After crushing defeats in the 2025 and 2026 election cycles, New Jersey Republicans are now on political life support.

Perhaps it’s because, as Kellyanne Conway once quipped, “Republicans lose because they run the same campaign with the same consultants and get the same results.”

Last year, Republicans suffered a gut-wrenching defeat in the gubernatorial race by more than 14 points, lost five legislative seats, and lost numerous county and municipal elections. But this year’s losses may have done even more lasting damage.

In a single election, the NJGOP lost two congressional seats and suffered more than 150 defeats at the county and municipal levels. Republican margins also eroded in the party’s southern strongholds—Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland—and in Morris, Warren and Hunterdon counties along the Route 80/78 corridor.

Democrats took a sledgehammer to the NJGOP’s red wall.

The problem goes beyond a bad election cycle. Republicans have struggled to turn out their own voters (except when Trump is on the ballot) and have failed to engage effectively with the state’s evolving political and demographic landscape—especially in its increasingly diverse, educated and affluent suburbs, including Bergen, Morris and Union counties, where independent voters often decide elections.

Democrats, meanwhile, turned out their voters, peeled off enough Republicans, and appealed to the same independents Republicans couldn’t reach.

The fallout from the 2026 Democratic blue wave may be just beginning.

Next year, every seat in the Legislature will be up for election. Three Republican state senators—Holly Schepisi in Bergen, Jon Bramnick in Union (if he survives a primary challenge), and Vince Polistina in Atlantic—will likely be targeted by state Democrats. Based on the ’26 results, Sen. Mike Testa and Senate Minority Leader Tony Bucco may also be targeted.

These legislators were once discussed as potential congressional candidates in 2028 or as 2029 gubernatorial contenders. Now, they must focus on winning reelection in 2027.

It’s a big deal.

Here are the stories behind the 2026 results—and what they tell us about the NJGOP’s future.

The Geography of Defeat

Tom Kean was a political dead man walking. Jeff Van Drew was expected to squeak by.

Neither survived. Their defeats, along with the Democratic sweep in Bergen, left three Republican state senators with plenty to worry about.

For the NJGOP, holding its 15 Senate seats and 25 Assembly seats in 2027 isn’t merely a political priority. It’s a test of whether the party can remain competitive heading into the 2028 presidential and congressional elections and the 2029 gubernatorial race.

Bergen: A Further Realignment

Three of Bergen’s all-time leading vote-getters were on the ballot: Bergen native Sen. Cory Booker, who has presidential aspirations; Rep. Josh Gottheimer, seeking his sixth term; and popular County Executive James Tedesco, seeking his fourth term.

All went as expected.

Booker led the ticket, carrying all but four of Bergen’s 70 municipalities. Gottheimer garnered 65.5% of the Bergen vote in CD-5, while Tedesco cruised to victory with more than 65%.

It’s a far cry from 2024, when Donald Trump came within three points of winning Bergen County. Those Republican gains were erased last year when Mikie Sherrill carried Bergen County by more than 36,000 votes.

Bergen, like much of North Jersey, is ethnically diverse, with affluent residents and young families who relocated from New York City during and after the pandemic.

As elsewhere in New Jersey, these demographic changes in the electorate pose an increasingly difficult challenge for Republicans, one they can’t seem to overcome.

Nowhere is Democratic strength more evident than in the cluster of municipalities along the Route 4 corridor, from Fort Lee to Fair Lawn. Six of Bergen’s larger municipalities—Teaneck, Hackensack, Fair Lawn, Fort Lee, Englewood, and Bergenfield—form what is often called the Bergen Blue Wall. These heavily Democratic communities have long delivered substantial margins for Democratic candidates.

This year was no different.

County Executive James Tedesco won 73.6% of the vote across these six municipalities, compared with Sherrill’s 64.2% last year. His 48,667 votes from these communities—1,835 more than Sherrill received—accounted for nearly a quarter of his roughly 196,000 countywide votes and 35.7% of his winning margin. Teaneck contributed the most votes, with 11,645, while Hackensack delivered the highest vote share, at 82.9%.

There simply aren’t enough Republican votes elsewhere in Bergen to overcome these margins.

But if competing against the Blue Wall is bad enough for the Bergen GOP, how about fending off another front?

Another Democratic cluster is emerging in northern Bergen, with potentially significant implications for 2027, especially for LD-39.

The Knickerbocker Road–Livingston Street corridor runs from Dumont north toward the New York border at Northvale. The surrounding Northern Valley communities were once among Bergen County’s most reliable Republican strongholds, represented for decades by the late state Sen. Gerry Cardinale.

If Democrats continue to expand their margins in these communities, they could pose a serious challenge to state Sen. Holly Schepisi and Assemblymen Robert Auth and John Azzariti in LD-39.

The warning signs appeared in 2025. Robert Auth and Azzariti combined for 51.2% of the four-candidate Assembly vote, compared with 48.8% for Democrats Andrew LaBruno and Donna Abene—a Republican advantage of just 2.4 percentage points in a district once considered safely red.

The 2026 results suggest that Democratic strength in the district is growing.

In the 2025 gubernatorial election, Mikie Sherrill defeated Jack Ciattarelli by a combined 2,907 votes across these nine Northern Valley municipalities. A year later, Tedesco defeated Republican challenger Todd Hennessey by 6,388 votes in the same nine towns—more than double Sherrill’s margin. But here’s the interesting part: Tedesco received just 298 more votes than Sherrill, while Hennessey received 3,183 fewer votes than Ciattarelli. Democratic margins increased in every municipality.

Are Democrats gaining strength in the Northern Valley—or are Republican voters staying home?

Despite this, Schepisi remains the favorite.

To her credit, Schepisi is respected, hardworking, and a strong fundraiser with a political base.

But Democrats have both electoral and political incentives to challenge her: Defeating Schepisi would also remove a Republican senator’s ability to exercise senatorial courtesy on certain Bergen County appointments requiring Senate confirmation—an important consideration for the Sherrill administration.

LD-39 will likely be among the most expensive legislative races in 2027. For Democrats, it’s an opportunity. For the Bergen GOP, holding Schepisi’s seat may be essential to its political survival.

Union: A Suburban Realignment

Rebecca Bennett didn’t merely defeat Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in CD-7. She won every county in the district.

For Republican state Sen. Jon Bramnick, the more troubling numbers came from the Union County suburbs in LD-21.

In the Union County portion of CD-7, Bennett received 54,567 votes to Kean’s 26,770—a Democratic margin of 27,797. Two years earlier, Kean had lost there by 14,104 votes to Democrat Sue Altman. The Democratic margin nearly doubled.

And where Bennett won should alarm Bramnick even more.

Bennett won about 68% of the vote in Westfield—Kean’s and Bramnick’s hometown—70% in Scotch Plains, 72% in Fanwood, and 66% in Summit. She also carried New Providence with 63% and Berkeley Heights with 61%. Even Mountainside narrowly voted Democratic.

Seven connected suburban municipalities. Seven Democratic victories.

And this didn’t begin with Bennett.

Last year, Democrats Andrew Macurdy and Vinnie Kearney defeated Republican Assemblywomen Nancy Muñoz and Michele Matsikoudis in LD-21. Macurdy beat Muñoz by 8,598 votes districtwide. However, five municipalities—Westfield, Springfield, Summit, New Providence and Berkeley Heights—gave Macurdy a combined 7,319-vote advantage that Muñoz couldn’t overcome.

But Bramnick has another problem. His criticism of Donald Trump and willingness to break with the GOP have angered conservatives and some rank-and-file Republicans. A serious primary challenge could force him to spend money and political capital he may desperately need in November.

Democrats, meanwhile, are eager to take him on. They captured both Assembly seats in LD-21 in 2025 and helped defeat Kean in 2026, thanks in part to Democratic margins in Union County’s suburban areas.

Bramnick is an experienced campaigner with a substantial personal following. But can his appeal overcome a Democratic-leaning cluster of affluent, educated suburbs—and a Republican base that may not fully support him?

Even with Bramnick’s trademark humor, personality alone may not be enough.

Atlantic: Three Townships and a Warning for Polistina

Jeff Van Drew wasn’t supposed to lose.

The Republican congressman had won in a district Donald Trump carried by nearly 13 points in 2024. On Election Day, he reportedly still had about $900,000 in his campaign account. However, Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock defeated Van Drew by about 7,100 votes, a result that surprised many, including Mullock.

What happened?

Atlantic County was the key, giving Mullock an 11,365-vote margin.

Atlantic City, the county’s traditional Democratic stronghold, gave Mullock a 3,969-vote plurality. But three adjoining townships—Egg Harbor, Galloway and Hamilton—dealt the blow.

Mullock carried Egg Harbor Township by 2,038 votes, Galloway by 1,818, and Hamilton by 1,678. Together, those three towns gave him a 5,534-vote advantage—about 78% of his districtwide margin.

Together, Atlantic City and the three townships accounted for a combined 9,503-vote Democratic margin, which represented 83.6% of the countywide advantage.

Polistina’s hometown and political base, Egg Harbor Township, didn’t just vote for Mullock. Democrats also swept three township committee races, defeating two Republican incumbents. In nearby Hamilton Township, Democrats took control of the governing body.

Consider Egg Harbor Township. In 2024, Trump carried it by about five points. In 2024, Sherrill carried it by roughly four points. In 2026, Mullock won it by more than 2,000 votes.

Polistina had already received a warning in 2025.

Democrats broke the Republican hold on LD-2’s two Assembly seats when Maureen Rowan defeated Republican incumbent Claire Swift, a hardworking, well-liked legislator from a prominent Atlantic County family. Republican Don Guardian, a former Atlantic City mayor, survived. Strikingly, the combined vote for Democratic Assembly candidates narrowly surpassed the Republican total.

That was before Democrats swept three seats on the township committee in Polistina’s hometown, and taking control of Hamilton Township.

Is Atlantic County experiencing a temporary Democratic surge—or the start of a political realignment that could threaten Polistina?

Now, go back to Polistina’s 2023 election. He carried Egg Harbor, Galloway, and Hamilton townships by a combined margin of 2,744 votes. In 2026, Mullock carried those same three townships by a margin of 5,534 votes.

That’s an 8,278-vote reversal in the Republican-Democratic candidate margin across three neighboring townships—in two different elections, three years apart, with substantially different turnout.

Polistina knows Atlantic County politics. But he also has enemies, and the Atlantic County GOP has been plagued by internal battles. Republicans spent years rebuilding their political strength in Atlantic County. Now, infighting threatens to undo much of that success.

And Democrats have their own reasons for wanting him gone.

Like Schepisi in Bergen, Polistina can also exercise senatorial courtesy on certain gubernatorial appointments that require Senate confirmation. Defeating him would remove a Republican obstacle to appointments important to Atlantic County Democrats and to the Sherrill administration.

That makes LD-2 more than just another potentially competitive legislative district.

Ultimately, the questions are money and unity (especially if South Jersey Democratic power broker George Norcross gets involved in the race). How much will Republicans have to spend to defend Polistina? And can the Atlantic County GOP set aside its internal battles long enough to help him win the race?

To his credit, Polistina has a personal following, a strong political operation and a reputation as a tireless campaigner.

He’ll need all three in 2027.

And perhaps a little luck.

The Warning for 2027

Schepisi, Bramnick, and Polistina are experienced legislators with personal followings, fundraising networks, and political organizations. Defeating any of them will not be easy.

But Democrats have momentum, money, a Democratic governor, and increasingly favorable electoral geography.

The question isn’t simply whether Democrats can keep winning. It’s whether Republicans have the leadership, organizations, candidates, and resources to stop Democrats.

Bergen and Union Republicans have struggled with dysfunction and repeated defeats. Atlantic is different. Republicans rebuilt their political strength and proved the party could still win key elections. But now, infighting threatens to undo that success.

This brings us back to Kellyanne Conway’s observation: “Republicans lose because they run the same campaign with the same consultants and get the same results.”

Perhaps it’s time for the NJGOP to heed Conway’s advice: run different campaigns, hire different consultants—and maybe, just maybe, achieve different results.

But can a party beset by organizational dysfunction, internal battles, and repeated defeats actually change?

That’s what we’ll examine in Part 2.