Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Public Cautiously Optimistic for Murphy

Garden State Divided Over Whether to Defy Or Follow Trump Policies

No Traction for Trump in New Jersey

Fairleigh Dickinson University, January 30, 2018 – The FDU Poll finds Governor Phil Murphy beginning his administration with an approval rating of 35 percent. Although this is a significant improvement over public support for the outgoing Christie administration, Murphy’s numbers are considerably lower than for his past two predecessors when they began their terms in office.

Among adults in New Jersey, around a third (35%) say they approve of the job he’s doing in office so far, with a fifth (21%) who disapprove and a plurality (40%) who don’t know enough to register a response. As expected, support for Murphy splits along party lines. Half (55%) of Democrats support him as compared with nine percent of Republicans. Independents are largely undecided (49%). Christie left office with an approval rating of 17 percent.

“At this point, support, or lack thereof, for Murphy is more of a gut reaction. However, it’s notable that Murphy fares worse in the so-called ‘honeymoon period’ than Christie and Jon Corzine,” said Krista Jenkins, director of the FDU Poll and a professor of political science.

In January 2010, when Chris Christie began his two terms in office, 48 percent approved with 31 percent who disapproved. Jon Corzine had the support of 47 percent in March 2006 with a 16 disapproval rating.

More telling about what the public thinks of Murphy are the words they use when asked to describe him. Survey respondents were asked what comes to mind when they think of Phil Murphy. Many of the most frequently offered words range from neutral and descriptive to a willingness to give him a chance. His campaign promise to legalize recreational marijuana in the state is closely associated with him in residents’ minds. “Marijuana” was offered frequently by respondents. Taxes also stands out for their close association some have with the new governor.

The incoming Murphy administration appears to be giving the public some hope for the health of the state. Back in October, barely a fifth (18%) said the state was headed in the right direction. Today, with Murphy at the helm, double that number believes the state is on solid footing (39%).

“This is good news for Murphy. Since nothing has really happened to explain why more today believe the state is headed in the right direction, it looks like a new administration is a big part of why. But right direction/wrong track is still upside down. There’s a lot of work to be done in the state to restore the public’s faith that leaders are making the right choices for New Jersey,” said Jenkins.

With some states taking a stand against Trump policies, respondents were asked what state leaders should do if they believe federal laws are a bad idea. Should all laws be implemented as instructed, or should state leaders defy the feds and not enact federal laws for which they disagree? On this question, Garden Staters are decidedly on the side of not going against federal laws. Half (49%) say all federal laws should be implemented, regardless of what state leaders think, with a third (37%) who say state leaders should act in defiance. Support for implementation is strongest among Republicans (73%) with half of independents (50%) and 35 percent of Democrats who endorse the same.

“Democrats reign in New Jersey. As much as the public seems to favor Democratic leadership, there’s a limit to their tolerance for state leaders taking a stand against Trump policies,” said Jenkins.

President Trump

Turning to the president, he remains largely unpopular across the Garden State, with 60 percent who disapprove as compared with 31 percent who approve. He remains under water with New Jersey residents, and his approval rating doesn’t appear to be budging. Women reject the president by a more than two-to-one ratio (25% approve, 66% disapprove) with men slightly more supportive (37% approve, 53% disapprove).

Garden Staters also remain pessimistic about the health of the country. More are concerned (58%) than are content (33%). Partisan views are split, with independents about evenly divided between those who say things are going well (40%) versus those who think otherwise (47%).

“It’s interesting that both Murphy and Trump – two polar opposites politically – are neighbors when it comes to public approval in New Jersey. Murphy’s right side up with the public, while Trump is upside down, but both men are getting about a third the public to say good things about them. Trump’s numbers are fairly fixed, as few are unable to assess the president, but the jury remains out for many when it comes to Murphy, even though he just came off an expensive gubernatorial election,” said Jenkins.

Methodology – The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone January 24-28, 2018 among a random sample of 810 adults in New Jersey. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect.

Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), que48stion wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Key Research of Provo, Utah with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, and race. 426 interviews were conducted on landlines and 384 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

The FDU Poll received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. The FDU Poll’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F. The FDU Poll was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.

Tables

Question wording and order

US1.    First, do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK

9          Refused (vol)

*Respondents were registered voters with a known history of voting in past elections

US2.     In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track [rotate]?

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK

9          Refused (vol)

*Respondents were registered voters with a known history of voting in past elections

NJ1.     And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the job Phil Murphy is doing as governor?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK  (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

NJ2.     In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track [rotate]?

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK

9          Refused (vol)

NJ3      Using one word only, what comes to mind when you think of Governor Murphy?

Open-ended

99        Don’t know/refused (vol)

NJ4      In your opinion, should states, including New Jersey, be allowed to ignore federal laws if state leaders don’t agree with the federal government, or should states implement all federal laws regardless of what state leaders think?[Rotated version: In your opinion should states, including New Jersey, enact all federal laws regardless of what state leaders believe, OR should states be allowed to defy federal laws if state leaders don’t agree with the federal government?]

1          IGNORE federal laws

2          IMPLEMENT all federal laws

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

Sample characteristics

Male                49%

Female             51%

Democrat (with leaners)            51%

Republican (with leaners)         30%

Independent                             15%

18-34               27%

35-59               43%

60+                  29%

White                           64%

African-American        13%

Latino                          15%

Asian                           5%

Other/refused               3%