Emerson Poll: Trump 46%, Biden 43%

The latest Emerson College Polling survey finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in a national matchup, 46% to 43%; 11% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, 50% support Trump and 50% support Biden.
“Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46%, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42% to 38%; last month they broke for Biden 43% to 41%.”

With third-party candidates on the ballot, 44% support​ Trump, 40% Biden, 6% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively.

Voter motivation varies by race, age and party:

  • 78% of Republicans are extremely motivated, compared to 65% of Democrats and 63% of independents.
  • 79% of white voters are extremely motivated to vote in this year’s presidential election, compared to 53% of Black voters and 49% of Hispanic voters.
  • Generally, as age increases, so does the percentage of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote: 39% of people ages 18 to 29 are “extremely” motivated to vote, 49% of 30 to 39-year-olds, 72% of 40 to 49-year-olds, 76% of 50 to 59-year-olds, 91% of 60 to 69-year-olds, and 83% of people ages 70 and older.
A series of prominent Democrats were tested in a head-to-head ballot against Donald Trump:

  • Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided
  • Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided
  • Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided
  • Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided
  • Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided
  • Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided
  • Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided
President Biden’s job approval increased two points since last month, from 37% to 39%, while his disapproval dropped one point, from 53% to 52%.

A majority of voters (56%) think the U.S. foreign policy is worse now than it was four years ago. Twenty-seven percent think foreign policy is better now; 17% think it is about the same.

“Perception of the status of U.S. foreign policy varies by party: 48% of Democrats think foreign policy is better now than four years ago, 87% of Republicans think it is worse, while 54% of independents think it is worse,” Kimball noted.

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5 responses to “Emerson Poll: Trump 46%, Biden 43%”

  1. Are you better off four years ago than you are today ?now we can have all the polls you want ,but do this my friends poll the customers at the grocery store or at the gas pump and you just may find who will win this election.

  2. Year-over-year inflation — the rate at which consumer prices increase — was 3.1% in January 2023.
    That’s down from June 2022’s rate of 9.1%, the largest 12-month increase in 40 years. Shelter was the largest contributor to monthly inflation growth for most of 2023. Gasoline was the largest contributor in August.


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