What impact will the assassination of Charlie Kirk have on New Jersey's gubernatorial campaign?

It's an interesting query.

One is tempted to say, "nothing at all," given the fact the main issues in the state, broadly speaking, are property taxes, education and transportation. Kirk concentrated on national issues of both politics and culture.

Then again, we are already seeing political disagreement related to flying the flag at half-mast.

Jack DeLorenzo, the chair of the Bergen County Republican Organization, condemned the county's Democratic leaders for not lowering the flag.

In Madison, Nick Mangold, a former Jets' center, likewise criticized the borough for the same reason. And in Sparta, the mayor got into a verbal confrontation when he compared the reaction to Kirk's death with the many children killed in recent mass shootings. The underlying point was that the killing of school children did not provoke a similar public outcry, a legitimate argument to be sure.

We are also seeing calls to continue Kirk's work, which was, in fact, mentioned at a vigil last Friday night in Parsippany.

There also have been calls for retribution - some of which have come from the White House.

OK.

But will this affect the governor's race, or of more relevance, mean more votes for Jack Ciattarelli?  After all, those complaining about not lowering the flag, for instance, are likely Ciattarelli voters in the first place.

Wading into this subject is Patrick Allocco, of Zoose®, which he describes as "a tech company leveraging advanced AI and human-to-human solutions to solve real-time challenges. While Zoose remains focused on enhancing global communication and support, we also apply our AI-driven insights to critical areas like election analysis - bringing data-backed clarity to complex political landscapes."

To that end, Allocco presents a weekly column about the race. Here is a salient part of the latest instalment:

And yet as much as we want to say “violence has no place in our society,” the harder truth is that it does - and it ripples. The shooter may have wanted to silence Kirk, but the effect could very well be the opposite. His death may energize those who saw him as a defender of their values, and just as easily provoke his opponents.

That ripple can be felt right here in New Jersey. In a governor’s race where margins are thin and turnout is everything, moments like this can shift who shows up - and why.
Our modeling tells us something simple but profound: turnout is not just math. It is emotional math.
Hate motivates the extremes.
Hate hardens identities, fuels anger, and drives people to the polls to oppose or punish. We see it daily: a surge in anti-Semitic incidents amid the Israel-Gaza debate, and campus or street rhetoric that too often explodes into hostility. That kind of anger-driven turnout is one engine of politics.

That is a point worth watching to be sure. Let's see if Republican turnout increases when mail-in voting begins. The Dems have long been dominant in that field, although the GOP is doing better with early voting at the polls.

Also, will Ciattarelli  find a way to mention Kirk on the campaign trail, or at Sunday's debate? He probably will, but in what context? A broad condemnation of political violence, or will he emulate Donald Trump and blame "the left?"

Even then, the real impact may not be apparent.

It is hard to compare eras, or in this case, different elections, but let's do it anyway.

Some 24 years ago, the Sept. 11 terrorist attack also occurred in the middle of a New Jersey governor's race - Jim McGreevey and Bret Schundler.

I recall discussing that race just around this time of year with a GOP legislator who will remain nameless. The legislator was optimistic about Schundler, arguing that 9/11 had changed the landscape.

Now that the nation - and in many ways, New Jersey - had been attacked, voters were yearning for a strong leader, a strong defense and a lessening of concern for civil liberties in the name of fighting the "bad guys."

And that would push them into the Republican column. So the lawmaker said.

McGreevey won with 56 percent of the vote. How his tenure as governor unfolded, notwithstanding, the 9/11 attacks had no impact on the race in New Jersey.

Something to keep in mind.