BY SAMUEL PRESCOTT

Schlemiel is a Yiddish word that, in life, describes an "inept/incompetent person" or a "fool." What about in American politics?

Foolishness can be subjective, except at the extremes. As for incompetence? There – one can look to process.  Does a person make complex, consequential decisions based on a detailed understanding of the facts and what is possible?  Are those decisions made a colorable means to a stated end?  Before making them, are contrary opinions sought, heard, and assessed?  If not, then the decisionmaker is incompetent.

And if that same decisionmaker then purposefully misstates most or all of what we can plainly see unfold in real time around his or her decisions, then that incompetence is not an aberration.  It is who (and what) they are.

Let’s apply that architecture to our President and Iran. Not using my words.  Instead, his (and those of this core “team”). Here is a sampling.

Why the War Started

It is hard to know.  Rubio said Isreal, in effect, forced our hand ("We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if ‌we didn't preemptively ⁠go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.") (3/2/26 – Rubio). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/.  Trump said he believed Iran was about to strike first. ("I might have forced their (Israel's) hand," Trump said. "If we didn't do it, they (Iran) were going to attack first.") 3/3/36 – Trump) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

Our Goals in the Iran War

Regime Change

First this was a goal; until it wasn’t. As per Trump:

"Take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations." (2/28/26 – Trump) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-goals-iran-war-and-what-hes-saying-now-nuclear-missiles-regime-change/

"We've had regime change, if you look already, because the one regime was decimated, destroyed, they're all dead. The next regime is mostly dead, and the third regime, we're dealing with different people than anybody's dealt with before. It's a whole different group of people. So I would consider that regime change." (3/29/26 – Trump)  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-goals-iran-war-and-what-hes-saying-now-nuclear-missiles-regime-change/

"You talk about regime change. I never cared about regime change." (6/16/26 – trump) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-goals-iran-war-and-what-hes-saying-now-nuclear-missiles-regime-change/

Iran’s Ballistic Missiles

This was another goal.  Until it also wasn’t. As per Trump:

We will completely destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capability, and annihilate Iran’s Navy (Trump - 2/28/26) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

We were "destroy[ing] Iranian offensive missiles, destroy[ing] Iranian missile production, destroy[ing] their navy and other security infrastructure." (Hegseth. 3/4/26) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

Followed by this.  It is "OK" for Iran to keep some of its ballistic missiles. (6/18/26 – Trump) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-goals-iran-war-and-what-hes-saying-now-nuclear-missiles-regime-change/

Tolls for Ships Using the Strait of Hormuz

No tolls.  Period.  Except . . . As per Trump:

"​​We have to have a deal that's acceptable to me and part of that deal is going to be we want free traffic of oil and everything else." (4/6/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

Ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz should pay the US a 20% “reimbursement fee.”. (7/13/26 – Trump).  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/13/trump-says-us-will-become-guardian-of-strait-of-hormuz-and-collect-tolls

"Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States." (7/14/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump-backs-away-from-plans-to-charge-fees-in-the-strait-of-hormuz

Iran’s Nuclear Program

And the existential goal.

We will deny Iran the ability to have a nuclear weapon (2/28/26 - Trump) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

The U.S. deal under discussion will be “far better” than the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement negotiated under President Barack Obama. (4/20/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

“[I]f they had a nuclear weapon, they'd use it.” (7/8/26 – Trump) https://abcnews.com/International/trump-mou-calls-iranian-leaders-scum-latest-strikes/story?id=134576539

"We're going to de-nuke it. We're not going to let them, because they're crazy, and they can't have a nuclear weapon," (7/8/26 – Trump) https://abcnews.com/International/trump-mou-calls-iranian-leaders-scum-latest-strikes/story?id=134576539

Iran has a "last chance" to reach a nuclear agreement. (8/3/26 – Trump). https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera/videos/us-president-donald-trump-said-iran-has-a-last-chance-to-reach-a-nuclear-agreeme/1429052762365331/

And then, just days ago, Trump was reported to have privately conceded, in meetings with senior aides, that addressing the nuclear issue into a wider end of the war is unachievable and is now just focused on getting ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz again.(8/10/26 – Trump) https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-tells-aides-may-end-101647774.html

When the War Will End

Whack a mole. As per Trump:

Five weeks and no longer (Trump - 3/2/26) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

The strikes on Iran were "only just the beginning" (3/8/26 – Hegseth) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much." "We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough," Trump told reporters later on the same day. When asked if the war was beginning ​or complete, he said: "Well, I think you could say both." (3/9/26 – Trump) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

The war will be over "soon" because there is "practically nothing left to target." "Any time I want it to end, it will end." (3/11/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

For Iran, it's a war, and for the U.S., it "turned out to be easier than we thought." At a rally in Kentucky, Trump again declared victory. "Let me tell you, we've won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won the -- in the first hour, it was over." (3/11/26- Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

There is no time frame; instead, "[i] will be at the president's choosing, ​ultimately, where we say, 'Hey, we've achieved what we need to.'" (3/19/26 – Hegseth) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

"From the beginning, from this podium, we haven't stated how long it will take." Trump "gets to control the throttle… and so it's not for me to posit whether it's the beginning, the middle, or the end" of the conflict. (3/20/26 – Hegseth) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"[W]e are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts" in ​the Iran war. (3/20/26 – Trump) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-trumps-stated-reasons-goals-timeline-iran-war-have-shifted-2026-03-20/

"We estimated it would take approximately four to six weeks to achieve our mission, and we're way ahead of schedule. … The Iranian regime is now admitting to itself that they have been decisively defeated." (3/36/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"The war in Iran is going along swimmingly. We can do whatever we want. And it should be, it should be ending pretty soon. It was perfect. I mean, it's perfect." (4/16/6 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

Our (un)Diplomatic Approach

If Iran doesn’t fully open the strait their power plants will be obliterated. (3/21/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!" (4/4/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F-----' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah." (4/5/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will." (4/7/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"We're dealing with people that I think are very rational people, and they were nice to deal with," noting that some prior Iranian leaders were killed during the war. "They were strong people, smart people. … They're not radicalized and they're looking to help their country." (6/16/26 – Trump) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-goals-iran-war-and-what-hes-saying-now-nuclear-missiles-regime-change/

"I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum. You know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people. They're led by sick people." (7/8/26 – Trump) https://abcnews.com/International/trump-mou-calls-iranian-leaders-scum-latest-strikes/story?id=134576539

The “Deal”

In rejecting Pope Leo XIV's call for a ceasefire, Trump noted "you don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side." (3/20/26 – Trump). https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

The U.S. had "very, very strong talks" with Iran and that the countries wanted to make a deal. "But we'll at some point very, very soon meet. We're doing a five-day period. We'll see how that goes. And if it goes well, we're going to end up with settling this. Otherwise, we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out." (3/23/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

Iran was a "tremendous success" and that the country wants to make a deal. (3/24/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

Iran is "begging to work out a deal. I don't know if we'll be able to do that. I don't know if we're willing to do that." (3/26/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

The U.S. is in "serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran." If a deal is not "shortly reached" and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately open, he said, the U.S. will blow up and obliterate Iran's electric plants, oil wells and Kharg Island. (3/30/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"Well, it could end very quickly, the war, if they do what they have to do. They have to do certain things. They know that. They've been negotiating, I think in good faith. We've had total regime change." (4/6/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

Iran had agreed to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz, therefore he agreed to suspend attacking Iran for two weeks. "Total and complete victory. 100%. No question about it," (4/7/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"[M]ost points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not." (4/12/26 – Trump) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage, but the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete. This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated." (4/17/26 – Trump). https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

"We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!" (4/19/26 – Trump), https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-timeline-of-trumps-shifting-statements-about-how-long-the-iran-war-will-last

The interim agreement reached with Iran last month is "over," following an intense exchange of fire between the two sides on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.(7/8/26 – Trump). https://abcnews.com/International/trump-mou-calls-iranian-leaders-scum-latest-strikes/story?id=134576539

The Strait of Hormuz could open soon, (8/3/26 – Trump). https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran

Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States removes its blockade of Iranian ports, pays compensation for its war damage, lifts sanctions, and releases Iran’s frozen assets, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said. (8/10/26). https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran

The US is demanding “compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts, for which they are famous.” Which will be firmly into any, and all, future negotiations.” (8/10/26 – Trump). https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/10/world/live-news/iran-war-trump?post-id=cmsngqhry00003b6usy4bet3f

Epilogue

The upshot of all this activity is not yet knowable.  What can be said is that, as of August 11, 2026:

“[T]he Arab Gulf states cannot really ensure complete safety and openness of the Strait of Hormuz and can no longer rely upon it for transport or trade,” said Umer Karim, a researcher in Gulf security matters at the University of Birmingham. “Thus there is no other option for now but to concede to a degree to Iranian demands.” https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gulf-states-accept-a-new-normal-in-hormuz-iran-is-in-control-6db8908d

That is what this looks like.  Decide for yourselves what it suggests. Savy?  Or schlemiel?