JERSEY CITY - Some of the thinking regarding the race for mayor here has been who's going to come in second - second to Jim McGreevey, the former governor.

There are runoffs here, so that would mean McGreevey and the number two candidate - probably Bill O'Dea or James Solomon - would battle it out in an early December runoff election.

But a new poll by Team O'Dea strives to change that scenario.

The poll by Hart Research Group still has McGreevey in the lead with 23 percent of the vote. But that is down from previous samplings.

O'Dea and Solomon are tied for second with 20 percent each.

Mussab Ali is at 12 percent and Joyce Watterman is at 3 percent with 21 percent undecided.

Campaign polls can be unreliable, but if this one is accurate, it's big news. It suggests that McGreevey could possibly finish out of the top two and miss the runoff. After all, his margin over O'Dea and Solomon is just 3 points.

Here's the take of Phil Swibinski of the O'Dea campaign.

“Jersey City voters are breaking away from Jim McGreevey in huge numbers because of the numerous scandals and missteps that have defined his career. With McGreevey’s support falling off a cliff and James Solomon not gaining significant traction outside of his Downtown base, Bill O’Dea is in a position to not only make the runoff but finish in first place thanks to his clear record of getting things done for Jersey City residents and the strong grassroots campaign organization he has built over the past year which will be able to turn out our voters.”

It remains to be seen if O'Dea can live up to that rosy assessment, but the poll presents him with some good news.

In addition, Odea is scheduled to be endorsed Wednesday by the Uniformed Firefighters Association of Jersey City, IAFF Local 1066.