Emerson Poll: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden

 

 

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill state polls find former President Donald Trump with a slight edge on President Joe Biden in Arizona (47% to 43%), Georgia (45% to 41%), Wisconsin (47% to 44%) Nevada (46% to 43%),  Pennsylvania (47% to 45%), and Michigan (46% to 45%), while Biden splits with Trump in Minnesota (45% to 45%).

 

“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”

“Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April,” Kimball said. “In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”

While Biden trails Trump, the Democratic Senate candidate leads the Republican candidate in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Democratic Senate candidates outperform Biden by two in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three in Minnesota, and seven in Nevada.

  • AZ: Ruben Gallego (D) 45%, Kari Lake (R) 41%, 14% undecided
  • MN: Amy Klobuchar (D) 48%, Royce White (R) 37%, 11% undecided
  • MI: Elissa Slotkin (D) 43%, Mike Rogers (R) 39%, 18% undecided
  • NV: Jacky Rosen (D) 50%, Sam Brown (R) 38%, 13% undecided
  • PA: Bob Casey (D) 47%, David McCormick (R) 41%, 12% undecided
  • WI: Tammy Baldwin (D) 46%, Eric Hovde (R) 44%, 10% undecided

Biden State Approval

  • AZ: 36% approve, 54% disapprove, 10% neutral
  • GA: 35% approve, 54% disapprove, 11% neutral
  • MI: 39% approve, 52% disapprove, 10% neutral
  • MN: 38% approve, 51% disapprove, 11% neutral
  • NV: 38% approve, 54% disapprove, 9% neutral
  • PA: 39% approve, 53% disapprove, 8% neutral

Gubernatorial State Approval

  • AZ: Katie Hobbs (D) 36% approve, 43% disapprove, 22% neutral
  • GA: Brian Kemp (R) 49% approve, 28% disapprove, 23% neutral
  • MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49% approve, 40% disapprove, 11% neutral
  • MN: Tim Walz (D) 45% approve, 42% disapprove, 13% neutral
  • NV: Joe Lombardo (R) 37% approve, 30% disapprove, 33% neutral
  • PA: Josh Shapiro (D) 49% approve, 29% disapprove, 22% neutral

State Issues

Voters in Arizona and Nevada were asked if they would vote “yes” or “no” on a potential ballot measure to establish the constitutional right to abortion in their state. In Arizona, 56% would vote “yes,” 26% would vote “no,” and 18% are not sure yet. In Nevada, 58% would vote “yes,” 20% “no,” and 21% are not sure yet.

  • Women in Arizona would vote “yes” 61% to 23%; men support the measure 50% to 29%.
  • Women in Nevada support the measure 52% to 17%; men support 54% to 25%.

Regarding a ballot measure in Arizona that allowed for state and local police to arrest noncitizens who cross the border unlawfully, and allow state judges to order deportations, 55% would vote “yes,” 29% “no,” and 16% are not sure.

The most important issue for each state remains the economy: 45% consider it to be the top issue in Georgia, 41% in Michigan, 34% in Minnesota, 35% in Nevada, 44% in Pennsylvania, and 42% in Wisconsin. However, in Arizona voters are split between the economy (27%) and immigration (26%).

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