A couple of insiders sat in a bar on Monday night in Central Jersey, hashing over the gubernatorial primary in both parties. One was a Republican. The other a Democrat. The barkeep slopped another round.

Here were the questions at the center of the conversation: Who was going to win the Democratic Primary and who was going to win the Republican Primary?

First, the Democrats. The two insiders agreed that progressive passion seems to be concentrated in the direction of Ras Baraka and Steve Fulop. Baraka, they agreed, might be the only candidate on the Democratic side who trusts himself enough to speak in an improvisational way, resisting the need to stick a trapeze net under himself every time he utters a sentence. The son of a poet, the Newark Mayor doesn't do canned or at least struggles when he feels muzzled by party-speak. People like that. Fulop? He gets detailed on progressive issues. They like that, too. He's a policy nerd, and that carries a certain street cred with Dems.

Suddenly, as the insiders kicked around the candidates, an ad for Mikie Sherrill flashed over the bar.

The Democrat was quick to catch the name of the outfit paying for the ad.

It was the Middlesex County Democratic Committee.

"They get it," said the source, giving a nod to the screen, which came on in the middle of a hockey game. "They might be the only organization representing the establishment out there that understands the stakes of the election."

Middlesex Dems backed Sherrill and now want to put an exclamation point on it. In a mangled mess of a primary, on the heels of 2024 when Andy Kim blew up the organization lines, Middlesex has the blue Braveheart face paint on, as if the primary means something, and their candidate merits an all-in mentality.

Is it enough?

"I don't know," the Democrat said. "Too many D.C. types around Mikie [Sherrill]. They don't really know what's going on."

But Middlesex knows what's going on, was the implication. The Republican concurred. Middlesex, yes. Those lads over there refuse to be complacent. They backed a candidate and now, God dammit, they're going to throw some money around to prove the organization isn't a joke, no matter what the Andy Kim types out there say.

The Democrat at the bar looked at the Republican.

What about the GOP Primary?

Well, it's Jack Ciattarelli's to lose, of course.

But everyone's stepping gingerly around President Donald J. Trump. If Trump backs Ciattarelli, Ciattarelli walks into the nomination on June 10th, but if he backs Bill Spadea, it turns into the heartbreaking dogfight that Republicans have resisted to this point.

There's some tension. Some grinding angst.

Ultimately, Ciattarelli the former assemblyman, has crafted enough - or almost enough - of a ground game to pacify the establishment in both parties if he wriggles through the primary, the Democrat and the Republican agreed.

Ciattarelli has too much connectivity, and too refined an affordability message to resist Democrats cocooned in their respective agonies.  The only person who could handle him, and even conceivably present as the general election favorite, would be Sherrill, both the Democrat and the Republican agreed.

Would it be enough? To the extent that Trump flounders, Sherrill could sink Ciattatrelli with Trump. That was the word, clinked with glasses. It's out of everyone's hands, really. The general will size up the national scene, probably period, which means Trump's standing will determine the outcome.

That was the word on the barstools, at least right now, in Central Jersey.