RATINGS CHANGE: After PA-18, Cook Political Report Moves NJ-07 to Toss up
RATINGS CHANGE: After PA-18, Cook Political Report Moves NJ-07 to Toss up
Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted the race in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District toward Democrats, moving the rating from Lean Republican to Toss Up. Citing the strong national environment for Democrats, Cook’s David Wasserman noted that many vulnerable House Republicans have never faced a competitive race and should be on, ‘heightened alert’.
“This ratings change shows once again how vulnerable Representative Lance is ahead of next year’s election,” said DCCC Spokesman Evan Lukaske. “Representative Lance owns this disastrous Republican agenda, which is inflicting pain on New Jersey families, leading to increased premiums, higher taxes and depressed home values. Lance’s weakness and ineffectiveness have been on display all cycle, and it’s time he’s replaced with a Democratic who will actually get things done for Garden State families.”
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March House Update: Ratings Changes in 10 Districts | Cook Political Report
By David Wasserman
March 16, 2018
Democrat Conor Lamb’s victory in a district that voted for President Trump by nearly 20 points has many House Republicans sitting in less Trump-friendly districts on heightened alert. Of the 120 Republicans sitting in districts where Trump won by less in 2016, 19 aren’t running for reelection and 70 more were first elected after 2008 — in other words, they haven’t had to run in this type of political environment before.
[…] NJ-07: Leonard Lance (R) – North central: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit
Toss Up. Lance, a throwback to northeastern GOP moderates of yesteryear, has typically faced his biggest challenges in primaries. But after the 7th CD voted for Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 48 percent, his main 2018 concern will be the general. Lance hasn’t shied away from town halls and voted against the healthcare bill and final GOP tax bill, but Democrats will still seek to tie him to the larger Republican agenda.
This week, Democrats’ nominee became much clearer when Tom Malinowski, former Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights under President Obama, won Union County Democrats’ endorsement. Winning that key “county line” prompted his chief rival, banker Linda Weber, to drop out. Malinowski served as a speechwriter for Madeleine Albright in the 1990s and Washington director of Human Rights Watch in the 2000s, and has raised $527,000.
Malinowski, a Polish-born former Rhodes Scholar, grew up in Princeton (just across the line from the 7th CD) and recently moved into Rocky Hill (just outside Princeton but inside the 7th CD) after having lived in DC for decades. Republicans will call Malinowski a “Princeton elitist” who espouses far-left foreign policy positions. But Malinowski’s story of “blowing the whistle” on Russian election meddling in the final days of the Obama presidency should help him raise money.
Republicans are also encouraged that GOP gubernatorial nominee Kim Guadagno carried the 7th CD last November and Sen. Bob Menendez, fresh off his trial, tops Democrats’ ticket.
Lance survived another very difficult year for Republicans, 2008. But white-collar central New Jersey is now questioning its allegiance to the GOP in the era of Trump much more than it did then. Lance received a weak 54 percent in 2016 against a poorly funded opponent, and if voters see this race as a referendum on Trump, Lance’s moderate reputation may not save him. This race is a Toss Up.
