The Race Right NOW

Editor's Note: With Election Day just a bit more than three months away, here are some periodic mutterings about the race.

Jack Ciattarelli says he's a complete Jersey guy - so much so that he talks about retiring not in some exotic locale, but on Long Beach Island. To be specific, Surf City.

This is more than mere verbiage.

Mikie Sherrill was born in Virginia and has never held local office - meaning council member, freeholder or the like.

Ciattarelli has, and he thinks this is an advantage. A recent social media post makes the point thusly:

"OUT OF TOUCH - Jon Corzine wasn't from New Jersey. Phil Murphy wasn't from New Jersey. And Mikie Sherrill isn't from New Jersey. That's why none of them seem to get it."

The post is about housing, but Ciattarelli is talking about more than housing.

Corzine was not re-elected. Murphy was, but Ciattarelli is counting on "Murphy fatigue."

He wants to lump Sherrill in with "outsiders" - people who do not really know the state.

There is logic to his point, but how far does it go?

People move around more than they did, say, 100 years ago and running for office where you did not grow up is not unusual.

Sherrill, of course, unlike Ciattarelli, holds a public position in New Jersey - a member of Congress from CD-11 covering parts of Essex, Passaic and Morris counties.

That allows her to do things her Republican opponent can not do.

One of them involves Picatinny Arsenal, the large military base in Rockaway Township, which is in Sherrill's district.

With the base, a major economic engine for the region, facing massive cuts and the loss of an estimated 1,000 jobs, Sherrill and most of the state's fellow House members complained in a letter to the Pentagon. Unknown at this time if it would do any good.

But that's not the point. Sherrill is in a position to help New Jersey now, Ciattarelli isn't.

Trying to save Picatinny from damaging cuts is the official business of a congresswoman, not a candidate for governor.

But it would be foolish not to see an overlap here.

*  * *

Is there anything sillier - politically speaking - than guilt by association? Or alleged association?

That may sound harsh, but let's consider the following.

Team Jack has been talking a lot about Zohran Mamdani, the left wing Democratic candidate for New York City mayor.

Ciattarelli has accused Sherrill of supporting Mamdani, but then denying she did so.

His campaign is not letting this drop.

In the wake of Monday's tragic shooting at a building housing NFL offices in Manhattan, Ciattarelli posted that the election of a "socialist mayor who wants to defund the police" can not be allowed to happen.

But is this really an issue for New Jersey?

The Sherrill campaign is playing this game too.

Recently, it drew attention to a report that Ciattarelli was seen campaigning with Joe Belnome.

Who's that?

"This tracks,"  her campaign says. "Jack Ciattarelli cozying up to a January 6 insurrectionist is right on brand."

What is not mentioned is that Belnome was the Republican congressional candidate against Sherrill last fall.

And yes, he has said he was at the Jan. 6 protests but denied entering the Capitol.

Belnome raised little money and never had a chance last fall against Sherrill. Hard to see why her campaign would try to make this an issue. All types of people attend campaign events.

*  * *

Let's talk about polling.

A poll this week by FDU has Sherrill in the lead by 8 points. That sounds about right and seems far more reliable than an Eagleton Poll that had Sherrill leading by 20 points.

But another poll by FDU should be more concerning to Ciattarelli.

It found Donald Trump's approval rating in New Jersey at 37 percent.

“Last year’s presidential election was much closer than anyone was expecting in New Jersey,” said pollster Dan Cassino. “But if Trump had the opportunity to turn that into lasting support in the state, it seems to be gone now.”

Ciattarelli was endorsed by Trump in the primary and in a recent interview with radio station 101.5, said he thinks the president has been good for New Jersey.

The poll suggests most in New Jersey disagree.

Ciattarelli wants the race to be about genuine state issues and with Trump's latest numbers, who could blame him?

 

 

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