This morning’s results tell it all – the Coronavirus issue “Trumps” all other issues and has propelled Joe Biden to a landslide margin over Donald Trump. The ABC – Washington Post poll is the gold standard of all polls, rated A+ by Nate Silver year after year.
The following is the link to the results.
Keep in mind the following three numbers:
In the national head-to-head, Biden leads Trump, 55 to 40.
Trump’s overall job approval number has become mega-ugly. Specifically, his job approval rating has dropped sharply in the past two months and stands at 39 percent positive and 57 percent negative among voting-age adults, with 48 percent of Americans saying they strongly disapprove of the way he is doing his job.
On the Coronavirus issue, Trump’s approval numbers are also under water, with 38 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval.
There is as much chance of Trump winning this election as there is of the Dodgers moving back to Brooklyn.
Two major election questions remain:
- Will Trump drop out, given the facts that 1) he faces a humiliating defeat; and 2) he is essentially a coward and appears unable to face up to it? I discussed this possibility in a previous column:
As I stated therein, I am a political pundit, not a psychologist. So I cannot predict what he will do.
If he does withdraw, look for substitute GOP presidential nominee Mike Pence to select South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as his running mate.
- How will the widening Biden landslide affect the US Senate races?
In a previous column, I forecasted Democratic recapture of Senate control, with five likely pickups (Maine, Montana, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina) offsetting one loss. (Alabama), giving the Democrats a 51-49 majority:
I also described four other seats (Kentucky, South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa) within reach of the Democrats. As the Biden lead grows, possibilities here of Democratic pick-ups increase. You can also add the two Republican-held seats in Georgia to the Democrat target list.
Also, watch Republican Senate candidates, sparked by today’s Washington Post poll, start to run away from two inane features, to put it charitably, of Trump’s Coronavirus policy: his opposition to 1) mask mandates; and 2) increased federal funding for testing. Mitch McConnell has already put distance between himself and the Trump White House on both these issues.
There are two New Jersey impacts from the Trump/Republican meltdown, both of which I intend to describe in forthcoming columns:
- This past week’s Monmouth Poll shows that the odds against any Republican challenger defeating incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy in 2021 will almost certainly be prohibitive. Any Democrat who has taken on enthusiastically the Trump albatross, as has GOP State Chair Doug Steinhardt, is unelectable and doomed.
- Murphy will have another 2021 option. He will be on President Biden’s short list for Treasury Secretary.
The financing of major infrastructure will be the key to the Biden economic recovery program, and a Goldman Sachs veteran like Murphy will be precisely what Treasury needs: an investment banker who understands the interplay between bonding and taxation to finance major governmental projects.
If Murphy goes to Treasury and becomes the national star of infrastructure financing, he could become a very viable candidate for the White House in 2024.
For those members of the Trenton Press Corps who continue to obsessively focus on the possibility of Chris Christie as a future presidential candidate, I have a message: You’ve been looking at the wrong governor. The New Jersey governor with the most likely presidential future is Phillip Dunton Murphy.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.