Sherrill and Ciattarelli are early leaders in 2025 Governor’s Race

Dems clustered near top in their race; Ciattarelli and Spadea lead among Republicans

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, January 9, 2023 – While the 2025 gubernatorial election in New Jersey is still more than two years away, candidates for the Republican and Democratic nomination have already begun to jockey for position. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, 11^th District Congresswoman Mikie Sherill, First Lady Tammy Murphy and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka have the highest favorability ratings among Democrats, and 2021 Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli and talk show host Bill Spadea have early advantages in the Republican race.

Governor Murphy’s approval ratings have risen substantially in the past few months, as inflation has eased and gas prices have come down. He now has the approval of 48 percent of New Jersey residents, up 8 points from October. Thirty-six percent disapprove, down four points since October. However, term limits mean that he is not eligible to run in 2025, and Democrats have started to line up to replace him.

“Right now, the race on the Democratic side is wide open,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “There are a lot of candidates who have been biding their time and waiting for their chance, and this it.”

Former State Senate President Steve Sweeney, who lost his seat in a surprise upset, has already declared his candidacy for governor in 2025, and gotten the support of the state’s Building Trades Union. Others, like Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka have publicly expressed interest in running. Some potential candidates, notably Senator Cory Booker, have said that they will not run. However, the race is far from set, and a number of names are being discussed in political circles, including the current lieutenant governor, Sheila Oliver, US Representative Sherrill, and even current first lady Murphy. Both Fulop and Sweeney were seen as strong challengers for the Democratic nomination in 2017, but neither formally announced their candidacy, declining to challenge Governor Murphy for the nomination.

Among Democrats, Tammy Murphy has the highest name recognition (73 percent), with Sweeney, Baraka, Oliver and Sherrill in the second tier. Fulop trails, with just 34 percent name recognition among Democrats statewide. To put these figures in context, the poll also asked about two fictional political figures, who were described as being either a Mayor, or a member of the Assembly, and a Democrat or a Republican. So, one respondent might be asked about Democratic Mayor Paula Hawkins, while another might be asked about Republican Assemblywoman Paula Hawkins. These fictional candidates had about 12 percent name recognition, which tells us that about 12 percent of New Jersey residents will claim to recognize – and sometimes offer opinions about – any name put to them. As such, a 41 percent name recognition among Democrats – as Sherrill has – is realistically more like 29 percent. By this measure, only one of the candidates – First Lady Murphy – has greater than 50 precent name recognition within her own party.

Of course, name recognition isn’t everything: more important, perhaps, is the percent of party members with favorable and unfavorable views of a potential candidate. By this measure, Congresswoman Sherill has a narrow lead over other contenders. Only 41 percent of Democrats say that they recognize her, but 28% of Democrats statewide have a favorable view of the third term Member of the House, and only one percent have a negative view of her. In contrast, 73 percent of Democrats have heard of First Lady Murphy, but just 27 percent report a favorable view, and 43 percent don’t have an opinion. Sweeney is the most polarizing figure among Democrats: while 55 percent recognize his name, almost the same percentage of Democrats like (19 percent) and dislike (16 percent) him.

“Sherrill has an early lead in favorability, and she’s proven herself as a world class fundraiser,” said Cassino. “But New Jersey is still often driven by history and connections, and that could give insiders like Sweeney or Oliver an edge.”

On the Republican side, the 2021 Republican nominee, Jack Ciattarelli, outperformed expectations in the last governor’s race, and has announced that he will again seek the party’s nomination. There are also a number of other Republican names that have been bandied about, ranging from talk show host and former congressional nominee Bill Spadea to current office holders like Mike Testa and State Senator Holly Schepisi.

“Ciattarelli did better than anyone was expecting in 2021, so it makes sense that he wants another shot” said Cassino. “But in an open race, there are going to be some big guns who want the nomination, and Ciattarelli is going to have a fight on his hands if he wants to get it again.”

Among these candidates, Ciattarelli has the advantage of having been a recent nominee: 76 percent of Republicans say that they recognize him, and 47 percent have a favorable view of him. Close behind him, though, are talk show host Spadea and State Senator Mike Testa. Spadea has 37 percent name recognition among Republicans, though 14 percent of Republicans say that they recognize the fictional candidates, so the true figure is about 23 percent. Of that 37 percent, though, 26 percent say that they have a favorable view of him, with only 3 percent holding an unfavorable view. Testa has insignificantly higher name recognition – 41 percent – but only 20 percent of Republicans statewide have a favorable view of him. Rounding out the list of potential Republican nominees is State Senator Schepisi, who is in her first full term in the upper house of the legislature, having previously served in the State Assembly. She has just 22 percent name recognition among Republicans statewide, so only about 8 percent actually know who she is.

“Schepisi has made an impression on Republicans in Trenton, helped by the fact that she was against vaccine mandates before it was fashionable,” said Cassino. “But that hasn’t yet reached the broader Republican electorate.”

Another potential barrier for may of these candidates comes for the regional nature of their support. While some high-profile candidates like First Lady Murphy and Ciattarelli are known throughout the state, others are unfamiliar to voters in some parts. For instance, Baraka has 60 percent name recognition in the northeastern and urban core counties, but only 25 percent recognition in South Jersey. Sixty-eight percent of residents in northwestern New Jersey know who Mikie Sherrill is, but but that figure is just 34 percent in the urban core, and 14 percent in the south. Similarly, Spadea has 36 percent name recognition in the coastal counties of Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, and Ocean, but only 17 percent in the northeastern part of the state.

Space limitations precluded asking about all of the potential candidates for the governor’s race. Others not asked about in the poll include Republican Jon Bramnick and State Senator Declan O’Shanlon. Democrats Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, Representative Josh Gottheimer and 2017 gubernatorial candidate John Wisniewski are also believed to be interested in running.

Methodology

The survey was conducted between February 1 and February 6, 2023, using a certified list of adult New Jersey residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list, and contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 808 respondents. 235 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, and the remainder (573) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones, or via live caller cell phone interviews. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of adult NJ residents, as of the 2020 US Census. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.3.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 808 residents is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.6 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

808 New Jersey Residents

Figures are weighted to overall voter characteristics from the 2020 US Census. Respondents who refused to answer a demographic item are not included.

Man                                 47%                 N = 381

Woman                             51%                 N = 412

Some Other Way           2%                  N = 15

18-30                           17%                N = 136

31-44                           29%                 N = 232

45-64                           33%                 N = 264

65+                               21%                 N = 168

Democrat (with leaners)              50%                 N = 357

Independent                                  15%                 N = 110

Republican (with leaners)           35%                 N = 246

White                                            55%                N = 443

Black                                               11%                N = 92

Hispanic/Latino/a                                      18%                N = 145

Asian                                        9%                  N = 69

Other/Multi-racial                                     2%                  N = 15

No college degree                       55%                N = 447

College degree or more              45%                N = 350

Question Wording and Order

NJ1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

1. Approve
2. Disapprove
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

[NJ2-NJ6 Held for future release]

I’m going to read you the names of some people who might run for Governor of New Jersey in the next election. Some are already well known, and some aren’t. For each, tell me if you’ve heard of them, and, if you have, whether you have a positive or negative view of them.

[Respondents are randomly assigned to get the candidates in order A or B]

Order A:

1. Newark Mayor Democrat Ras Baraka
2. Republican State Senator Holly Schepisi
3. Former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli
4. Jersey City Mayor Democrat Steven Fulop
5. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblywoman] Paula Hawkins*
6. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblyman] Vance Kassebaum*
7. Current first lady Democrat Tammy Murphy
8. Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill
9. Republican Talk Show Host Bill Spadea
10. Republican State Senator Mike Testa
11. Lieutenant Governor Democrat Sheila Oliver
12. Former Democratic Senate President Stephen Sweeney

Order B:

1. Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill
2. Republican State Senator Holly Schepisi
3. Current first lady Democrat Tammy Murphy
4. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblywoman] Paula Hawkins*
5. Lieutenant Governor Democrat Sheila Oliver
6. Newark Mayor Democrat Ras Baraka
7. Former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli
8. Jersey City Mayor Democrat Steven Fulop
9. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblyman] Vance Kassebaum*
10. Republican Talk Show Host Bill Spadea
11. Republican State Senator Mike Testa
12. Former Democratic Senate President Stephen Sweeney

[Hawkins and Kassebaum are made up names, used as baselines. They are randomly assigned across Dem/Rep and Mayor/Assembly Member]

For each:

C1. Have you heard of [insert name here]?

1. Yes
2. No
3. Refused [vol]

C2. [If C1 is “yes”] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them, or do you not know enough about them to have an opinion?

1. Favorable
2. Unfavorable
3. Don’t know enough to have an opinion
4. Refused [vol]

Region Classifications

Northwest: Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren Counties
Northeast: Bergen and Passaic Counties
Urban Core: Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, and Union Counties
South: Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem Counties
Coast: Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, and Ocean Counties

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