I have always maintained that for political junkies like me, New Jersey is an ideal state. Literally, we have a significant election every year.

In even numbered years, we always have elections for seats in the US House of Representatives and often US Senate races, not to mention presidential campaigns every four years. In odd numbered years, we always have elections for one or both houses of the state legislature, not to mention the gubernatorial election every four years.

In retrospect, the gubernatorial election year of 2017 was a year of Republican disaster in the Garden State, followed by an even worse year for the GOP in 2018.

The Republican gubernatorial nominee, the then Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno was far more qualified in terms of both experience and knowledge of the issues than the campaign victor, the Democratic nominee and current governor, Phil Murphy. She performed excellently in the debates and campaigned vigorously and communicated most effectively with voters throughout the state. Her ethics record and character were unassailable.

Yet Guadagno could not overcome a political landscape that has become absolutely forbidding for GOP candidates at both the local and statewide levels. The massive Democratic registration advantage is actually growing, fueled by the increase in the African-American and Hispanic vote. And there is the continuing double albatross of Donald Trump and Chris Christie. Trump is more unpopular in New Jersey than in almost every other state in the nation, and Christie left office in January, 2018 both as an object of contempt, due to Bridgegate, and ridicule, due to Beachchairgate.

The political landscape of Democratic registration advantage and the Trump/Christie albatross was an even more dominating factor in the 2018 election race, with the Republicans reduced to just one seat in the US House of Representatives (Chris Smith). In the US Senate race, incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Menendez, in spite of a corruption-related indictment won an overwhelming landslide over the GOP candidate, Hapless Bob Hugin. In 2019, I have already predicted a virtual standoff in the state legislative races. The presidential election year of 2020 is certain to be a devastating year for New Jersey Republicans at all levels, due to the presence of The Donald at the top of the ticket.

Yet there is hope for the New Jersey Republican Party to capture the governorship in 2021 if former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is the nominee. Amidst a scene of New Jersey Republican devastation, Ciattarelli is the one new star to have emerged over the past four years.

Jack is right out of central casting for a successful NJGOP gubernatorial candidate. He has a highly successful record as a business entrepreneur, a scandal-free personal life, and a solid personal physical appearance made for television.

A superb communicator, Jack’s knowledge of issues, federal and state, is comprehensive, and his proposal on real estate taxes, the perennial major issue in New Jersey is the most creative and insightful I have heard in my four decades of political involvement. And he has an excellent core of advisors, including Trenton’s leading government affairs professional, Dale Florio, Somerset County’s highly respected Republican Chair, Al Gaburo, and Chris Russell, New Jersey’s top Republican political consultant.

Ciattarelli has also most adroitly handled the Trump factor. While he is not a “Never Trumper” and can be expected to support the President’s reelection bid, he has not hesitated to express his dissent from the president on issues where they disagree. Accordingly, he would be well-positioned to withstand any 2021 challenge from the hard-core Trump wing of the party.

Yet for Jack Ciattarelli, the major challenge in 2021 will not come from his Democratic opponent, whether it be the incumbent governor Phil Murphy or a Democratic alternative emerging from the primary. The major obstacle Jack faces in 2021 is the aforesaid anti-Republican landscape prevailing in the Garden State. Yet Jack can prevail if at least two out of the following three landscape changes occur in 2020-2021:

The first would be the defeat of Donald Trump in his bid for Presidential reelection in 2020. To be sure, Trump followers would still be most influential within the Republican Party, even in New Jersey. Yet a Trump defeat would greatly reduce the identification of the party with The Donald. This would greatly assist Jack in his efforts to attract support from women and independent voters.

The second would be a Democratic 2021 primary between incumbent Governor Phil Murphy and a candidate supported by South Jersey Democratic leader George Norcross. This would be a political internecine war, highly financed, with vicious negative television commercials. The winner would win a Pyrrhic victory, with his image badly damaged and many of the loser’s supporters embittered and unwilling to vote in the general election. All this would greatly enhance Jack’s prospects.

The third would be an economic recession in 2020 or 2021. Such an economic reversal negatively impacts incumbents of both parties, regardless of fault. We witnessed this in 1991-1992, when the national recession and its aftermath resulted in the defeat of both the incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush by Bill Clinton in 1992 and the incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jim Florio in 1993 by Christie Whitman, even though Florio was not at fault.

The likelihood of a recession is rising, although as a parent and grandparent, I hope I’m wrong on this. We now have an inverted yield curve where short term interest rates are higher than long term rates, always a precursor of recession. The Trump tax cut of 2017 has been a disaster, adding over a trillion dollars to the deficits over the next decade. This additional debt must be financed.

In the 1980s, the Reagan deficits were financed largely by Treasury debt purchased by the Japanese, keeping interest rates low. The hope of Trump supporters was that the Chinese would finance the current new debt by purchasing Treasury bills. The Trump policies, however, have created hostility between America and the Chinese, making it highly unlikely that the Chinese will purchase our Treasury debt. The Treasury Department will have to offer higher interest rates in order to sell the Treasury bonds, regardless of what the Fed does. And higher Treasury interest rates portend higher interest rates in general, worsening the recession.

So if at least two of the three above happenstances occur, Jack Ciattarelli has a widening path to the New Jersey governorship. In pro football terms, Jack reminds me of Gale Sayers the Hall of Fame Chicago Bears running back of the late 1960s.

If Gale Sayers saw a hole in the opposing defense, he would hit that hole explosively and run through it for a touchdown. If the above described changes in the New Jersey political landscape occur, Jack will see a gap in the Democratic defense, which in 2021 he can run through all the way to the Governor’s Mansion in Drumthwacket.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman.