Comments from Monmouth University Poll director Patrick Murray on a potential Mike Bloomberg candidacy:

“The vast majority of Democratic voters are satisfied with the field of candidates they already have to pick from.  It is true that 1-in-5 moderates would like to see someone else in the running, which is twice the number of liberals who feel that way. However, it is not clear the Bloomberg is the candidate who will win them over.  He was getting less than 5% in the primary question and had a divided favorability rating when we included him in our polling at the beginning of the year.”

                (*See specific poll references below)

–How does a late entry, if it occurs, affect Bloomberg’s chances?

“Bloomberg would have to go on a major spending streak in the early states, a la Tom Steyer, and hope that there are enough polls between now and early December for him to qualify for that debate. That will give him a national stage, but he will not be able to catch up organizationally in the early states. And early state wins drive the national narrative.”

–Is there a late entry who could win over the moderates?

“Pundits tend to put way too much emphasis on the primacy of political ideology in voter decision making.  Yes, that plays a role, but personal appeal and the sense that the candidate understands your day to day concerns can be a more significant factor.  Many moderate voters are African-American, Latino, and working class.   Anyone who appeals to this group and is even just a hair to the right of Sanders and Warren could fit the bill.  But the field already has those candidates available.  Few Democratic voters are looking for a fresh face to enter the field at this point.”

–Do you expect any additional late entries and what would be the impact?

“It is extremely difficult for someone to get in now if they don’t have significant star power among Democratic voters. Short of Michelle Obama, I can’t think of any late entrant who could make a dent other than to hurt one of the existing front runners.  Bloomberg could end up hurting Biden but actually helping Sanders or Warren nab the nomination.”