Trying to Make Sense of Election Day Turnout

For jittery Democrats, New Jersey right now feels frustratingly like the David Banner version of what they hope will be the Incredible Hulk of the party's performance in the rest of the country.

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People keep waiting for voter anger over Donald Trump to produce a barbaric, shirt-shredding, Lou Ferrigno-like Election Day transformation that upends the polls and produces a 12-0 congressional running of the table.

But - removing early voting - it's likely not going to turn out exactly that way.

One insider told InsiderNJ that comparing this year to last year, for example, means confronting bigger turnout (2025) as opposed to a larger statewide margin for D's over R's (2026).

The lack of a compelling senate race contributes to a basically moribund atmosphere, the source speculated. In the past, statewide senate races produced some legitimate donnybrooks. Now, incumbent U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), already said to be eyeballing a presidential candidacy, versus Republican challenger Justin Murphy, feels like a non-event.

Voters stunned by incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom Kean's (R) CD-7 vanishing act and excruciating political skid hoped to reproduce an atmosphere like that southward, in the undeniably redder and Trumpier CD-2. U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) is a different animal than Kean, but there's still four hours until the polls close. It's a real fight down there. Democratic challenger, Zack Mullock, brought in Governor Mikie Sherrill and DNC Chairman Ken Martin in the closing days of what most see as a much closed than usual CD-2 contest.

For Democrats hungry for Election Day energy and satiated by only pockets of higher energy in CD-2 and CD-7, trying to imagine Election Day in places like Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Maine shouldn't be too hard. It's probably a little more like last year, with the added emotion of another year of Trump in office.

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