Monmouth Poll: Little Enthusiasm for Prez Frontrunners

Biden and Trump

There is not a lot of enthusiasm for either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump becoming the major party nominees in 2024. American voters are much more likely to see Biden as too old than say the same about Trump. The Monmouth University Poll finds that Biden’s support in a potential rematch against Trump has slipped over the past two months. This has mainly come from a decline in the Democrat’s support among Black, Hispanic and Asian voters, while Trump has made some gains among this group. The poll also finds differing views of Trump’s current legal woes and the impeachment inquiry into Biden. However, both, along with the Hunter Biden court case, factor into the outlook for a potential rematch of the 2020 election.

Three-quarters (76%) of American voters agree that Biden is too old to effectively serve another term as president. Just under half (48%) say the same about Trump.* In fact, 55% of voters strongly agree with this assessment of Biden’s age while 26% strongly agree with the same statement about Trump. As may be expected, there are partisan differences in these results, with Republicans (23%) being much less likely than other voters to think Trump is too old and Democrats being less likely – although still a 56% majority – to say Biden is too old. There are no sizable differences by age within each party on these views.

“These two men were born only three and a half years apart, but public perceptions of their age are wildly different. This is certainly one of the reasons, but probably not the only reason, why there is little voter enthusiasm for seeing a rematch of 2020 except among partisan loyalists,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

            Just 37% of voters express at least some enthusiasm about the possibility of Trump being the Republican nominee and 32% are enthusiastic about Biden getting the nod for the Democrats. Majorities are not at all enthusiastic about either Trump (52%) or Biden (53%) being at the top of their respective party tickets. Among independents, 35% are enthusiastic about having Trump as the GOP nominee and only 19% feel enthusiastic about Biden heading the Democratic ticket. Among partisans, just under 8 in 10  Republicans and just under 7 in 10 Democrats say they are enthusiastic about the current front-runner becoming their respective party’s nominee, with Republicans (47%) being much more likely than Democrats (29%) to feel very enthusiastic about that potential outcome. Among Democrats, 60% of those under 65 years old are at least somewhat enthusiastic about Biden becoming their nominee, which is a lower level than among those age 65 and over (83%). There are no significant age differences in Republican voter enthusiasm about Trump becoming their nominee.

In a Biden-Trump rematch scenario, just over 4 in 10 registered voters say they will either definitely (31%) or probably (11%) vote for the Democratic incumbent and a similar number will definitely (31%) or probably (12%) support the Republican. Majorities, though, say they will not vote for either Biden (51% definitely not and 6% probably not) or Trump (48% definitely not and 8% probably not). These results mark a drop in Biden’s potential support since July (from 47% to 42% combined) while Trump’s support has ticked up slightly (from 40% to 43%). Biden’s decline is due mainly to a significant slip in support among Black, Latino, and Asian voters (from 63% definitely or probably in July to 47% now). Trump has picked up about half of that number (going from 23% among voters of color in July to 33% now.

The Monmouth University Poll also looked at the impact of current legal issues surrounding both candidates. Regarding Trump’s response to the 2020 election outcome, just under half of American voters (46%) think he committed a crime, 22% say he did something wrong but it was not criminal, and 29% said he did nothing wrong. For the incumbent, who is now facing an official impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives, 34% say Biden should be impeached and 16% say he may have violated his office but should not be impeached, while a plurality of 43% say Biden has not violated his oath of office in his actions as president so far.

Just 15% of the electorate has a lot of trust, 33% has a little trust, and 50% has no trust in the House to conduct a fair investigation into Biden. Back in November 2021, when the House formed a select committee to investigate then-President Trump, a slightly higher number (26%) had a lot of trust in that investigation, 31% had a little trust and 41% had no trust. Interestingly, Republicans (29%) are less likely to have a lot of trust in the current inquiry into Biden than Democrats (58%) had in the first Trump impeachment investigation.

More voters (93%) have actually heard about the recent legal troubles of the president’s son, Hunter, than have heard about the current impeachment inquiry (79%). Just over one-fourth (27%) of the electorate say that the younger Biden’s legal woes make them less likely to vote for the incumbent. Most of the voters who say the Hunter Biden issue may impact their vote identify themselves as Republicans and are unlikely to support the Democrat anyway. Voters who currently support Biden and say this issue may affect their support make up about 2% of the total electorate and another 2% identify as Democrats who do not currently support Biden.

“The actual impact of the Hunter Biden story may be small in statistical terms but one or two percentage points could be crucial in competitive states,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 19 to 24, 2023 with 814 adults in the United States. The question results in this release are based on 737 registered voters and have a margin of error +/- 4.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

[* Note: the poll questions on candidate age specifically did not mention how old either Trump or Biden are, so that the results represent extant opinion based on current knowledge and perceptions. Framing the questions with correct age information could change how some people respond and thus introduce error in measuring public opinion as it currently exists.]

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-7 previously released.]

[QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED]

8.      Is your general impression of Donald Trump very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

  Trend:

Registered voters

Sept2023

July2023

Aug.2022

Very favorable

19%

15%

22%

Somewhat favorable

19%

21%

20%

Somewhat unfavorable

12%

13%

9%

Very unfavorable

50%

50%

40%

(VOL) No opinion *

1%

1%

9%

(n)

(737)

(840)

(751)

    Trend:

Registered voters

Nov.2020

LateSept.2020

EarlySept.2020

Aug.2020

LateJune2020

EarlyJune2020

May2020

April2020

March2020

Feb.2020

Jan.2020

Dec.

2019

Nov.2019

Sept.2019

Very favorable

25%

27%

26%

23%

22%

26%

24%

24%

29%

35%

35%

33%

34%

30%

Somewhat favorable

16%

15%

14%

17%

16%

12%

16%

18%

17%

9%

8%

13%

10%

13%

Somewhat unfavorable

7%

7%

7%

8%

9%

9%

9%

7%

7%

6%

4%

5%

4%

6%

Very unfavorable

42%

44%

46%

46%

46%

48%

44%

43%

42%

47%

51%

47%

50%

50%

(VOL) No opinion *

10%

7%

6%

7%

7%

5%

7%

7%

5%

3%

2%

2%

2%

3%

(n)

(749)

(809)

(758)

(785)

(733)

(742)

(739)

(743)

(754)

(827)

(847)

(838)

(835)

(1,017)

            *Polls prior to 2023 included an explicit “no opinion” option in the question.

9.      Is your general impression of Joe Biden very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

  Trend:

Registered voters

Sept2023

July2023

Very favorable

18%

18%

Somewhat favorable

23%

25%

Somewhat unfavorable

14%

13%

Very unfavorable

45%

44%

(VOL) No opinion *

1%

0%

(n)

(737)

(840)

    Trend:

Registered voters

Nov.2020

LateSept.2020

EarlySept.2020

Aug.2020

LateJune2020

EarlyJune2020

May2020

April2020

March2020

Feb.2020

Jan.2020

Dec.

2019

Nov.2019

Sept.2019

Very favorable

22%

25%

26%

17%

16%

15%

15%

15%

18%

16%

19%

18%

18%

20%

Somewhat favorable

22%

22%

21%

25%

28%

27%

26%

26%

25%

24%

23%

25%

25%

26%

Somewhat unfavorable

15%

10%

9%

14%

13%

18%

16%

17%

17%

17%

16%

16%

17%

18%

Very unfavorable

31%

36%

35%

33%

31%

31%

28%

25%

26%

36%

33%

34%

33%

27%

(VOL) No opinion *

11%

7%

9%

12%

12%

9%

16%

17%

13%

8%

8%

7%

7%

9%

(n)

(749)

(809)

(758)

(785)

(733)

(742)

(739)

(743)

(754)

(827)

(847)

(838)

(835)

(1,017)

            *Polls prior to 2023 included an explicit “no opinion” option in the question.

[QUESTIONS 10 & 11 WERE ROTATED]

Looking ahead to next year’s presidential election, imagine the Democratic nominee is Joe Biden and the Republican nominee is Donald Trump. In this scenario…

10.    How likely are you to vote for Donald Trump – will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

  Trend:

Registered voters

Sept.2023

July2023

May2023

Definitely

31%

26%

29%

Probably

12%

14%

12%

Probably not

8%

8%

8%

Definitely not

48%

50%

46%

(VOL) Don’t know

1%

1%

4%

(n)

(737)

(840)

(907)

11.    How likely are you to vote for Joe Biden – will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

  Trend:

Registered voters

Sept.2023

July2023

May2023

Definitely

31%

36%

32%

Probably

11%

11%

13%

Probably not

6%

6%

7%

Definitely not

51%

46%

45%

(VOL) Don’t know

1%

1%

3%

(n)

(737)

(840)

(907)

[QUESTIONS 12 & 13 WERE ROTATED]

12.    How do you feel about the possibility of Donald Trump being the Republicans Party’s nominee for president in 2024. Are you very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Very enthusiastic

19%

Somewhat enthusiastic

18%

Not too enthusiastic

10%

Not at all enthusiastic

52%

(VOL) Don’t know

1%

(n)

(737)

13.    How do you feel about the possibility of Joe Biden being the Democratic Party’s nominee for president in 2024. Are you very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Very enthusiastic

14%

Somewhat enthusiastic

18%

Not too enthusiastic

15%

Not at all enthusiastic

53%

(VOL) Don’t know

1%

(n)

(737)

[QUESTIONS 14 & 15 WERE ROTATED]

Please tell me how much you agree or disagree with the following statements…

14.    Donald Trump is too old to effectively serve another term as president. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree?

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Strongly agree

26%

Somewhat agree

22%

Somewhat disagree

20%

Strongly disagree

30%

(VOL) Don’t know

2%

(n)

(737)

15.    Joe Biden is too old to effectively serve another term as president. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree?

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Strongly agree

55%

Somewhat agree

21%

Somewhat disagree

13%

Strongly disagree

10%

(VOL) Don’t know

1%

(n)

(737)

16.    Thinking back to the way Donald Trump responded to the 2020 presidential election outcome, do you think Trump committed a crime, did something wrong but not criminal, or did nothing wrong [CHOICES WERE READ IN REVERSE ORDER FOR A RANDOM HALF SAMPLE]

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Committed a crime

46%

Did something wrong but not criminal

22%

Did nothing wrong

29%

(VOL) Don’t know

3%

(n)

(737)

17.    Thinking about Joe Biden’s actions as president so far, do you think Biden should be impeached, may have violated his oath of office but should not be impeached, or has not violated his oath of office? [CHOICES WERE READ IN REVERSE ORDER FOR A RANDOM HALF SAMPLE]

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Should be impeached

34%

May have violated oath, but not impeached

16%

Has not violated his oath

43%

(VOL) Don’t know

7%

(n)

(737)

18.    Have you heard that the House of Representatives recently launched an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, or have you not heard about this?

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Heard

79%

Not heard

21%

(n)

(737)

19.    How much do you trust the House to conduct a fair investigation into President Biden – a lot, a little, or not at all?

Registered voters

Sept.2023

A lot

15%

A little

33%

Not at all

50%

(VOL) Don’t know

1%

(n)

(737)

20.    Have you heard about the legal troubles of President Biden’s son Hunter, or have you not heard about this?

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Heard

93%

Not heard

7%

(n)

(737)

21.    Do Hunter Biden’s legal troubles make you less likely to vote for Joe Biden or does this have no impact on your vote?

Registered voters

Sept.2023

Less likely

27%

No impact

72%

(VOL) Don’t know

1%

(n)

(737)

 

[Q22-30 previously released.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 19 to 24, 2023 with a probability-based national random sample of 814 adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 280 live landline telephone interviews, 286 live cell phone interviews, and 248 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n= 532), Aristotle (list, n= 106) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n= 176). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2021 one-year survey). The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 737 registered voters. For results based on the sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.54). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 24% Republican, 44% Independent, 31% Democrat

Sex: 47% Male, 52% Female

Age: 26% 18-34, 33% 35-54, 41% 55+

Race: 62% White, 12% Black, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian/Other

Education: 36% High school or less, 30% Some college, 18% 4 year degree, 17% graduate degree

MARGIN OF ERROR

unweighted  sample

moe(+/-)

REGISTERED VOTERS

 

737

4.5%

SELF-REPORTED PARTY ID

Republican

170

9.3%

Independent

337

6.6%

Democrat

226

8.1%

IDEOLOGY

Liberal

206

8.5%

Moderate

276

7.3%

Conservative

244

7.8%

GENDER

Male

359

6.4%

Female

375

6.3%

AGE

18-34

137

10.4%

35-54

229

8.0%

55+

367

6.3%

CHILDREN IN HOME

Yes

163

9.5%

No

572

5.1%

RACE

White, non-Hispanic

522

5.3%

Other

196

8.7%

COLLEGE GRADUATE

No degree

337

6.6%

4 year degree

398

6.1%

WHITE COLLEGE

White, no degree

236

7.9%

White, 4 year degree

285

7.2%

INCOME

<$50K

209

8.4%

$50 to <$100K

206

8.5%

$100K+

285

7.2%

 

Crosstabs may be found in the PDF file on the report webpage:  https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_100223/

 

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One response to “Monmouth Poll: Little Enthusiasm for Prez Frontrunners”

  1. Left-wing Monmouth U. Polling Director , Patrick Murray, is once again trying to convince voters to not vote for Trump, claiming age as a factor this time. Once again, the flawed poll get its wrong. Even though Monmouth U. polling shows Trump on the upswing in all voter categories, ABC Poll puts Trump ahead at 11% over Biden, while other major polls show Trump starting to pull away from Biden, not only because of Biden’s age, but because of Biden’s destructive policies for this country, especially with regard to the oil and gas industry and the uncontrolled border invasion (where we are seeing Communist Chinese military and African military entering the southern border to do us harm).

    And, then there’s the issue of over 100 MILLION voters who now support Trump. And, Trump will also be getting the rank and file auto workers after his campaign stop in Michigan to talk to them. Biden could only muster 9-10 people from the UAW, and these were all from the UAW’s President’s office. The few UAW leaders will vote for Biden, while the multitudes of auto workers will vote for Trump.

    I don’t see where any of the Monmouth U. polling shows any let up in support of Trump for President. It’s just another false statement by the Monmouth U. polling director to try and gas light New Jerseyans and Americans with false and fraudulent poll numbers.

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