The following is attributable to Dr. Hale: 

“The polls are showing Mikie Sherrill up by 6 to 8 points, but it sure feels a lot closer than that. In the last election, Phil Murphy was up by at least 10 points in most polls at this point in 2021 and he only won by 3.  I think this could be even closer. Sherrill is still likely to win but it could be by a whisker.

“One reason it feels closer is the intensity of some activist groups. For example, supporters of the immigrant trust directive are pushing really hard on state officials to pass it and local officials to pass resolutions in support of it before the election.  It has to be now because they are worried that Ciattarelli could win and if he does it won’t happen.

“The upcoming debate on the 21^st is going to be important. If either candidate makes a mistake that could be the dominant narrative the rest of the way. For example, if Jack makes an overly positive comment about Trump you can bet it will end up in a Sherrill ad.  Similarly, if Mikie says she will follow an unpopular Murphy policy, it will end up in a Ciattarelli ad. My guess is both will avoid those kinds of mistakes but debates are one of the few places the unexpected can happen.

“It is important to remember that not only do Democrats have a registration advantage of about 800,000 votes, they have historically been much better at getting their people to turn out than Republicans have in off year elections like this.  In a close election, that ground game could be the difference.”

Dr. Hale's research focuses on the intersection of media and technology and the public and nonprofit sectors. He is a frequent media commentator and pundit on New Jersey and national politics.