Is Mikie Sherrill really leading the governor's race by 21 points?

That's what a Rutgers-Eagleton poll said last week. With "leaners" included, it had Sherrill topping Jack Ciattarelli by 56 to 35 percent, a rather large margin.

Ashley Koning, the poll director, sought to put things in perspective.

"Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment - not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now,” is how she described the poll. “A lot can happen between now and November, and we know this gap will very likely narrow in the next several months."

Nonetheless, "Jack's Team," quickly condemned the poll with some colorful language. That's to be expected.
While New Jersey is still a Democratic state, it's difficult to believe Sherrill is winning by 20-plus points.

Four years ago, Ciattarelli lost by about three.

However, it is true that there have been some good developments of late for New Jersey Democrats.

For months, Republicans have been trumpeting voter registration gains.

Democrats a few years ago had a 1.1 million registration lead over the GOP. That was unsustainable and Republicans had been gaining incrementally - month by month.

But then we had the primary.

With six Democrats in the race, the party saw a registration jump of about 82,000 leading up to the primary - double the Republican increase of about 41,000.

That just about wiped away some of the GOP's recent gains. The Democrats' registration lead is now almost 870,000 statewide.

Now we come to Donald Trump.

Democratic and liberal anger at the president was plainly evident during the No Kings rallies throughout the state in June. Some of these people may care not at all about state issues, but many of them do.. And they will vote for Sherrill as a way of "sending a message" to Trump. The "Big, Beautiful Bill" is only going to ratchet up Democratic anger.and perhaps enthusiasm.

The overall point here is that Democratic voters are energized and if their turnout is moderate to good, Ciattarelli is going to have a big challenge.

Some observers have wondered about unity.

Keep in mind that a majority of Democratic primary voters did not vote for Sherrill. What are they going to do in November?

The guess here is - vote for Mikie. It is hard to see all that many primary voting Democrats backing a man who embraces Trump's MAGA movement.

As noted, the Eagleton poll seems a bit suspect.

Nonetheless,  it found that Democrats in general are more supportive of Sherrill than Republicans are of Ciattarelli. The spread was 82 to 71 percent.

Don't discount that. Bill Spadea criticized and condemned Ciattarelli throughout the primary campaign.

Spadea didn't do all that well, but he retains a passionate following, some of whom are not sold on Jack.

Bottom line four months before the election:

There are positive signs for Sherrill, but a 21-point spread is - to be kind -a bit of a stretch.