“The data shows what we’ve been hearing on the ground for months — voters are fired up and excited for Mikie’s bold leadership and vision. Mikie heads into the final stretch of this race as the clear frontrunner, and she’s ready to bring this home, make Jack a three-time loser, and get to work driving down costs for New Jerseyans,” said Mikie Sherrill for Governor Campaign Manager Alex Ball.

Take a look for yourself:

Across all 21 counties, Democrats have strong momentum that continues to grow:

• As of Monday, Mikie and Democrats now have a firewall of over 201,000 votes heading into the final stretch.
• Democrats are on the path to a higher firewall margin against Republicans compared to 2021.

The vote-by-mail firewall is strong:

• As of Monday, Democrats have a vote-by-mail firewall of more than 195,800. 
• Compared to that day in 2021, Democrats had a vote-by-mail firewall of 167,000.

In all 21 counties, Democrats are excited to make their voices heard and are utilizing early in-person voting:

• On day one, Democrats had a margin of 2,671 early in-person votes against Republicans.
• With day two data in, Democrats now have a combined raw margin of more than 5,300 early in-person votes cast. 
• Democrats have nearly doubled our raw early in-person vote margin.

Every single county in the state is seeing a net increase in the percentage of Democratic early votes cast compared to this time in 2024:

• Republicans have seen net decreases in the percentage of early vote in Cumberland, Hudson, Mercer, and Sussex counties.
• In all 21 counties, there is a net increase in the percentage of Democratic early votes cast compared to 2024.

Democrats are activated and energized to elect Mikie Sherrill:

• As of day two of early voting in 2024, the Democrat advantage over Republicans of all early in-person voting cast was about 1.13%.
• As of day two of early voting in 2025, the Democrat advantage over Republicans of all early in-person voting cast is 3.28% – nearly triple the advantage compared to 2024. 

Even infrequent Democrat voters are making their voices heard:

• Democrats are driving out more infrequent voters who did not vote in the last four general elections (2021 - 2024) than Republicans by nearly a 2:1 margin.

New Jersey women are fired up to get Mikie elected:

• Nearly 60% of Democrats who have voted are women, while nearly 55% of the entire electorate is women, with Democrats driving that number up each day.

Jack has made it clear that he doesn’t care about Black and Latino communities, and it’s showing as Black and Latino voters are barely turning out for Republicans:

• As of day two of early voting in 2025, only 1% of the Republican electorate is Black voters, while 10% of the Democratic electorate is Black voters.
• As of day two of early voting in 2025, only 5% of the Republican electorate are Latino voters, while 10% of the Democratic electorate is Latino voters.

We know Republicans need turnout in Monmouth and Ocean County, but Republicans just aren’t excited about Jack. Democrats are holding their own, even in the early vote numbers here as well:

• Ocean County has the highest Democratic to Republican vote-by-mail return rate margin: Ocean Democrats are returning their ballots at a rate of 7.56% higher than Republicans.
• Monmouth County is also performing strongly: Monmouth Democrats are returning their ballots at a rate of 3.35% higher than Republicans.

And that’s not all. Democrats in some of the most Republican counties in the state are fired up to vote for Mikie Sherrill: 

• Cape May County: Democrats are returning their ballots at a rate of 3.64% higher than Republicans.
• Sussex County: Democrats are returning their ballots at a rate of 3.49% higher than Republicans.
• Hunterdon County: Democrats are returning their ballots at a rate of 3.21% higher than Republicans.
• Warren County: Democrats are returning their ballots at a rate of 1.49% higher than Republicans.

Here’s the bottom line: The momentum only continues to grow. With each update, Democrats are growing their raw margins against Republicans ahead of Election Day.