Trump Up but Still Down

New Jerseyans See Benefits of Keeping Rather than Dumping ACA

Fairleigh Dickinson University, March 30, 2017 – President Trump’s approval increased in the Garden State over the past few months, but he remains hampered by a job approval rating that is epically low for a new administration.  The most recent survey of adults from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Donald Trump upside down in a big way, and Garden State residents largely convinced that the Affordable Care Act has improved the lives of many in New Jersey.

Donald Trump has the support of 28 percent, up from 18 percent in January. Sixty-one percent disapprove of the job he’s doing as president. Majorities of Democrats (88%) and independents (57%) disapprove, with Trump getting the most support from his fellow Republicans (72%). Men and women differ significantly in regard to the level of disapproval they have for the president’s job performance, with women more likely to say no to Trump than men. And although majorities of whites and non-whites disapprove, non-whites say they disapprove more than whites to the tune of 28 percentage points. (80 versus 52 percent, respectively).

“For a guy who has spent a lot of time at his New Jersey golf course, the president has a lot of ground to cover if he’s going to reverse the numbers and have more supporters than detractors in New Jersey. But, it’s still good news for him that at least in the Garden State, more residents support him today than they did when he took office a few months ago,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

President Trump is also polling slightly better than New Jersey’s two-term Republican governor, Chris Christie, who enjoys the support of only 20 percent of his constituents.

Today more respondents say the country is headed in the right direction, as compared with what the FDU poll found in January. However, as with the president’s job approval, right direction/wrong track numbers remain upside down. Fifty-eight percent say the country is headed down the wrong track, down from 73 percent in January. Thirty-one percent think the country is on solid footing, up from 20 percent in January.  Republicans are, by far, the group with the highest satisfaction with the country’s health under President Trump’s leadership.

With the defeat of the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, Garden State residents are not likely to be too disappointed. Even though the majority of Garden Staters with health insurance get it from their employer or their spouse’s employer (63%), and are thus not direct beneficiaries of the ACA, most (67%) believe the ACA helped the lives of those who were previously uninsured before the act was passed. When asked if the act helped those like themselves, 39 percent agreed, with 22 percent who believe the act was harmful, and 37 percent who believe the act made no difference to their lives.

Millennials are among the most likely to believe the ACA has benefitted both themselves personally (51%) and those without insurance before the act’s passage (73%). The same is true for women as compared to men, and non-whites as compared with whites. Among both groups, women and non-white respondents are significantly more likely to perceive the benefits of the act, both for themselves personally and for those who were previously uninsured. Partisan differences also prevail, with Democrats significantly more likely to perceive the act’s benefits as opposed to its limitations as compared with Republicans and independents.

“Obamacare was never a slam dunk in New Jersey, but there’s enough support for the act to warrant concern should it ever be repealed without an adequate replacement. This is especially true as it pertains to the significant funding the state receives to provide insurance for the poor through Medicaid’s expansion,” said Jenkins.

On the issue of Medicaid funding, when asked if the federal government should continue its assistance to the state in order to cover the uninsured among the poor and working poor, 83 percent say it should. Strong support exists for this element of the ACA across all demographics considered.

“As with most things in politics, taking something away is a lot harder than giving it to begin with. With millions in savings for the state since the act’s passage, in addition to the swell of those joining the ranks of the insured, federal assistance will continue to trump ideology when it comes to support for Medicaid expansion,” said Jenkins.

Methodology – The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone March 22-26, 2017 among a random sample of 816 adults in New Jersey. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect.

Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 448 interviews were conducted on landlines and 368 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F. PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.