Whatever happens tonight in the CD-11 Democratic Primary, sources for a variety of reasons see it as the singularly most fascinating congressional contest in the last ten years.

No one really feels comfortable predicting a winner.

There's no intellect with a pipe in his mouth authoritatively calling the contest.

Why?

There are too many variables, and 11 candidates, all of them tugging in different directions like contestants at an old fashioned taffy pull.

Former U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski has the backing of the Democratic Committee in Morris County, which commands the largest portion of the 11th District. As a former congressman, moreover, Malinowski has strong name ID. But his status as the presumed frontrunner has also made him a target. Someone last night sent InsiderNJ a tableful of mail penetrating in the district and much of it - both positive and - largely, whether fairly or not - negative, featured Malinowski.

Other candidates from Morris, among them military veterans Justin Strickland and Zach Beecher, may chew into the former congressman's base of support.

In neighboring Essex, Commissioner Brendan Gill has a history of local relationship building, county organization backing and a strong labor presence, all of which to combine to give the impression of a strong ground game. In addition, Essex County Democratic Committee Chairman LeRoy Jones appears motivated in support of Gill, who won the endorsement of Jones' county committee at a special convention. Gill, though, doesn't have Malinowski's name ID.

Then there's political organizer Analilia Mejia, also of Essex County, who not only burnished multiple large-scale endorsements (among them Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Elizabeth Warren), but won the backing of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. Running last year in the Democratic Primary for governor, Baraka won his home county of Essex, the equivalent of a joker-like handshake buzzer jolt to Jones and Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo. Mejia has SEIU support, too, and they organize. The disintegration of local media has shriveled the visibility fortunes of local elected officials and their issues, while the precarious stakes of the country dominate the cable news cycle.

Sources say ICE overreach and deep-set fears about the militarization of democracy dovetail with Mejia's core messaging and life's work of advocating for vulnerable populations. They see a potential perfect storm scenario wherein a convergence of issues, progressive energies, organization and a chopped-up field add up to Mejia mayhem for the two perceived frontrunning males.

That said, just a few short years ago, the checked pants, badminton racket-wielding Rodney Frelinghuysen ruled the CD-11 roost with his mild-mannered ways, for years benignly suitable to a leafy, largely affluent, and mostly highly issues-educated district. Mikie Sherrill, now governor of New Jersey, in 2018 won the 11th basically as an anti-Trump moderate and primarily a political pragmatist who lacked the perceived presence of a boss leering over her shoulder. An independent Democrat, in other words, with a real service record that connected with patriotic suburbanites who didn't want the rules of engagement overhauled, and still less the dimensions of a revolution, so much as competent leadership that would buck Trump, then, as now, in unconstitutional thrash-mode.

Is the district ready for Bernie Sanders and AOC?

Well, say sources, maybe not entirely, but in a divided field, they don't dismiss the possibility of Mejia doing damage.

Speaking of doing damage, not a lot of people gave former LG Tahesha Way much of a chance at the outset. She got in late. She won only the partial backing of her home county Passaic Democratic Committee support (sharing the organization's affection with Commissioner John Bartlett) but AIPAC ads in support of Way have aggressively gone after Malinowski. Passaic contains fewer registered voters in the district than either Morris or Essex. But if at the outset sources asked about the former LG and whether her candidacy would be a factor said, "No way," they are now, at the very least, saying, "Way."

As for everyone else, everyone unmentioned, he or she in his or her own way may siphon votes from one of the frontrunners, giving an edge to some bundled, anxious, ambitious, and sharp-elbowed form who on a cold Thursday in February, needs every inch of ice - not ICE - he or she can get.