StimSight Research Poll: Sherrill Holds Lead in Democratic Primary for Guv.
A StimSight Research poll of likely voters in the 2025 Democratic primary for New Jersey governor finds that Mikie Sherrill holds a lead outside the margin of error when leaned candidate support is taken into
account. She currently has 31% of the vote to 21% for Ras Baraka and 19% for Steve Fulop. The
remaining candidates get support from about 1-in-10 primary voters, including 10% for Josh
Gottheimer, 9% for Sean Spiller, and 9% for Steve Sweeney.
According to Patrick Murray, who conducted the poll, the issues that Democratic voters consider the most important factors in choosing a nominee for governor are fighting Trump (46%), protecting Social Security and Medicaid (44%), beating the Republican in November (41%), and improving affordability (37%). Sherrill has a clear advantage when voters are asked to name which candidates stand out on these top issues. This is especially true on the question of who can win in November, where 57% name Sherrill compared to 37% for Fulop and 20% or less for the rest of the field. She also stands out from the field as a candidate voters see as being trustworthy (44%, to 27% for Baraka and 26% for Fulop).
"The poll shows us what we've been seeing in other polls, which is an advantage for Mikie Sherrill in the Democratic Primary," Murray told InsiderNJ. "Other candidates have advantages in some areas but Sherrill has the largest lane."
Please see the links below for details.
Sherrill has a 52% favorable rating among Democratic primary voters, with only 15% feeling
unfavorable and 33% having no opinion of her. It’s important to note that only 6 in 10 primary
voters are “locked in” at this stage (either already voted by mail or are definite about their choice).
Sherrill has the potential to solidify her standing by communicating with voters who have not
formed a strong opinion of her, particularly women, voters under age 50, and voters of color.
METHODOLOGY: The survey was conducted by StimSight Research from May 7-10, 2025 with a probability sample of 409 likely voters in the New Jersey Democratic primary drawn from a list of registered voters with a history of primary participation. Interviews were conducted online via a text-to-web invitation and by live phone interview. The full sample is weighted based on the probabilistic demographic composition of the likely primary electorate. The sampling margin of error for this poll is +4.9 percentage points.
The poll was paid for by InsiderNJ.
