NJ-11: A Consensus Forming?

House Appropriations Committee chairman and New Jersey Congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen’s (R-Morristown) surprise retirement announcement last week was initially met with cheers from the national Democratic establishment and local rank and file.  As an open seat, they believed their conversion chances were growing even stronger.  But, it appears that local Republican leaders are very quickly working to build support for a contender who may well become a consensus GOP candidate as soon as next week.

When Mr. Frelinghuysen decided not to seek a 13^th term, state Sen. Joe Pennacchio (R-Montville) immediately indicated that he would become a congressional candidate.  Almost as quickly, neighboring Assemblyman Anthony Bucco (R-Randolph) followed suit.  But, Assemblyman Jay Webber (R- Parsippany), who also represents the 26^th Legislative District (as does Sen. Pennacchio), is now coming to the forefront as the man to beat in the GOP primary.

Upon Assemblyman Webber, a former New Jersey Republican Party chairman, entering the race, Sen. Pennacchio quickly bowed out and Mr. Bucco is also emitting signals that he, too, will soon exit.  This leaves only attorney and first-time candidate Martin Hewitt remaining as an opponent for Mr. Webber.

. . . .

Mr. Trump won the district even though he lost the state by a considerable 55-41% spread.  Therefore, while the electorate may be trending a bit more Democratic than its long history would suggest, NJ-11 is still more winnable than not for most Republican candidates.

. . . .

The Democrats have four announced candidates, and all were running before Mr. Frelinghuysen decided not to seek re-election.  But, two stand out.  Attorney and Navy veteran Mikie Sherrill, a first time candidate, has already raised $1.23 million for her campaign, and has over $820,000 in the bank.  Businesswoman Tamara Harris, another candidate in her initial race, has obtained more than $566,000 with over $455,000 cash-on-hand, but $317,000 of this came from the candidate either through contribution or loan.  Conversely, Ms. Sherrill contributed only $1,800 to her effort.

Though the fundraising is impressive, if both candidates stay in the race to fight in a Democratic primary, most of these resources will be spent by the time the general election begins in June.

. . . .

With the emergence of Assemblyman Webber as the potential consensus Republican candidate, the GOP is already in much better political shape than when Mr. Frelinghuysen made his retirement announcement.  The race must be considered a toss-up in the early going, but the campaign has substantially changed in just its first week as an open seat contest.