Volatility.

It's one of those words that can cause a streak of panic to run down the spine of anyone in public office.

One thing is to be aware of a well-ordered parade that one needs to jump in front of in order to remain politically cool or relevant.

It's quite another to try to manage chaos.

Especially ahead of an election year.

So, the establishment right now is in full-blown stability mode.

"Nothing's gonna change," a source deadpanned.

But that's not precisely what they're saying in Hudson County, where a Democratic Primary in LD-31 (incumbent Senator Angela McKnight versus Assemblyman Jerry Walker) promises to unleash Hudson havoc.

Certainly, the contest will test the power of the Hudson County Democratic Organization (HCDO), which will be with Walker. Don't forget, HCDO Chair Craig Guy will be on the ballot next year - and motivated - as he seeks his own reelection to the county executive seat. McKnight trusts in her neighborhood street cred to take on - and down - the machine, in this unpredictable environment, where party organization people will run next year without the ballot fortification of the county lines.

So, there's a heavy gamble on in Hudson next year, or right now, in preparation for next year.

"If you put me in front of a firing squad, I wouldn't know who to support," a befuddled source told InsiderNJ, when confronted with McKnight versus Walker.

The same source described the contest as the most complicated district race in some time, which contains residue from the 2025 gubernatorial primary, when the HCDO backed Mikie Sherrill and McKnight supported Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop.

But it's not like McKnight doesn't have strong connective tissue throughout the district - and Trenton.

She does.

And then it's not like Walker is a machine guy only.

So, yes, it's complex.

More later.

Insiders expect some other contests to erupt too, not just in Mercer County. Will state Senator James Beach (D-6) run again? If he doesn't, would Assembly Majority Leader Lou Greenwald (D-6) go after the senate seat at long last?

He wouldn't if there were a serious shakeup in the Assembly.

He wouldn't, for example, if sitting Speaker Craig Coughlin (D-19) didn't run again.

Because then Greenwald would run for speaker.

There's only one problem with that scenario, though.

Coughlin's running for reelection.

Take that to the bank, said a Middlesex source.

If he didn't, it wouldn't necessarily mean all hell would break loose. It would probably be because he would want to retire and Middlesex would set its sights on the senate presidency and someone like Senator Vin Gopal, Joe Cryan, Joe Vitale, or Andrew Zwicker to replace sitting Senate President Nick Scuari.

But amid all the gossip and rumors, the county party organizations seem to be sticking with the leadership structure that now exists: Scutari (despite some headbutting with the front office) as senate prez and Coughlin (an easy guy to get along with) as speaker.

"Christ, don't rock the boat," a party guy told InsiderNJ.

Don't add internal combustion to the gale force winds out there.

But does Sherrill really want to hang out with these guys?

That's the question.

Or a question.

And if indeed the electorate is volatile, does she really want to be bothered with maintaining relationships here if she can pole vault to the White House?

Well, U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) is running, and that means a portion (at least) of the state political apparatus would stand with him, splitting her home state support right out of the gate. There's talk of Sherrill taking a stab at vice president, maybe on a ticket with someone like U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA.) or AG, or secretary of defense.

To avoid getting stuck in the swamp.

[She] doesn't want to get stuck here.

"Unless you live here," Newark Mayor Ras Baraka cracked last week on a political panel in Paterson hosted by state Senator Benjie Wimberly (D-35).

So, everyone's watching Prez 2028, too, within the prism of the developing 2027 primary season.

"South Carolina helps him," a source tried to argue in reference to Booker, before losing interest in New Jersey as a presidential player and changing the subject.

What about Sherrill?

"...Not to say she doesn't have a chance," said the source, who went on to complain about the appearance of New Jersey culture in the DMV debacle and the LG implosion.  "To clean up means you f'd up,' the source said, with some reluctance.

But back to Hudson.

More than a few sources said the field might not just include McKnight and Walker.

Does a charged-up anti-incumbent progressive like Mussab Ali (defeated by U.S. Rep. Rob Menendez in the LD-8 Primary) leap into the contest?

Unknown.

Does the HCDO back Assemblyman Will Samson?

Undetermined.

Sticking with Hudson...

Will the HCDO back incumbent Senator Raj Mukherji (D-32)?

Yes.

Will there may be volatility?

Yes.

Assemblyman Larry Wainstein is said to be examining a mayoral candidacy in North Bergen.

And so on.

Posed with a question about South Jersey rising again, a North Jersey source strenuously objected.

"Those guys win a race down there - after how many years? - and now they think they can compete statewide again?" the party leader fumed behind the scenes. "I don't even know the name of the guy who won down there."

Mullock.

Sack Mullock.

"I DON'T CARE!"

It went like that.

There was some talk about state Senator Mike Testa (R-1) pawing at the turf for the congressional seat newly lost to Mullock by U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-2).

No, no, another source insisted.

Testa will run for governor.

Take that to the bank, the source added.

Look for Cape May GOP Chairman Mike Donohue to run for the CD-2 seat.

Or for Van Drew to try to make a 2028 comeback in a presidential election year.

And all of this was parlor room speculation of an establishment variety, without including the "public appetite for change" volatility - there's that word again - posed by an angry electorate saddled with unaffordability and economic instability, perhaps coming at the Democratic Majority from the left and carrying the additional grievances of AI, data centers and general New Jersey dysfunction.

It was volatile upon volatile within the inevitability of volatility.

But "Nothing's really gonna change," insisted a powerful party organization source.