The September Emerson College Polling national survey of U.S. voters finds former President Donald Trump with a 47-point lead over his closest competitor in the Republican Presidential Primary, his largest lead since tracking this race in June 2022. Trump’s support increased 9 points since last month’s national poll to 59% while support for Governor Ron DeSantis stayed the same at 12%, and Vivek Ramaswamy fell two points to 7%. Chris Christie and Mike Pence follow with 5% respectively, Nikki Haley with 3%, and Tim Scott with 2%. Five percent are undecided.

“The Trump voter remains resilient, and despite a dip in August’s post-debate poll, Trump has now expanded his lead and has improved his position from before the first debate,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. 

Overall, 63% of Republican Primary voters say they will definitely support their chosen candidate, while 36% say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else. 

“Seventy-five percent of Trump voters say they will definitely support him in the Republican primary, up four points since the August survey, while 42% say the same of Ron DeSantis — a significant hardening among supporters of DeSantis since August, when 25% said the same,” Matt Taglia, new Senior Director at Emerson College Polling, said. 

President Joe Biden holds a 41% approval rating among voters, while 47% disapprove of the job he is doing in the Oval Office. This is slightly down from August when his approval sat at 43% and disapproval was 47%. Sixty-two percent of Democratic Primary voters plan to support the president for re-election as the Democratic nominee, while 14% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 4% support Marianne Williamson. Twenty-one percent are undecided. 

In a general election rematch between Trump and Biden, 45% support the former president and the current president respectively. Ten percent are undecided. When Green Party candidate Cornel West is added to the ballot, Trump holds 43% of voter support, Biden 42%, while 4% support West and 11% are undecided. 

A majority of voters (55%) think President Biden’s age might make it too difficult for him to do the work the presidency requires, while 29% think his age provides him the experience and wisdom to do a good job as president. Sixteen percent think his age does not matter. 

“Republican and independent voters think Biden’s age makes the job of president too difficult, at 79% and 54% respectively, while only a third of Democrats say the same,” Kimball said. “Of those who think Biden’s age makes the job too difficult, 67% plan to vote for Trump in a general election, while 21% would vote for Biden and 12% are unsure.”

A plurality of voters support the United Auto Workers union (42%) strike against large automobile manufacturing companies, while 18% support the companies, 24% support both equally, and 16% support neither. Similarly, 42% side with the Writers Guild of America (WGA) labor union in its strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, while 16% support the company, 20% support both equally, and 22% support neither.

“A majority of Democrats, 59%, support the United Auto Workers strike, while Republicans are more split, with 28% supporting the strike and 29% supporting the car manufacturing companies,” Kimball noted. “Independents lean closer to the Democrats at 38% in support of the union and 15% in support of the company. Similarly, a majority of Democrats (58%) support the WGA strike, compared to just 25% of Republicans.”

Regionally, support for the UAW union is highest in the Northeast (48%), West (44%), and Midwest (44%), and lowest in the South. Support for the companies is highest in the South and Midwest at 21% respectively, compared to 16% in the Northeast and 13% in the West. 

Taglia notes, “While the highest incidence of support for the UAW occurs in the Northeast (48%), support in the Midwest – the traditional home of the US auto industry – only reaches 43%, with 21% of Midwestern voters supporting the automakers.”

The economy remains the most important issue for a plurality of voters, with 40% citing it as their top issue. Thirteen percent of voters chose ‘threats to democracy’ as the top issue facing the U.S., followed by healthcare (12%), immigration (10%), crime (6%), education (5%), and abortion access (4%).