FLORIDA: BIDEN MAINTAINS LEAD

Support falls for minimum wage and primary election ballot measures

West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a lead of 4 to 6 points over Donald Trump in Florida, based on different likely voter models in the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. The Democrat benefits from increased support among younger voters as well as a widening gender gap. The poll also finds support for a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage hovering just above 60% while one that would change the state’s primary election system has now fallen below the threshold needed for adoption.

            Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 1% support Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian), less than 1% back Howie Hawkins (Green), and 2% are undecided. In different likely voter models⁺, the race stands at 51% for Biden and 45% for Trump in a high turnout scenario and 50% to 46% with lower turnout. Biden’s current lead is nearly identical to the likely voter model results in last month’s Monmouth poll. The last two presidential elections in Florida were decided by a single percentage point.

The gender gap has widened in the past month. Biden leads among women by 60% to 37% (versus 53% to 41% in September) and Trump leads among men by 54% to 39% (versus 49% to 46% last month). The Democrat maintains a large advantage among voters of color (68% to 23%) although his lead is smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). These findings are virtually identical to Monmouth’s September results. According to the 2016 National Election Pool’s exit poll, Hillary Clinton won Florida’s Latino vote by 27 points (62% to 35%). Trump leads among white voters by 55% to 41%, but this is much smaller than his 32-point margin among white voters in the 2016 exit poll (64% to 32%).

Florida’s sizable senior vote remains divided – 51% for Trump and 47% for Biden. Trump had a 2-point lead (49% to 47%) among voters aged 65 and older in September. Trump also has an edge among voters aged 50 to 64 (52% to 45%), a group that was evenly divided (48% to 48%) last month. Biden is able to offset these deficits with a strong showing among voters under 50 years old (57% to 35% for Trump, up from 53% to 38% last month).

“Biden appears to be holding on to enough support among Latino voters and is potentially building a cushion with younger voters overall. Trump needs to get a larger share of his base out to vote on Election Day in order to repeat his 2016 victory,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

More than half (58%) of registered voters in Florida report having already cast their ballots. Biden leads among this group by 59% to 39%. Trump has a 53% to 38% edge, though, among those who have yet to vote. When the sample is put into different likely voter models, Trump pulls further ahead among the vote that is still outstanding – 56% to 37% for Biden in a high turnout scenario and 61% to 32% at a lower level of turnout. Despite the challenger’s consistent lead in the national polls, though, Florida voters are more likely to expect Trump (49%) rather than Biden (41%) will emerge victorious.

– Other poll findings –

            The Monmouth University Poll also asked about two amendments on the Florida ballot. Currently, 63% of registered voters support a measure to raise the state’s minimum wage to $15.00 an hour in five years. Just 32% say they will vote against this. However, support is just over the 60% threshold it will need for adoption. This question was polling at a slightly higher 67% support level last month. The drop in support has come mainly from Republicans (38% now versus 49% in September). Large majorities of Democrats (90%, similar to 87% last month) and independents (63%, similar to 65% last month) back the minimum wage hike. Among likely voters, support for the minimum wage ballot question stands at 63% in a high turnout scenario and 62% in a low turnout scenario.

            A measure to change the state’s primary system for state and local offices has fallen below the threshold needed for passage. Just over half (53%) of the state’s voters support adopting an open “jungle” primary format where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation, while 30% oppose this. Support for this question stood at 63% last month. Majorities of Democrats (62%, similar to 65% last month) and independents (59%, down from 68%) intend to vote for this change. These two groups may meet the 60% required for passage, but would not be able to offset the tumbling support of Republicans (40%, down from 55%). Among likely voters, support for the primary election reform measure stands at 53% in a high turnout scenario and 51% in a low turnout scenario.

            “Both major political parties have campaigned against these primary election reforms. It looks like the message has sunk in on the Republican side at least,” said Murray.

            In other poll findings, voter opinion of Gov. Ron DeSantis’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak has improved. Just over half (55%) say he has done a good job and 41% say he has done a bad job. The governor’s pandemic rating last month was 48% good job and 47% bad job.

            Florida has recently asked the federal government to allow the state government to take over permitting authority for dredging and development in wetlands. State voters are divided on this potential shift in control of wetlands oversight. Slightly more approve (43%) than disapprove (34%) of it, while another 23% are unsure.

            The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 24 to 28, 2020 with 509 Florida registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

  ⁺   Monmouth’s likely voter models for the 2020 election are not forecasts. They are designed to present a range of reasonable outcomes based on voter intentions as of this moment (including ballots already cast as well as potential for undercounting among certain demographic groups due to election administration issues). Each registered voter is assigned a probabilistic weight between 0 and 1, based primarily on past voting history, with adjustments for self-reported likelihood to vote, motivation and other factors. Further adjustments are applied to the aggregate sample based on turnout propensities among different demographic groups (e.g. by race, gender, education).

* 2016 presidential margin by county groupings:

Swing (21% of turnout) – 7 counties where the winning margin for either candidate was less than 10 points, with a cumulative vote of 48.6% Clinton and 47.6% Trump (Duval, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Monroe, Pinellas, Seminole, St. Lucie).

Clinton (37% of turnout) – Clinton won these 8 counties by 10 points or more, with a cumulative vote of 62.1% to 35.2% (Alachua, Broward, Gadsden, Leon, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach).

Trump (43% of turnout) – Trump won these 52 counties by 10 points or more, with a cumulative vote of 61.6% to 35.1% (remainder of state).

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Note: Voters who report already casting their ballots were asked, “In the election for X, did you vote for…” for Q1 and “Did you vote for or against…” for Q4 and Q5.]

1.      If the election for President was today, would you vote for … Donald Trump the Republican, Joe Biden the Democrat, Jo Jorgensen the Libertarian, Howie Hawkins of the Green Party, or another candidate? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] [If UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward – Donald Trump or Joe Biden?]

[1A.  If Trump/Biden voter, ASK: Are you certain about your vote choice, or might you change your mind before election day?]

[QUESTIONS 2 & 3 WERE ROTATED]

2.      What is the likelihood that you might vote for Donald Trump – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

3.      What is the likelihood that you might vote for Joe Biden – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

4.      There is a measure on the ballot that would raise the state minimum wage to $10.00 per hour next year, and increase it by $1.00 each year until it reaches $15.00 per hour. Will you vote for or against this measure?

5.      Another measure on the ballot would change Florida’s primary election system for state offices such as governor and legislature. All candidates will appear on the same primary ballot and all voters will be eligible to vote regardless of party registration. The top two vote getters in the primary advance to the general election. Will you vote for or against this measure?

6.      Most decisions about issuing permits to fill and dredge Florida wetlands for development are currently under the federal government’s authority. Do you approve or disapprove of a plan to transfer this wetland permitting authority to the Florida state government?

7.      Has Governor Ron DeSantis done a good job or bad job handling the coronavirus outbreak?  [Is that very or somewhat good/bad?]

8.      Do you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the 2020 presidential election? [Is that very or somewhat optimistic/pessimistic?]

9.      How motivated are you to vote in the election for president – very motivated, somewhat motivated, or not that motivated?

10.    Compared to past elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as past elections?

11.    For each of the following situations please tell me if it personally worries you a lot, a little, or not at all? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

Knowing you will have access to medical care if you need it

Knowing you will have a stable income over the next year

The possible breakdown of law and order

The coronavirus pandemic

[QUESTIONS 12-15 WERE ROTATED]

12.    Who do you trust more to keep health care affordable and accessible – Donald Trump or Joe Biden, or both equally?

13.    Who do you trust more on creating jobs and strengthening the economy – Donald Trump or Joe Biden, or both equally?

14.    Who do you trust more on maintaining law and order – Donald Trump or Joe Biden, or both equally?

15.    Who do you trust more on handling the coronavirus pandemic – Donald Trump or Joe Biden, or both equally?

16.    How will you vote this year – in person on Election Day, in person at an early voting location, or by mail ballot?  [If ALREADY VOTED: How did you vote this year…?]

17.    Overall, how confident are you that the election will be conducted fairly and accurately – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

18.    Regardless of who you support now, who do you think will win the presidential election this year – Donald Trump or Joe Biden? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

19.    In the past week, have you been contacted by a political campaign via phone, text or email urging you to vote or support a particular candidate? [If YES: How many times has this happened in the past week – more than once a day, about once a day, or less often?]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 24 to 28, 2020 with a statewide random sample of 509 Florida voters drawn from a list of registered voters. This includes 100 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 409 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English and Spanish. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for party registration, age, gender, race, education, and region based on state voter registration list information and U.S. Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter sample). For results based on the full voter sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.