MONMOUTH NATIONAL POLL: McGAHN, MUELLER SHOULD TESTIFY

 

 

Trump rating stable; less than half say Russia ‘definitely’ interfered in 2016

 

West Long Branch, NJ – Most Americans would like to see special counsel Robert Mueller and former White House counsel Don McGahn appear before Congress to testify about the Russia investigation. The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds widespread public support for providing Congress an unredacted copy of Mueller’s report, while at the same time showing a preference for having the legislative branch move on to other issues. Public opinion on Russian interference in the 2016 election has not changed following the report’s publication. The poll also finds continued stability for President Donald Trump’s job rating, re-election prospects, and public appetite for impeachment.

Two-thirds of Americans (67%) say that McGahn should appear before Congress to testify about what he knew as a key witness in the investigation. This includes 56% who say that McGahn should appear at a public hearing and 10% who say that it should only be in a closed setting. One-fifth (20%) say McGahn should not appear before Congress. Most Democrats (90%) and independents (65%) say McGahn should testify before Congress, while Republicans are split (41% should and 38% should not). The poll was taken before McGahn refused to appear for a scheduled House Judiciary Committee hearing on Tuesday.

A majority expects that Congress could learn something new from McGahn, although just 22% say this is very likely to happen while 30% say it is only somewhat likely. Another 14% say it is not too likely and 23% say it is not at all likely that Congress would learn anything from McGahn’s testimony that was not already in the Muller report. Another 12% are unsure. Just over half of the public has heard about McGahn’s participation in the Mueller investigation – 12% have heard a lot and 45% a little about it – but more than 4-in-10 (43%) have not heard anything about this.

Nearly 3-in-4 Americans (73%) say that Mueller should appear before Congress to testify about his investigation. This includes 58% who say that Mueller should appear at a public hearing and 14% who say that it should only be in a closed setting. Another 20% say Mueller should not appear before Congress.

More than two-thirds of the public (69%) says that Congress should get a full version of the Mueller report along with supporting documents. Just 21% say Congress should only have access to the redacted version. In a Monmouth poll released the day before the Mueller report was published last month, 60% said Congress should have access to the full report. Republicans are slightly more likely to support (44%) than oppose (40%) giving Congress the full report. In April, just 33% of Republicans supported releasing the full report while 55% opposed this. Fully 91% of Democrats and 68% of independents currently say Congress should be able to see the full report.

While a clear majority of the public supports getting more details about the Mueller report, just over half (52%) say that Congress should move on to other issues now that the investigation has concluded. Just 41% say that Congress should continue to look into concerns related to the inquiry. These results are similar to the public’s opinion last month just before the report was released when 54% said it was time to move on and 39% wanted Congress to continue the investigation.

“The public wants the air to be cleared, but the poll sends some mixed messages. This investigation has become so pervasive that it is seen as distracting Congress from the business of governing. The irony is that further stonewalling by the Trump administration could actually pay off in short-term political losses for the Democrats as they get bogged down in legal battles over subpoenas,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump’s overall job rating stands at 40% approve and 52% disapprove, which is similar to his 40% to 54% rating in April. Over the past 12 months, the president’s approval rating has ranged between 40% and 44% while his disapproval rating has ranged between 46% and 54%. The president’s job rating with different partisan groups currently stands at 86% approve and 11% disapprove among Republicans, 37% to 50% among independents, and 6% to 91% among Democrats.

Fewer than 4-in-10 registered voters (37%) say that Trump should be reelected in 2020. A majority of 60% say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office. These results have been fairly consistent since November.

The poll finds that 39% of Americans feel that Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency while 56% disagree with this course of action. Support for the president’s removal via impeachment has ranged between 36% and 42% since July 2017. Opposition to impeachment has ranged between 53% and 59% during the same time.

“Once again, the main Trump metrics are basically impervious to current events. A majority want someone else in the Oval Office, but are willing to wait until the next election,” said Murray.

The poll also finds stability in the public’s assessment of Russian interference in the last U.S. presidential election. Even though the Mueller report’s conclusion about this was unambiguous, just under half (44%) of the public says that Russia definitely tried to interfere in the 2016 election. This compares to between 36% and 43% who said the same in prior polls. Another 29% say that Russian interference probably happened, 12% say it probably did not happen and 11% say that it definitely did not happen. Just under half (49%) say Russian interference caused a lot of damage to American democracy. Prior poll results ranged between 44% and 47% who said this interference caused a lot of damage. Another 19% say this caused a little damage and 28% say it caused no damage.

Over half of the public feels that Russia also tried to interfere in last year’s midterm elections (21% definitely and 36% probably). This is slightly lower than the number who expected this to happen in a March 2018 poll (26% definitely and 38% probably). Still, 60% of the public says that the U.S. is not doing enough to stop Russian interference in the American electoral system. Just 28% say that it is doing enough. These findings are in line with past poll results.

The Monmouth University Poll also finds that 20% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing and 71% disapprove. A little over one-quarter (29%) say the country is headed in the right direction while 63% say things have gotten off on the wrong track. These results are similar to Monmouth poll findings from last month.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from May 16 to 20, 2019 with 802 adults in the United States.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

 

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

 

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
  TREND: May
2019
April 2019 March 2019 Jan.
2019
Nov.
2018
Aug.
2018
June
2018
April
2018
March
2018
Jan.
2018
Dec.
2017
Sept.
2017
Aug.
2017
July
2017
May
2017
March
2017
Approve 40% 40% 44% 41% 43% 43% 43% 41% 39% 42% 32% 40% 41% 39% 39% 43%
Disapprove 52% 54% 51% 54% 49% 50% 46% 50% 54% 50% 56% 49% 49% 52% 53% 46%
(VOL) No opinion 8% 6% 5% 5% 8% 7% 11% 9% 8% 8% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 11%
(n) (802) (801) (802) (805) (802) (805) (806) (803) (803) (806) (806) (1,009) (805) (800) (1,002) (801)

 

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?
  TREND: May
2019
April
2019
March
2019
Jan.
2019
Approve 20% 24% 23% 18%
Disapprove 71% 62% 68% 72%
(VOL) No opinion 9% 14% 9% 10%
(n) (802) (801) (802) (805)

 

  TREND: Continued Nov.
2018
Aug.
2018
June
2018
April
2018
March
2018
Jan.
2018
Dec.
2017
Sept.
2017
Aug.
2017
July
2017
May
2017
March
2017
Jan.
2017
Approve 23% 17% 19% 17% 18% 21% 16% 17% 18% 19% 19% 25% 23%
Disapprove 63% 69% 67% 71% 72% 68% 65% 69% 69% 70% 68% 59% 66%
(VOL) No opinion 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 11% 19% 15% 13% 11% 13% 16% 11%
(n) (802) (805) (806) (803) (803) (806) (806) (1,009) (805) (800) (1,002) (801) (801)

 

  TREND: Continued Sept.
2016*
Aug.
2016*
June
2016*
March
2016
Jan.
2016
Dec.
2015
Oct.
2015
Sept.
2015
Aug.
2015
July
2015
June
2015
April
2015
Jan.
2015
Dec.
2014
July
2013
Approve 15% 14% 17% 22% 17% 16% 17% 19% 18% 18% 19% 21% 18% 17% 14%
Disapprove 77% 78% 76% 68% 73% 73% 71% 71% 72% 69% 71% 67% 70% 73% 76%
(VOL) No opinion 8% 9% 7% 10% 10% 10% 12% 11% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 11% 10%
(n) (802) (803) (803) (1,008) (1,003) (1,006) (1,012) (1,009) (1,203) (1,001) (1,002) (1,005) (1,003) (1,008) (1,012)

* Registered voters

 

  1. Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
  TREND: May
2019
April
2019
March
2019
Nov.
2018
Aug.
2018
June
2018
April
2018
March
2018
Jan.
2018
Dec.
2017
Aug.
2017
May
2017
March
2017
Jan.
2017
Right direction 29% 28% 29% 35% 35% 40% 33% 31% 37% 24% 32% 31% 35% 29%
Wrong track 63% 62% 63% 55% 57% 53% 58% 61% 57% 66% 58% 61% 56% 65%
(VOL) Depends 4% 7% 6% 7% 6% 3% 5% 6% 3% 7% 4% 5% 4% 4%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 5% 3% 5% 2%
(n) (802) (801) (802) (802) (805) (806) (803) (803) (806) (806) (805) (1,002) (801) (801)

 

  TREND: Continued Aug.
2016*
Oct.
2015
July
2015
June
2015
April
2015
Dec.
2014
July
2013
Right direction 30% 24% 28% 23% 27% 23% 28%
Wrong track 65% 66% 63% 68% 66% 69% 63%
(VOL) Depends 2% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4%
(n) (803) (1,012) (1,001) (1,002) (1,005) (1,008) (1,012)

* Registered voters

 

[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]

  1. Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the Presidency, or not?
TREND: May
2019
March
2019
Nov.
2018
April
2018
Jan.
2018
July
2017
Yes, should 39% 42% 36% 39% 38% 41%
No, should not 56% 54% 59% 56% 57% 53%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6%
(n) (802) (802) (802) (803) (806) (800)

 

[REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY: moe= +/- 3.7%]

TREND: REGISTERED VOTERS May
2019
March
2019
Jan.
2019
Nov.
2018
Should be re-elected 37% 38% 38% 37%
Someone else in office 60% 57% 57% 58%
(VOL) Don’t know 4% 5% 5% 4%
(n) (719) (746) (735) (716)

 

  1. Now that the Mueller investigation is over, should Congress move on to other issues or are there still concerns related to that investigation that Congress should continue to look into?
TREND: May
2019
April
2019
Congress should move on 52% 54%
Congress should continue to look into 41% 39%
(VOL) Depends 2% 2%
(VOL) Don’t know 5% 5%
(n) (802) (801)

 

  1. The Justice Department released a redacted version of the Mueller report. Should Congress be able to have a full version of the report including supporting documents or should it only be able to have the redacted version?
TREND: May
2019
April
2019*
Be able to have a full version 69% 60%
Only be able to have the redacted version 21% 30%
(VOL) Depends 2% 5%
(VOL) Don’t know 7% 5%
(n) (802) (801)

[* April 2019 question wording: “Should the Justice Department provide the full Mueller report to Congress or should it be able to redact or black out some information it considers sensitive?”]

 

  1. Do you think Robert Mueller should or should not appear before Congress to testify about his investigation?  [If SHOULD: Should Mueller testify in a public hearing or in a private hearing that is closed to the public?]
  May
2019
Should – public hearing 54%
Should – private hearing 14%
Should – both (VOL) 4%
Should – unsure which 1%
Should not 20%
(VOL) Don’t know 7%
(n) (802)

 

  1. The former White House counsel Don McGahn was a key witness in the Mueller investigation. How much have you heard about the information he provided – a lot, a little, or nothing at all?
  May
2019
A lot 12%
A little 45%
Nothing at all 43%
(n) (802)

 

  1. Do you think Don McGahn should or should not appear before Congress to testify about what he knew?   [If SHOULD: Should McGahn testify in a public hearing or in a private hearing that is closed to the public?]
  May
2019
Should – public hearing 51%
Should – private hearing 10%
Should – both (VOL) 5%
Should – unsure which 1%
Should not 20%
(VOL) Don’t know 14%
(n) (802)

 

  1. How likely is it that Congress would learn something new from McGahn’s testimony that was not included in the Mueller report – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?
  May
2019
Very likely 22%
Somewhat likely 30%
Not too likely 14%
Not at all likely 23%
(VOL) Don’t know 12%
(n) (802)

 

  1. Do you think the Russian government tried to interfere in the 2016 presidential election – would you say definitely, probably, probably not, or definitely not?
  May
2019
Jan
2019
March
2018
July
2017
Definitely 44% 40% 43% 36%
Probably 29% 29% 30% 29%
Probably not 12% 16% 14% 18%
Definitely not 11% 10% 9% 10%
(VOL) Don’t know 4% 4% 3% 6%
(n) (802) (805) (803) (800)

 

  1. If Russia did interfere in the presidential election, how much damage did it cause to American democracy – a lot, a little, or none at all?
TREND: May
2019
Jan.
2019
March
2018
July
2017
A lot 49% 46% 44% 47%
A little 19% 21% 25% 21%
None at all 28% 30% 29% 28%
(VOL) Don’t know 4% 3% 3% 4%
   (n) (802) (805) (803) (800)

 

  1. Do you think the Russian government tried to interfere in the 2018 midterm election – would you say definitely, probably, probably not, or definitely not?
TREND: May
2019
March
2018*
Definitely 21% 26%
Probably 36% 38%
Probably not 22% 20%
Definitely not 12% 11%
(VOL) Don’t know 8% 5%
(n) (802) (803)

[* March 2018 question wording: “Do you think the Russian government is trying to interfere in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections?”]

 

  1. Is the U.S. government doing enough or not doing enough to stop Russian interference in the American electoral system?
TREND: Jan.
2019
Jan.
2019
March
2018
Enough 28% 27% 27%
Not enough 60% 57% 59%
(VOL) No interference happening 3% 2% 2%
(VOL) Don’t know 9% 14% 12%
   (n) (802) (805) (803)

 

[Q16-33 held for future release.]

 

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from May 16 to 20, 2019 with a national random sample of 802 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 322 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 480 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

 

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
Self-Reported
25% Republican
44% Independent
31% Democrat
 
48% Male
52% Female
 
31% 18-34
33% 35-54
36% 55+
 
64% White
12% Black
16% Hispanic
  8% Asian/Other
 
69% No degree
31% 4 year degree
 

 

MARGIN OF ERROR
unweighted  sample moe
(+/-)
TOTAL   802 3.5%
REGISTERED VOTER Yes 719 3.7%
No 83 10.8%
SELF-REPORTED PARTY ID Republican 210 6.8%
Independent 335 5.4%
Democrat 246 6.3%
IDEOLOGY Liberal 191 7.1%
Moderate 315 5.5%
Conservative 270 6.0%
GENDER Male 387 5.0%
Female 415 4.8%
AGE 18-34 165 7.6%
35-54 292 5.7%
55+ 340 5.3%
RACE White, non-Hispanic 554 4.2%
Other 222 6.6%
COLLEGE GRADUATE No degree 407 4.9%
4 year degree 387 5.0%
WHITE COLLEGE White, no degree 268 6.0%
White, 4 year degree 284 5.8%
INCOME <$50K 273 5.9%
$50 to <100K 213 6.7%
$100K+ 251 6.2%
2016 VOTE BY COUNTY

 

Trump 10+ pts 249 6.2%
Swing <10 pts 159 7.8%
Clinton 10+ pts 394 4.9%

 

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