Campaign Kickoff: Five factors shaping NJ Governor’s Race 2021  

Ciattarelli

Every governor’s race in New Jersey is shaped by certain unique factors, which influence both the

Murphy
Murphy

conduct and the outcome of the campaign.  In New Jersey Campaign 2021, these factors all point to a comfortable victory for incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, quite possibly a landslide.

The Republican primary will be a contest between former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R-Somerset) and NJGOP Chair Doug Steinhardt.  Ciattarelli has a decided edge over Steinhardt, due to four circumstances:

1) Ciattarelli is the more charismatic candidate and the better communicator of the two;

2) He is better known to primary voters, due to his 2017 GOP primary campaign for governor;

3) His state legislative experience gives him a greater knowledge and familiarity with state issues than Steinhardt; and

4) He is likely to have a substantial fundraising advantage.

 

In the general election, there are five factors, two of which are positive Murphy factors, two of which are negative factors pertaining to each GOP candidate, and one of which is a negative factor pertaining to the NJGOP.

The first pro-Murphy factor is the positive enhancement of his image created by the television commercials produced by non-campaign advocacy organizations on his behalf.  I described these commercials in my column, “The Power of Television: Can Phil Murphy Campaign 2021 Replicate Tom Kean Campaign 1985?”

https://www.insidernj.com/power-television-phil-murphy-campaign-replicate-tom-kean/

The next positive Murphy factor is his handling of the Coronavirus crisis.  There is nothing in a candidate’s record that can benefit him or her more than skillful crisis management.  While Republicans will dispute this, the electorate on the whole perceives Murphy as having most successfully managed the Pandemic.

The negative GOP factor is the dismal image of the Republican brand in the New Jersey African-American community.  This was significantly worsened by the lawsuit on behalf of the NJGOP filed by Steinhardt in his capacity as NJGOP State Committee Chair to invalidate Governor Murphy’s Vote-by-Mail Executive Order, a plan most highly popular in the New Jersey African-American community.   https://www.insidernj.com/no-white-republican-will-elected-governor-senator-decade/

As the lawsuit was filed by Steinhardt and not Ciattarelli, this would have a far more deleterious impact on Steinhardt as a Republican gubernatorial nominee rather than Ciattarelli.

The first negative personal factor affecting Ciattarelli and Steinhardt is the inability thus far of both candidates to develop a compelling message warranting Murphy’s defeat.  This may change in due course, but as shown by the polls thus far, neither prospective GOP nominee has given Independent voters a persuasive reason to oust Murphy.

The final of the five factors is the literal elephant in the room: Donald Trump.  I have written at length about his incompetence, racism, misogyny, bigotry, and anti-science agenda.  It was his gross criminal negligence (a phrase I coined) on the Coronavirus, however, that will undoubtedly result in the Trump name forevermore living in infamy in New Jersey.

Doug Steinhardt has been one of America’s most fervent Trumpist acolytes.  Because of his slavish loyalty to the Donald, he has as much chance of defeating Phil Murphy as I have of being elected Mayor of Damascus.

The Trump albatross weighs slightly lighter on the shoulders of Jack Ciattarelli.

In his 2017 primary campaign for the NJGOP gubernatorial nomination, Ciattarelli explicitly and emphatically repudiated Trump, describing him as unfit for the White House, “a charlatan who is out of step with the Party of Lincoln and is embarrassing the nation.”  For Campaign 2021, however, he obviously felt that he could not win the GOP primary if he maintained his anti-Trump position.  Accordingly, he unenthusiastically endorsed Trump for reelection, while remaining silent on individual Trump issues.

Jack’s flip-flopping on Trump will not help him vis-a-vis Murphy.  He will still be subject to a relentless damaging television commercial attack from the Governor, emphasizing both his 2020 endorsement of Trump and his flip-flopping.

The effect of the Murphy attack on Ciattarelli may ironically be somewhat mitigated by a Steinhardt television assault on Ciattarelli during the primary, contending that Jack is, at heart, anti-Trump.  This may help Jack retain Independent voters whom he might otherwise lose because of his 2020 endorsement of the Donald.

Nevertheless, the continued presence of Trump and Trumpism on the national political scene makes one wonder why anybody would actually seek a seemingly valueless New Jersey Republican gubernatorial nomination.

Alan Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.

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  • Hancock212

    The GOP in NJ is not valueless because of Trump. It is because of Chris Christie. Christie broke the bank with his silly presidential ambitions. He lost legislative seats. His ego sucked all resources out of NJ. Steinhardt continued the decline. Any politician with a keen political sense and without a death wish will stay out of any GOP statewide race until the party recovers. And, if they keep pandering to the left and GOP-lite, it will never recover. Why would anyone with common sense want to join the Kryllos, Jr. Kean, Singh club of perennial loser? Christie Whitman started the decline and Chris Christie finished it.

    • Kathleen Demarest

      That is an interesting, thought-provoking comment.

    • Joe Finis Sr.

      WRONG JAGOFF

  • Kathleen Demarest

    GOVERNOR MURPHY……..YES

    When we had absolutely no leadership on a national level, most especially in regard to the coronavirus, Governor Murphy continued to lead us with empathy, clarity,
    science based facts, thorough planning, and common sense.
    I do not take his true concern for the residents of New Jersey for granted.

    At age 90 I doubt that anyone would offer me a political job or a sum of
    money to change my mind. But, if by some miracle, someone does,
    it will not work.
    If my sister, even my beloved daughter, were a candidate, I will vote
    for our Governor Murphy. I will vote for the best person. My daughter and
    my sister are not qualified.

    As for STEINHARDT…….forget it………TOAST
    CIATTARELLI…..Trump, no….. Trump, yes…….I am trumped out, Trump weary…NO!!

    Thank you, Alan Steinberg, for writing a factual, concise, interesting column
    that helps to keep this ordinary, voting NJ citizen informed.

    PS… After 8 years of being bullied, chased, and ridiculed by Chris Christie,
    I really appreciate having a civil Governor who cares and isn’t interested
    In putting on an ego-boasting show.

  • Paul Maione

    Is this a joke??? Murphy is destroying small business, unemployment in NJ is a nightmare, his Covid response was overbearing and typical of a scared immature leader. Leading would have provided treatments, not ban them! He killed many people in this state and should go to jail!!!!!

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