Who's going to win the primaries for governor?

Here's a quick snapshot of how the leading candidates can win - and lose.

First, the Dems in alphabetical order.

Ras Baraka: 

He will win by driving a large turnout of minority voters - and by winning the majority of support from left-leaning groups. Some of his supporters will need to ignore the wisdom of some that the Newark mayor is too radical to win in November. For what it is worth, many Republicans hope Baraka is the Democratic nominee.

Baraka will lose if turnout in such places as Newark is - as usual - light. He will also be in trouble if more liberal voters gravitate to Steve Fulop.

Steve Fulop:

Do policy wonks swing elections? To win, Fulop has to hope so. He began drafting detailed positions on such key issues as education, transportation and public safety two years ago. They are on his website. If that's your thing, Fulop is your guy.

He will lose if the bulk of voters show an indifference to actual state issues. Fulop will also lose if county political organizations retain some power to turn out large blocs of voters when they no longer have a ballot advantage without a county line.

Josh Gottheimer:

He will win if there is a big turnout in his home county of Bergen, the largest in the state. He will also get a boost if voters truly believe he can reduce both income and property taxes.

Gottheimer will lose for one reason - a perception among primary voters that he is not liberal enough to represent Democrats this fall.

Mikie Sherrill:

She will win for an obvious reason - she's ahead in the polls. And she is ahead, because of a great resume, a good record in the House and support from much of the Democratic establishment. She is also the only woman in the race.

Sherrill will lose if enough voters see her campaign as long on generalities, but short on specifics. There may also be some who think she will better serve the state by staying in the House.

Sean Spiller:

Spiller, the teachers' union president, may still be an unknown. He wasn't in any of the debates, because he did not raise enough money, relying instead on the coffers of the New Jersey Education Association. He will win if the NJEA uses its acclaimed power to get its members to back Spiller.

He will lose if enough Dem voters analyze things this way: "I generally like unions, butI I do not want the teachers' union head as governor. Talk about a conflict of interest."

Steve Sweeney:

Are there still enough blue-collar Democrats out there? Sweeney, an iron worker by trade, will win if he can get enough union support at the polls, assuming it still exists among Democrats.

He will lose for a simple reason, South Jersey simply does not produce enough votes.

* * *

And now the Republicans.

Jon Bramnick: 

He will win if a monumental upset takes place. And if a majority of GOP voters back the man who probably has a very good chance to win the general election.

Bramnick will lose if GOP voters perceive him as not conservative enough and a "Never Trumper" to boot.

Jack Ciattarelli:

He will win because this is the third time he is running and Republicans know him. In fact, Ciattarelli never stopped running following his loss to Phil Murphy in 2021.

Ciattarelli will lose if a majority of voters see his conversion to MAGA as a move of convenience and not one of principle. See below.

Bill Spadea:

He will win if despite Donald Trump's endorsement, right wing voters see Spadea as the most MAGA candidate in the race. He does have some hope here. Keep in mind the U.S. Senate candidate Trump endorsed last year lost the primary.

Spadea will lose if enough voters ignore everything else and just vote for the more familiar name and the guy Trump wants.