Maduro - What Comes Next?

BY MICHAEL GRAHAM 

Whatever one’s opinion may be about the Venezuelan assault and capture of President Nicolas Maduro, the United States military executed an astounding operation of daring and precision in the dead of night and accomplished their mission, Operation Absolute Resolve, without any U.S. casualties.  The professionalism of our military and their extraordinary capabilities are unquestioned.  Our military has time and time again demonstrated the ability to execute virtually any mission and meet any challenge.  Now the nation, and the world, must hold its collective breath as we wait and see if we can rely on the wisdom of a decidedly less extraordinary class, politicians, to successfully navigate the aftermath of that tactically brilliant operation.

Make no mistake, the subversion of Congress’s war making powers threatens the constitutional order and once again assigns powers to the Executive Branch that our Founding Fathers never intended.  Congress holds war powers precisely to prevent Presidents from turning the intoxicating power of our military might into despotism.  Clearly, reasonable minds can agree that a Commander in Chief must act swiftly in the face of imminent threats, but here, the Trump Administration has not even attempted to make such a case.  What we’re seeing now is our nation’s foreign policy taking a dangerous shift from the rational, rules-based order committed to protecting the free world, to a thuggish, arrogant, might makes right philosophy that can fracture, even shatter, our alliances and moral authority.

Even now, despite the Administration’s incursions into our constitutional separation of powers, the United States has an opportunity to secure democracy for Venezuelans who suffered decades of Chavista oppression. Trump’s statements since Maduro’s capture, however, have provided little comfort that the United States will live up to its founding principles and promise in a post-Maduro Venezuela. Maduro, an illegitimate president who refused to honor the results of a free and fair election in 2024 that went overwhelmingly to his opposition, chose the path of despotism and tyranny, retaining his seat through corrupt election tactics and brute force.  (Maduro and opposition claim victory in Venezuela presidential election : NPR).  His regime has imprisoned political opposition and allegedly committed acts of torture and other atrocities against his people.  (Human rights in Venezuela Amnesty International)  But the question is not whether Maduro was a bad president and a bad man whom the Venezuelan people are better off without.  The question is what comes next?

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado Parisca – the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner whom the Chavista would not allow to run in the 2024 Presidential election due to dubious, decade old corruption charges – has thrown her support behind Edmundo Gonzalez, her party’s nominee and victor of the 2024 election, to succeed Maduro.  (Who is María Corina Machado? : NPR); (Gonzalez widely believed to have defeated Maduro in landslide victory:  U.S. recognizes Venezuela's opposition candidate Edmundo González as president-elect | PBS News).  The installation of Venezuela’s legitimate President would seem a victory for the Venezuelan people and democracy writ large, and such an outcome could boost President Trump’s support at home for this, at best, legally questionable operation.

Rather than seizing on this opportunity, Trump appears more interested in seizing Venezuelan oil reserves.  The ruling Chavista still maintain control of the country, and there is no indication that they intend to transfer power to anyone, let alone the opposition party.  Trump, in typical wannabe mob-boss fashion, has not demanded that Maduro’s Vice President and current Acting President Delcy Rodriguez abdicate, only that she follow his demands, and he appears particularly interested in her desire to follow his demands with respect to Venezuelan oil and mineral reserves.  (Trump warns Venezuelan VP Delcy Rodríguez in magazine interview | Reuters).  On Saturday, Trump stated “U.S. officials had spoken with Rodriguez, and reported that ‘she’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.’”  Id.  Shortly after, Delcy made statements condemning Maduro’s capture and stated that Venezuela would defend its natural resources.  Id.  Trump would go on to state that she’ll suffer a fate worse than Maduro, Id. leading Delcy to reverse course and express her desire to “collaborate” with the United States.  (Venezuela acting President Delcy Rodriguez claims she wants to 'collaborate' with US post-Maduro | New York Post).  If the Chavista is illegitimate, what difference does Delcy’s willingness to “collaborate” with the United States matter?  Where are the Trump administration calls to empower the legitimate Venezuelan President, Edmundo Gonzalez?  At a minimum, where are their calls for an expedited, UN monitored election to provide the Venezuelans with a leader governing by the will of the people?

There was potentially a right way forward here, certainly there was a strong moral argument to be had before Congress and before Maduro's arrest, but this all has the stench of yet another American war for oil, only this time, the American public has barely received lip service to justify the operation (though those justifications sound eerily familiar to another relatively recent U.S. military conflict).  As noted above, the Trump administration does not appear to have a sincere interest in Venezuelan democracy.  Trump officials have pushed the notion that drug trafficking necessitated these actions, even classifying fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction (DESIGNATING FENTANYL AS A WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION – The White House), and claimed Venezuela was loading boats headed for the United States with “fentanyl and other drugs too.”  (Why has Donald Trump attacked Venezuela and taken Maduro?).  According to the BBC, “fentanyl is produced mainly in Mexico and reaches the US almost exclusively via land through its southern border.”  Id.  In addition to those dubious claims, if the administration cared so deeply about drug trafficking, why pardon former Honduran President Juan Hernandez who was convicted of trafficking 400 tons of cocaine into the United States and allegedly said, “I am going to shove the drugs right up the gringos’ noses”?  (Trump’s pardon of an ex-Honduran president is shocking. So is the history of US support for him | Dana Frank | The Guardian).  The Defense Department designated cartels as terrorist organizations (https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4339943/hegseth-says-designating-venezuelan-cartel-as-terrorist-org-will-bring-new-opti/) and Defense Secretary Hegseth made the assertion that “these cartels are the Al Qaeda of our hemisphere.”  (Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on X: "On October 17th, at the direction of President Trump, the Department of War conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel affiliated with Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), a Designated Terrorist Organization, that was operating in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility. The https://t.co/1v7oR879LC" / X).  Do we really view drug runners in the same light as a vast network of religious fanatics willing to hijack planes and fly them on suicide missions into our skyscrapers and government buildings?  It defies credulity that any of the justifications posed by the Trump administration could legitimately be said to articulate a clear and imminent threat to the United States necessitating an act of war like capturing a foreign leader.  The more probable explanation for our Venezuelan operations have come directly from the mouth of the President, to get the oil.  (U.S. will look to tap Venezuelan oil reserves, Trump says); (Trump Rips Iraq Concerns Over Venezuela in Scarborough Call).

Is this what has become of the great American experiment?  Apparently, the Trump Administration believes so.  Look no further than the absurdity of our renewed threats to our Danish allies.  Trump has again made the ridiculous and utterly unsubstantiated assertion that the United States needs Greenland (Trump's Venezuela attack, Greenland threats raise fears in Denmark, Europe).  We already have military bases on Greenland.  Why do we need to possess our ally’s territory?  With these threats, the administration makes clear that it has no interest in being a nation of principle, but rather an amoral (or perhaps even an immoral) nation that blusters and bullies whenever it likes and that takes what it likes from friend or foe.

None of this is necessary.  Venezuela overwhelmingly elected a Maduro-opposition party led by the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace prize.  Let them self-govern.  Denmark is a centuries-old ally.  Negotiate for expanded military presence in Greenland.  Key to our success in the post-World War II era has been allies joining alliances like NATO because the want to align with the United States, standing in stark contrast to the former-Soviet Union, and now Russia under Valdmir Putin, who force nations to join them at the point of a gun.  Trump Administration actions erode our allies’ trust and threaten to fracture a world order that has seen the United States grow into the most prosperous and powerful nation that has ever existed on the face of the Earth.  We were not always a perfect ally, but for the better part of a century, we were a reliable ally committed to leading and protecting the free world.

If we continue down this vile path, we may never restore the trust we built over the 80-year post-World War II era.  There is still time for this administration to course correct.  But that window is rapidly closing.  Venezuelans celebrating Maduro’s ouster may soon turn their ire and discontent against us if they see that a dictator has been replaced by imperialism hellbent on extracting their wealth.  The free world may fracture into pockets of fear and isolationism if the United States can no longer be counted on to stand for the sanctity of democracy and self-government.  As brilliant as our military performed in Operation Absolute Resolve, that was merely the first sentence in the first chapter of the post-Maduro Venezuela.  It is far easier to start a war than to the win the peace, and the United States now has a great responsibility to ensure that what comes next is not only a just outcome for the Venezuelan people, but also that we as a nation live up to the promise of our American principles.

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