Global Strategies Poll: Sweeney Leads Grenier by 12 Points in Scorched Earth LD3


In the most expensive race in New Jersey legislative history, Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-3) holds a 12-point margin over Republican challenger Fran Grenier in the 3rd Legislative District, 48-36%, according to a polling memo issued by Global Strategy Group.

The memo, which lands on what is by all appearances a competitive contest, reports on a poll of 402 likely general election voters in New Jersey’s 3rd Legislative District.

Here are the survey’s key findings:

Sweeney leads the race for State Senate by double digits. Sweeney leads by 12 points over Grenier (48% Sweeney/36% Grenier), with 14% of voters still undecided.

Sweeney is a strong candidate who enjoys solid approval ratings from voters. Voters are 11 points more likely to approve (49%) than disapprove (38%) of Sweeney’s performance in office. These strong ratings allow Sweeney to outperform the generic Democratic advantage in the district, as his 12-point lead is double the six-point advantage voters give a Democratic candidate in a generic ballot test for State Senate (42% generic Democrat/36% generic Republican).

Voters dislike Grenier. Republican challenger Fran Grenier is five points underwater (26% favorable/31% unfavorable), with little time to repair his image before voters cast their ballots.

Two weeks ago, a Democratic source told InsiderNJ that LD3 was a single digit contest, which the polling memo disputes. In 2009, the year he harvested a majority of caucus votes to land the senate presidency, Sweeney won by just four percentage points. A second Democratic source close to the Senate Majority Office said he suspects the race is closer than the polling memo suggests, noting the dangerous crossfire of the New Jersey Education Association (NJEA) campaign on behalf of Grenier and a Democratic gubernatorial candidacy struggling to connect in the district, the source insisted.

Global Strategy Group conducted the survey of 402 likely general election voters in New Jersey’s 3rd State Legislative District from October 9th to 12th. The results of this survey have a margin of error of +/-4.9%.

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  • none

    Grenier has no support outside of the NJEA leadership. They have a lot of money but not all the teachers are listening to the leadership. Grenier is not even getting the usual GOP support in the District .

    The NJEA is spending a lot of membership money on a candidate that has no local support.

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