VP Musings
Tim Kaine wasn’t the reason Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election.
Before you ponder if that’s right, you may need to recall who Kaine was. (It’s pronounced by the way just like New Jersey’s Tom Kean).
Kaine was – and is – a senator from Virginia and more to the point, was Clinton’s vice presidential runningmate.
This is relevant in light of the anticipation and general hoopla surrounding Kamala Harris’ selection this week of Tim Walz as her runningmate.
If you saw the event in Philadelphia, you saw an event that went on far too long. But that’s not the real story.
One understands the 24-hour news cycle, but even allowing for that, attention paid to vice presidential picks continues to be way overblown.
Walz is not going to determine if Harris wins the presidency.
Just like J.D. Vance is not going to determine if Donald Trump wins.
If one looks at relatively recent history, one exception to this blanket statement would be 1960 when VP pick Lyndon Johnson helped John Kennedy win Texas, which was a big prize.
In theory, it still is, but less so in practice because Texas has become a solidly “red” state.
Looking at some of the other VP picks – even those who attracted attention – their impact on the overall race was minimal.
Back in 1984, Walter Mondale caused quite a stir at the time when he picked Geraldine Ferraro of New York as his runningmate, She was, of course, the first women to be so honored, and as such, her selection drew an inordinate amount of attention.
Not that it mattered. The Mondale-Ferraro ticket was swamped by Ronald Reagan.
A few years later we had Dan Quayle.
He was a senator from Indiana who ran for VP in 1988 with George H.W. Bush. Quayle was quickly criticized because of his thin resume. And the jokes only increased when he compared himself to JFK in a debate and was famously ridiculed by the Dems’ vice presidential candidate, Lloyd Bentsen.
“Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy” was Bentsen’s now iconic line.
That exchange is still fun to watch, but Bush-Quayle had the last laugh; they easily won the 1988 race.
Quayle’s debate performance did not matter.
Next we come to Sarah Palin, who got a tremendous amount of positive response just after John McCain picked her as VP runningmate in 2008.
If nothing else, the Alaskan was different.
In the end, it meant little as the McCain ticket lost to Barack Obama.
We have highlighted just a few of the VP nominees over the last 60 years or so who attracted immediate attention.
There were also many figures – like maybe Kaine – who even those who follow politics may not remember.
One thinks of the likes of Sargent Shriver, Joe Lieberman and Jack Kemp. None of those helped their tickets win.
And in truth, despite all the media attention, just about no vice presidential candidate has a discernible impact on the election.
That’s why we have presidential candidates.
VP candidates don’t matter, except when they do. And in extremely close elections, they do indeed matter. In 2000, had Gore won NH — he lost it by a little over 1% — he would have won the election with 270 electoral votes, the bare majority needed (assuming the faithless DC elector fell in line) and FL would not have mattered. Had Gore chosen another VP candidate with ties to NH, it might have made the difference. Furthermore, had he chosen another VP candidate that did a better job of peeling votes from Ralph Nader he also may have been successful. And as for 2016, Clinton beat Trump in VA by a little over 5%. What if she hadn’t chosen Kaine but rather someone from the Rust Belt that would have perhaps resonated in PA, MI and WI.? Clinton lost these three states to Trump 6,632,812 to 6,600,564 (32,248) or 50.12 for Trump to 49.88 for Clinton. Given this, it could indeed be argued that Kaine cost Clinton the election. Of course, hindsight is always 20-20 but foresight by presidential candidates regarding VPs helps them avoid coming up short in a close election and spending the rest of their lives asking, “what if I had chosen someone else?”
With Walt’s Covid record of extended mandates , snitch hot lines, closures of small businesses and schools ( affecting mostly small mom and pop shops, the weak and disenfranchised communities) and the state with the greatest amount of COVID – excess money -fraudulent claims, I highly doubt he will secure the vote of those third party independent voters.
All in for RFK JR. who was censored ( a gross undemocratic manipulation of the first amendment by making up a new word -MALINFORMATION) for speaking the inconvenient truth about COVID . Four years later, FAUCI admits there was no scientific backing to the imposed rules of mask mandates and 6 feet of separation , “they just happened “ with full knowledge of its meaningless nature. Per the NJ Independent COVID-19 Report , New Jersey’s schools were closed the longest in the nation, unnecessarily. The damage caused by that decision was unprecedented ( again the weak and disenfranchised most affected)
So it is no wonder Randi Weingarten is gushing all over this folksy VP pick. Few politicians admit to being wrong and just go on their merry way assuming time will make us all forget.
EDIT: Walk
Additional the “sore loser” attempt to keep Kennedy off the NJ Ballot, failed. The law-fare being used to keep candidates from running for President is of great importance. But we rather be distracted with nonsensical issues.