10 Juicy, Jersey Election Day Predictions

Election Day is nearly upon us and that’s got most of us political junkies jonesing for some democracy. Tuesday is almost here. In the meantime, we’ve got some Election Day predictions for y’all to chew on. Considering my dodgy track, y’all might take this with a grain or two of salt.


10. Menendez sails. Bob Menendez will be declared winner of NJ’s contentious Senate battle moments, nay seconds, after the polls close. Menendez probably wins by 9 or 10 points just like the polls suggest. But Bob Menendez remains one of the most ethically dubious, morally corrupt Senators in modern history. His biggest battle – namely salvaging his tattered reputation – will endure long after the votes are tallied.

In the #MeToo era, how does Menendez explain getting visas for the exotic, foreign “models” for his (married) best friend who’s now in jail? Will Menendez ever be a credible voice on healthcare after that same best friend committed the biggest Medicaid fraud in American history?

I don’t know if he or the NJ democrats have thought that through.

I predict they haven’t.

9. Andy Kim upsets Tom MacArthur.  The race for NJ’s 3rd Congressional district has been a tossup since forever. I’m already sheepish making this prediction while contemplating towns like Toms River (pop. 92,000) and Brick (pop, 75,000) which will break for TMac by a mile. But the Burlington County end of NJ3 is seething with rage and desperate to put a check on President Trump’s ongoing lunacy.

So I’m calling it for Kim by 3 points.

If Andy Kim wins, it’ll be despite Menendez’ headwinds. Kim also got no help from BurlCo Dem chair Joe Andl, an abysmal fundraiser whose primary accomplishment is green-lighting a freeholder candidate who allegedly beat his ex-wife. If the Democrats don’t take control of BurlCo’s Freeholder board, that’s on Andl too.

Win or lost, it’s time for Andl to go. A rebellion is already brewing Mt Laurel.

Quote me on that.

Congressman Tom MacArthur won’t have long to lick his wounds. I predict he’ll quickly be tapped to become Trump’s ambassador to South Korea.

8. Mikie Sherrill pummels Jay Webber. Voters in NJ’s 11th Congressional district will chose Mikie Sherrill, a competent, capable Naval Academy grad over Jay Webber, a chronically put-upon whiner. The margin of victory will be 4.5% which qualifies as a pummeling in an overwhelmingly republican district.


7. Lambertville Fahls Forward. When voters in Lambertville, Hunterdon County choose Julia Fahl as their next mayor, it’ll symbolize a renaissance in the charming Delaware River-side town that had grown a bit state. The political drama was already settled in the primary when Julia upset an incumbent mayor who clung to power  a bit too long. The symbolism of a queer twenty-something new mayor in Lambertville is massive. Lambertville’s about to have a moment. I predict it’s gonna be a good one.


6. Van Drew in a Romp. In an unsurprising result that pleases everyone, Jeff Van Drew pounds his GOP rival Seth Grossman into a paste. The final tally will be something like 60%-38%.

This result has state house implications: the democrats surrounding Van Drew weren’t gonna let anything interfere with his apparent glide path to victory, including a vote to legalize recreational cannabis. Anyone who thought otherwise is either naive or new to NJ politics. There are a lot of new “experts” talking about marijuana in New Jersey. Don’t listen to them.

Listen to me instead.


5. Malinowski edges Lance. It’ll be too close to call on Election Night but voters should wake to news that NJ’s 7th Congressional district chose Tom Malinowski, the Democratic challenger, over GOP incumbent Leonard Lance by one percentage point!! 

If you’re keeping score, that’s a total of 4 house seats NJ democrat will flip on Election Day.



4. GOP Expands US Senate Majority. North Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana I could go on. I don’t see how this doesn’t happen.


3. Democrats Notch key Gov Races. Illinois, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Michigan might do what New Jersey did last November: vote democrat for governor for change.


2. Democrats take the House. Democrats must nab at least 24 seats on Election Day to flip the House of Representatives. New Jersey, together with neighboring Pennsylvania, should provide 10 or 11 of those seats.

Quote me!


And finally…

1. A less rape’y After Parties at The League of Municipalities. The dust won’t settle on election day before NJ’s political universe turns our attention to the atmosphere around the League of Municipalities annual convention extravaganza in Atlantic City Nov 13-15th. This event always had a rather bawdy reputation because there’s lots of booze and, frankly, sexual coercion going on.

This year’s program is packed with intriguing sessions like “Marijuana Legalization: A State & Local Perspective” and “Planning for Tomorrow’s Infrastructure” that seem interesting, relevant, and timely.

I’ve seen bad behavior at the events around the core substantive program. And I’ve heard of much worse. It’s just a pity there’s but one panel related to sexual violence or even remotely #MeToo-ish.

That’s almost a complete missed opportunity.


Jay Lassiter is a writer and activist living in Cherry Hill, NJ. He’s on Twitter @Jay_Lass.





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2 responses to “10 Juicy, Jersey Election Day Predictions”

  1. As a non-Lambertvillian Hunterdonian who’s mostly a bemused bystander and was pretty much neutral during the June primary, I’m not really getting #7 at all. Lambertville seems fine, not sure how it’s a “bit state”. Also, I still have yet to see someone give a reason for Fahl over DelVecchio that involves concrete policy and not just the concept of generational change.

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