s disapproval ratings have been rising, his approval ratings continue to be quite good statewide, ranging from the low 40s to the low 50s, depending on the poll.

There aren’t vast numbers of New Jerseyans who dislike the Governor intensely.  That will make it harder for an anti-Murphy message to resonate across the board.

The Influence of President Trump on the Electorate

With the probable exception of LD1, the President’s strong disapproval numbers aren’t particularly helpful to Republicans running in New Jersey this year.

But most voters don’t see this election as a referendum on the White House.  That having been said, the president still has an influence, in that he has energized a large number of college-educated, suburban women, many of whom live in what were previously safe Republican districts, on behalf of the Democrats.  We saw the strong influence of these voters in the 2018 congressional elections.

Legislative Democrats in New Jersey have been working to keep these college-educated, suburban women energized on their behalf, which is partially why they have been very focused on the issues of gun control and health care.

In LD1, a district that Trump won, the President is much more of an asset and his robo-call on behalf of Republican candidates may make a difference in spurring GOP turnout.