It was about five weeks ago that an Emerson Poll showed a tie race between Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill - 43 points each.

That poll made news - simply because earlier polls had given Sherrill an average lead of 7 to 8 points.

Now we have a new Emerson Poll and Sherrill is leading by 2 points - 50 to 48. The math of this poll suggests there aren't all that many undecideds out there.

So, Team Mikie could be relieved that in this poll, their candidate's standing improved by 2 points.

Another poll out today by Suffolk University has Sherrill up by 4 points.

The larger issue here - and one being talked about nationally - is, why is this race so close?

Here are some guesses - Phil Murphy fatigue. Ciattarelli is a good campaigner. Sherrill talks too much about Donald Trump.

None of the above is about to change over the next five days.

Murphy still will be governor.

Ciattarelli still will be going "up and down the state," as he likes to say.

And you can expect Barack Obama, who will campaign for Sherrill on Saturday, to talk about Trump.

What is more interesting - and maybe more meaningful - are actual votes. On that, we have some data.

Democrats always dominate mail-in voting, and despite Republican pleas, that is not changing.

VoteHub, an elections researcher, reports that as of Thursday, registered Democrats have returned about 333,000 mail-in ballots compared to about 112,000 for Republicans.

As for in-person early voting, Democrats are also leading, but it is much closer.

The figures show that 156,432 Democrats have visited polling places so far this year compared to 149,130 Republicans.

The campaigns are saying what you'd expect them to say.

Democrats are talking about momentum.

Ciattarelli during a stop in Mercer County the other night said his campaign is where it wants to be. He also suggested that some registered Democrats may be voting for him.

Speaking of Trump, when the president took part in a tele-rally for Ciattarelli last Friday, he said he would campaign for Jack when he returned from his trip to Asia. Trump is back Thursday, so we will see how that turns out.

The guess here is that it doesn't happen. Why would Ciattarelli reinforce Sherrill's point that he is too tied to Trump?