Dem Has 20-Pt Likely Voter Lead In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Huge Gender Gap As Women Back Murphy By 36 Points
| October 25, 2017 – Dem Has 20-Pt Likely Voter Lead In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Huge Gender Gap As Women Back Murphy By 36 Points |  |
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A huge lead among women propels Democrat Phil Murphy to a 57 – 37 percent lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno among likely voters in the race for New Jersey governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 58 – 33 percent Murphy lead over Guadagno, in a September 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In today’s result, women back the Democrat 65 – 29 percent while men are divided with 49 percent for Murphy and 45 percent for Guadagno.
Murphy leads 92 – 4 percent among Democrats and 52 – 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans go to Guadagno 89 – 8 percent.
With 13 days until the election, 83 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 14 percent say they might change their mind.
Murphy gets a 44 – 34 percent favorability rating among likely voters, compared to Guadagno’s negative 33 – 41 percent favorability.
Taxes are the most important issue in deciding how they will vote in the governor’s race, 36 percent of likely voters say, while 14 percent list the economy. Another 11 percent cite health care and 9 percent say education.
“Lt. Gov. Guadagno could not be in a worse situation. Phil Murphy leads her among most voter groups and the state’s electorate gives her an unfavorable rating overall,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“What’s more, politics is a team game. Guadagno’s GOP teammates – President Donald Trump, with a 33 percent job approval rating, and Gov. Christopher Christie, with his 15 percent approval rating – are clearly pulling her down.”
“The way Republicans occasionally win in blue states such as New Jersey is by attracting some soft Democrats and dominating among independent voters. But only 4 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Guadagno, compared to 8 percent of Republicans backing Murphy. And his double-digit lead among independent voters makes it difficult to find a realistic path to a Guadagno victory.”
Guadagno’s role as lieutenant governor to Gov. Christopher Christie is heavier baggage than Murphy’s work at Goldman Sachs, New Jersey likely voters say.
For 51 percent of these voters, Guadagno’s role as lieutenant governor to Gov. Christopher Christie has a negative impact on their opinion of her. Another 10 percent say it has a positive impact and 37 percent say it doesn’t matter.
Murphy’s 23 years at Goldman Sachs creates a negative impact on the opinion of 30 percent of likely voters. For 6 percent, it has a positive impact and 61 percent say it doesn’t matter.
President Trump, Gov. Christie Approval Ratings
New Jersey likely voters disapprove 65 – 33 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans approve 80 – 19 percent and white voters with no college degree are divided, as 47 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove. Every other party, gender, education and racial group disapproves by wide margins.
Gov. Christie’s historic low approval ratings continue, a negative 15 – 80 percent today. Even Republican likely voters disapprove 57 – 37 percent.
Voters disapprove 49 – 31 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez is doing and say 59 – 19 percent that he does not deserve to be reelected next year.
New Jersey likely voters approve 61 – 32 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Cory Booker is doing.
From October 19 – 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,049 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Phil Murphy the Democrat and Kim Guadagno the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Phil Murphy the Democrat or Kim Guadagno the Republican?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Murphy 57% 8% 92% 52% 49% 65% 58% 44%
Guadagno 37 89 4 39 45 29 38 51
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 2 - 3
DK/NA 5 1 4 6 5 5 4 3
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Murphy 46% 57% 52% 71%
Guadagno 51 38 44 20
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1
DK/NA 3 4 4 8
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................
CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.................
CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
Tot Murphy Guadagno
Made up 83% 82% 86%
Might change 14 14 13
DK/NA 3 4 1
2. Is your opinion of Phil Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Favorable 44% 7% 71% 40% 41% 48% 47% 31%
Unfavorable 34 77 6 38 39 29 36 47
Hvn't hrd enough 20 15 22 18 19 20 15 20
REFUSED 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 2
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Favorable 37% 44% 40% 54%
Unfavorable 48 35 41 17
Hvn't hrd enough 14 19 17 26
REFUSED 1 2 2 3
3. Is your opinion of Kim Guadagno favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Favorable 33% 80% 8% 33% 41% 27% 34% 46%
Unfavorable 41 8 60 44 37 46 49 35
Hvn't hrd enough 23 11 30 19 20 26 15 17
REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Favorable 44% 34% 39% 20%
Unfavorable 40 46 43 40
Hvn't hrd enough 14 18 16 38
REFUSED 2 2 2 2
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 15% 37% 2% 16% 19% 11% 17% 19%
Disapprove 80 57 96 78 77 83 79 77
DK/NA 5 6 2 5 4 6 4 4
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 22% 14% 18% 9%
Disapprove 75 81 78 85
DK/NA 3 5 4 6
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 61% 23% 90% 56% 52% 69% 58% 53%
Disapprove 32 72 4 33 40 24 36 40
DK/NA 8 5 6 10 8 7 6 7
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 50% 62% 56% 74%
Disapprove 45 31 38 17
DK/NA 6 7 6 9
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 31% 11% 45% 28% 31% 31% 30% 21%
Disapprove 49 81 27 53 54 44 54 61
DK/NA 20 8 28 19 15 25 17 17
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 25% 27% 26% 41%
Disapprove 63 52 57 33
DK/NA 13 21 17 26
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 33% 80% 3% 36% 39% 27% 33% 47%
Disapprove 65 19 96 60 58 70 64 52
DK/NA 2 1 1 4 3 2 3 1
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 44% 35% 39% 19%
Disapprove 54 63 59 80
DK/NA 2 2 2 2
8. Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Yes/Deserves 19% 8% 29% 16% 21% 18% 19% 16%
No/Does not 59 87 42 60 62 57 60 67
DK/NA 22 5 29 24 18 25 20 17
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Yes/Deserves 16% 19% 18% 23%
No/Does not 70 57 63 51
DK/NA 14 24 19 26
9. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Very satisfied 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2%
Smwht satisfied 28 35 25 27 32 24 26 30
Smwht dissatisfied 39 38 41 35 38 39 44 35
Very dissatisfied 31 25 30 35 27 34 30 33
DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 1 - -
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Very satisfied 2% 1% 1% 2%
Smwht satisfied 31 24 28 31
Smwht dissatisfied 38 41 40 35
Very dissatisfied 29 33 31 30
DK/NA - 1 - 2
10. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, the budget, health care, race relations, the environment, gun policy, or ethics in government?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Taxes 36% 53% 26% 35% 39% 32% 33% 43%
Economy 14 17 11 16 18 11 15 14
Education 9 2 12 12 8 11 12 3
Budget 6 9 5 7 7 6 8 7
Health care 11 4 16 8 7 15 7 12
Race relations 3 - 3 4 2 3 2 1
Environment 3 - 5 3 3 3 6 2
Gun policy 5 3 9 1 4 6 3 5
Ethics in government 9 10 10 9 10 8 11 9
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 1 2 1
DK/NA 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 2
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Taxes 40% 36% 38% 29%
Economy 16 13 14 15
Education 7 9 8 11
Budget 8 8 8 3
Health care 6 11 9 14
Race relations 2 1 1 6
Environment 4 5 4 2
Gun policy 4 4 4 9
Ethics in government 12 9 10 8
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1
DK/NA 1 3 2 2
11. As you may know, Phil Murphy worked for Goldman Sachs for 23 years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Positive 6% 7% 9% 3% 8% 5% 5% 4%
Negative 30 31 27 32 35 26 31 33
No impact 61 61 61 63 56 65 63 61
DK/NA 3 2 3 2 1 4 1 3
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Positive 4% 5% 5% 9%
Negative 38 26 32 27
No impact 57 66 62 59
DK/NA - 3 2 5
12. As you may know, Kim Guadagno has been Chris Christie’s lieutenant governor for about eight years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Positive 10% 26% 4% 10% 14% 7% 9% 12%
Negative 51 16 75 50 45 57 56 40
No impact 37 58 20 39 40 34 34 45
DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 - 3
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht NonWht
Positive 14% 8% 11% 11%
Negative 46 52 49 56
No impact 39 39 39 31
DK/NA 1 1 1 2
