Politics is a messy business but campaigning prepares you for governing . It prepares you to get hit , stand strong, and, if necessary, hit back.
The campaign for President is ablaze and so much has happened in the last two weeks, all of it to Joe Biden’s benefit. But it means nothing if the Biden Campaign does not fully exploit every opportunity to win each day and, if not, to get up and win the next day. There must be an unprecedented relentlessness to crush it on November 3rd. The country waits for deliverance from this madness.
Political campaigns are a kind of warfare and no qualities are more important than buoyancy, optimism, and resiliency. Every single day contains the elements of victory … and those charged with responsibility must be aware and maintain their poise and dexterity to score and score again.
Trump and Biden have been locked in a state of static balance now for several weeks. That has to change …. sooner or later, things move.
Biden’s September advantage is solid when compared to Hillary of 2016. His overall national lead is above 8 points; hers was rarely more than 3. His battleground edge hovers around 4; Hillary rarely had much daylight. Biden is challenging in Florida, Texas, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio. No Blue states from 2016 are vulnerable.
And yet Biden’s advantage feels tenuous, suspect , to many Democrats; no doubt a hangover from 2016. This temerity must be vanquished. You can’t win running scared.
It is Trump who is in deep trouble.
As President of the United States, Trump relies on racist/ethnic/religious demagoguery to poison or frighten Americans. This is an abomination and will result in a reckoning. It would be unthinkable for a President to act this way but unfortunately it is not.
Trump is under siege. An incumbent President rarely loses. He’s floundering; fond of lying, carnage, and dystopia. He’s not a leader.
Trump is underwater in favorability; 54.5 % of voters disapprove. Incumbent Presidents need to be above water.
Trump has little room to grow . Only 5-7% are undecided. He’d have to get them all.
Trump’s message is so repulsive that at this late stage he is highly unlikely to scare enough voters to him.
He is more likely to alienate them.
There are no significant ” third party” candidates, unlike 2016.
The Democrats are united and chomping at the bit to vote, unlike 2016.
The military and veteran vote is shifting. The Atlantic story revealed that Trump called military men and women who died for their country “losers and suckers” in past and current wars. It would be unthinkable for a President to say this but unfortunately it is not. Before the Atlantic story “losers and suckers”, and before Trump’s recent attack on the Pentagon, more than half military registered negative on Trump . Biden was leading 43% – 37%. In contrast, in 2016 Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 2-1 margin among military and veterans. This is a massive vote swing.
And, of late, thanks to Trump’s unfathomable arrogance, he tells Bob Woodward, of all people , that he’s lied about Covid 19 to the American people all along, playing it down for political advantage; that he knew it was a powerful contagion. It would be unthinkable for a President to do this but unfortunately it is not.
The first Presidential Debate is September 29th in Cleveland at Case Western Reserve University.
Joe Biden will be ready.
Bernard Kenny of Hoboken is the former Senator from the 33rd Legislative District.